Collecting Boxes & Packs - the Future?

[gonefishin]

I know there are those out there that collect unopened packs and boxes. Just wondering your thoughts regarding the future of unopened packs and boxes. Is this the new wave of collecting? I've noticed the selling prices for unopened items skyrocket over the last few years.

By the way, I'm referring to modern era boxes and packs, let's say from 1980 to current.

[packs]

Modern unopened is a big money market but it can only last as long as the chase players continue to make it worth chasing the product.

But even then, it's not hard to see the bottom falling out. For example, some of Soto's big rookie autos were redemptions. They have since expired.

When you look at pretty much every other player not named Mike Trout, their sky high prospect values have plummeted. You can buy Bowman first auto rookies of guys like Verlander / Kershaw / Goldschmidt / Mauer etc. for pretty cheap. I mean, there's an SGC 10 / 9 of Goldschmidt on eBay right now for $450. Sounds like a lot, but not when guys who are in A ball now command over a grand.

In the end, I would choose not to invest in modern unopened because it'll always be at its highest value a few years out from when it was released. And then decline over time after unless there's a Tom Brady / Mike Trout level talent that year.

[gonefishin]

Originally Posted by packs

Modern unopened is a big money market but it can only last as long as the chase players continue to make it worth chasing the product.

But even then, it's not hard to see the bottom falling out. For example, some of Soto's big rookie autos were redemptions. They have since expired.

When you look at pretty much every other player not named Mike Trout, their sky high prospect values have plummeted. You can buy Bowman first auto rookies of guys like Verlander / Kershaw / Goldschmidt / Mauer etc. for pretty cheap. I mean, there's an SGC 10 / 9 of Goldschmidt on eBay right now for $450. Sounds like a lot, but not when guys who are in A ball now command over a grand.

In the end, I would choose not to invest in modern unopened because it'll always be at its highest value a few years out from when it was released. And then decline over time after unless there's a Tom Brady / Mike Trout level talent that year.

Great observation and insight. What are your thoughts about early 90s boxes and packs - especially football and basketball?

[jasondeanmartin]

I'll give my thoughts but will give some insight into my unopened collection first. My collection is significant, maybe not in value but definitely in quantity. I started around 2014/15 and basically try to get one of everything possible (mostly retail or lower end hobby). But, when you do this for multiple sports, the number of packs adds up quickly. I easily have 1,000+ unopened packs from what feels like everything under the sun.

Now, my opinion on this.

Since the price increases from Panini, Topps, etc at the retail level, my collecting has tapered off. When it was $20 a blaster I could easily justify the price because I was getting 4-10 packs per blaster for that $20. However, now that many Panini blasters are $35, I cant justify that price. While, I'm not a hit seeker, I still like to somewhat get my money's worth in some shape or form. But, when you increase the price of a box by 75%, it's that much harder to get your money's worth.

I also collect toys and wrestling figures. Many of those figures were roughly $20 pre-pandemic but have now since raised to $22-24. That I can justify and it doesn't hurt the wallet as much. So, more of my money has been put in that direction.

Unopened wax will always be a thing. I just think the pandemic-era stuff has nowhere to go but down. Retailers are not selling boxes like they once were and I'm even seeing lower prices at card shows. We had the boom. Next is the bust and it's just a matter of time.

[isiahfan]

I sold all of my unopened boxes this last year....mostly baseball 1980-2020...and got stupid money for them all. I wouldn't change a thing. Even sold a bowman 2000 football for like $4K+...why? people want graded cards...or investmenst? Makes very little sense to me. Take 1980 Topps...really only the Henderson is of any value in that set and you can easily get an ungraded one that looks like an "8" or so...for BV...and the odds of getting one in a wax box are what???...80%ish...so why do the boxes go for $3500-5000?.....buy 20 NrMy sets for that

Same with the 82 set....

maybe with vingtage the graded return on stuff makes more sense...but 80 and newer ....can't reconcile it...

Or even worse.....$180 for a pack....not to rag on thers...but complete waste of money IMO

[jasondeanmartin]

You're right. I see buying newer boxes for chance at parallels. But, buying the older stuff.....BUY THE CARD YOU WANT AND SKIP THE BOX.

Originally Posted by isiahfan

I sold all of my unopened boxes this last year....mostly baseball 1980-2020...and got stupid money for them all. I wouldn't change a thing. Even sold a bowman 2000 football for like $4K+...why? people want graded cards...or investmenst? Makes very little sense to me. Take 1980 Topps...really only the Henderson is of any value in that set and you can easily get an ungraded one that looks like an "8" or so...for BV...and the odds of getting one in a wax box are what???...80%ish...so why do the boxes go for $3500-5000?.....buy 20 NrMy sets for that

Same with the 82 set....

maybe with vingtage the graded return on stuff makes more sense...but 80 and newer ....can reconcile it...

Or even worse.....$180 for a pack....not to rag on thers...but complete waste of money IMO

[hockeyhockey]

Originally Posted by isiahfan

I sold all of my unopened boxes this last year....mostly baseball 1980-2020...and got stupid money for them all. I wouldn't change a thing. Even sold a bowman 2000 football for like $4K+...why? people want graded cards...or investmenst? Makes very little sense to me. Take 1980 Topps...really only the Henderson is of any value in that set and you can easily get an ungraded one that looks like an "8" or so...for BV...and the odds of getting one in a wax box are what???...80%ish...so why do the boxes go for $3500-5000?.....buy 20 NrMy sets for that

Same with the 82 set....

maybe with vingtage the graded return on stuff makes more sense...but 80 and newer ....can't reconcile it...

Or even worse.....$180 for a pack....not to rag on thers...but complete waste of money IMO

hard to argue with any of this. when gettiing back into collecting a few years ago, i made a few mistakes on purchases. fortunately most of those mistakes were minor, and when the boom happened, pretty much evened out or profited on them.

the one i'd do over is buying a 1986 OPC hockey unopened box to try and treasure hunt for a patrick roy rookie. while it was fun, it was very costly. did end up selling off half the packs along with the actual box and some freebies i got. also graded a few cards and did well on them. but still lost a few hundred bucks. definitely a good lesson.

[Eric72]

A few observations and opinions:

Unless the cards are individually sleeved, many early UV coated products will "brick" (stick together) over time. This can ruin quite a few 90s releases, whether still in packs or stored loose in boxes. This (in my opinion) makes many early/mid 90s sealed products worthless. Imagine opening a pack and having the cards bonded together. I've been there...it's horrible...I can still hear the sound cards make when you peel them apart.

The recent BBCE episodes have weakened collector trust. Whether it's minor or major is a matter of opinion; however, I believe it killed their reputation. When GI Joe packs came out of a certified Pokemon case, it didn't look good. BBCE seemed to weather the storm, though. Their biggest mistake seemed to be stepping outside their areas of supposed expertise. Then, just when the Pokemon story seemed to fade, there was the 1986 Fleer Basketball box from the National. In the wake of that, BBCE doesn't seem to hold the same gravitas they once did. Additionally, they don't financially guarantee to make you whole if they've "authenticated" a tampered box.

Speaking of GI Joe cards appearing in cases where they don't belong, there are numerous instances in which people are defrauded by tampered product.
I'm certain there are lots of people who approach sealed product sales with integrity and class. However, there are also plenty of shady characters looking to part people with their hard-earned money. Unless you really know what you're doing, getting into collecting sealed product could very well include a steep and expensive learning curve.

So, you could pull a brick (literally) from your box, BBCE certification doesn't seem as safe as it used to, they don't guarantee their work, and random scammers are out there. If you're going into this, be very careful.

[gonefishin]

Thanks for all the "takes" and insight. Last week I purchased a lot of inventory from a small shop that closed in 1991 and there is quite a bit of unopened boxes from 90-91 that I'm deciding what to do with. I overpaid I'm sure, so I might have to hold onto it for a couple of years to recoup my money - or not. I'll see I guess. At least there was some basketball, and unopened basketball from that period seems to sell for a little more than baseball from that period. I normally only purchase vintage, but thought I would take a chance.

[Republicaninmass]

I cant figure out why, aside from the reason I own them.


I've bought many 2001 topps heritage wax boxes at auction over the past decade. I dont think they have moved more than a few bucks since they came out! I feel they have a lot going for them, but the market isnt rational

[packs]

I don't know how other people feel but I'd probably unload that basketball immediately. The market seems to be shrinking much more than other sports. Jordan / Kobe / LeBron all down.

[timzcardz]

I don’t collect unopened boxes as a focus, but they do play a part in my Ripken collection. Here are a few.

[gonefishin]

That's a different take on box collecting - I like it.

I went with my Mother/Father In Law and daughter to Ripkin's last farewell game in Anaheim. We sat directly behind the visiting dug out. Great memory.

[timzcardz]

Originally Posted by gonefishin

That's a different take on box collecting - I like it.

I went with my Mother/Father In Law and daughter to Ripkin's last farewell game in Anaheim. We sat directly behind the visiting dug out. Great memory.

Lots of good memories of games with the family and friends.

Saw Cal's second to last game at Yankee Stadium with my wife and sons. They were just shy of 11 and 8 at the time . . . my sons that is. My wife was older!

[Zach Wheat]

Originally Posted by Eric72

A few observations and opinions:

Unless the cards are individually sleeved, many early UV coated products will "brick" (stick together) over time. This can ruin quite a few 90s releases, whether still in packs or stored loose in boxes. This (in my opinion) makes many early/mid 90s sealed products worthless. Imagine opening a pack and having the cards bonded together. I've been there...it's horrible...I can still hear the sound cards make when you peel them apart.

The recent BBCE episodes have weakened collector trust. Whether it's minor or major is a matter of opinion; however, I believe it killed their reputation. When GI Joe packs came out of a certified Pokemon case, it didn't look good. BBCE seemed to weather the storm, though. Their biggest mistake seemed to be stepping outside their areas of supposed expertise. Then, just when the Pokemon story seemed to fade, there was the 1986 Fleer Basketball box from the National. In the wake of that, BBCE doesn't seem to hold the same gravitas they once did. Additionally, they don't financially guarantee to make you whole if they've "authenticated" a tampered box.

Speaking of GI Joe cards appearing in cases where they don't belong, there are numerous instances in which people are defrauded by tampered product.
I'm certain there are lots of people who approach sealed product sales with integrity and class. However, there are also plenty of shady characters looking to part people with their hard-earned money. Unless you really know what you're doing, getting into collecting sealed product could very well include a steep and expensive learning curve.

So, you could pull a brick (literally) from your box, BBCE certification doesn't seem as safe as it used to, they don't guarantee their work, and random scammers are out there. If you're going into this, be very careful.

Agree with Eric. Another consideration is pre-92 Topps packs have gum. I am concerned about the 1991 Topps Desert DS packs I have and gum staining. No way to tell unless the pack is opened.

[timzcardz]

Originally Posted by Eric72

Unless the cards are individually sleeved, many early UV coated products will "brick" (stick together) over time. This can ruin quite a few 90s releases, whether still in packs or stored loose in boxes. This (in my opinion) makes many early/mid 90s sealed products worthless. Imagine opening a pack and having the cards bonded together. I've been there...it's horrible...I can still hear the sound cards make when you peel them apart.

FWIW

Never peel them apart.

I am a structural engineer, and as bizarre as it may seem I have applied my professional knowledge and experience to separate stuck cards.

This is a little on the technical side but should get the point across.

When you separate the card by "peeling" them apart, the surface stuck together are put into tension, and many times that tensile connection between the surfaces is stronger than that of the surface to the underlying card and you end up tearing some of the surface of the card off.

The shear strength of the adhesion of the surfaces is not as strong though.

If you remove the stuck cards from the pack and rather than peel them you flex the cards as a whole. Grab the stuck pack of cards at each end and flex them together one way and then the other. You will find that the second flex the pack of cards seems less stiff. Then do the same at a 90 degree orientation (grabbing them along the long edge), and then proceed to also flex them grabbing at opposite corners. At this point the cards will normally separate.

The flexing of the cards creates shear planes between the surfaces of the cards due the slight differences in radii of the bend from card to card.

I have almost always had great results with this method.

Originally Posted by timzcardz

I don’t collect unopened boxes as a focus, but they do play a part in my Ripken collection. Here are a few.

By any chance do you have this one

[Deertick]

Originally Posted by timzcardz

.

The flexing of the cards creates shear planes between the surfaces of the cards due the slight differences in radii of the bend from card to card.

I have almost always had great results with this method.

Tim,
I always do this, very carefully, but a LOT of times I still get some damage (looks like snow) on one edge or another. Do you have any suggestions to 'pregame'? I have heard suggestions to freeze them, use a hair dryer, sit them in a steamy bathroom, etc, etc.

I guess it may be product dependent, but I wonder if you have any thoughts?

Thanks, Jim

[timzcardz]

Originally Posted by rgpete

By any chance do you have this one

No, I do not.

At the time of its issuance there were always lots of Fruit Roll-ups in the house but I have never seen this before.

Looking it up, apparently rather scarce.

[timzcardz]

Originally Posted by Deertick

Tim,
I always do this, very carefully, but a LOT of times I still get some damage (looks like snow) on one edge or another. Do you have any suggestions to 'pregame'? I have heard suggestions to freeze them, use a hair dryer, sit them in a steamy bathroom, etc, etc.

I guess it may be product dependent, but I wonder if you have any thoughts?

Thanks, Jim

No, I have not frozen, steamed, or anything elsed them.

Occasionally I have issues, but not a LOT.

Originally Posted by timzcardz

No, I do not.

At the time of its issuance there were always lots of Fruit Roll-ups in the house but I have never seen this before.

Looking it up, apparently rather scarce.

They were only sold at Sams Club

[gonefishin]

I wanted to "Bump - I guess that's the term" this thread for an update.

Casual observance tells me that unopened wax is still keeping pace and surging ahead. I don't understand why but it is. Does anyone out there think the surge will continue?

[mrmopar]

Between redemption cards and cards sticking together into bricks (or was this just a 90s thing?), I would want no part of newer unopened stuff to hold onto. I'd just prefer to open it.