With the stakes rising, how worried should we be about high quality counterfeit cards

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

We've all been watching and marveling at the exponential increase in card prices (modern and vintage) recently.

I know most people on this board and vintage collectors in general are honest folks. However, money tends to attract lots of different types of people...including scam artists and crooks.

We've always believed it is hard to counterfeit old, vintage cards. And I believe that to a degree. I think it would be hard if not impossible for most people to produce a believable counterfeit with easily accessible equipment.

However, over the last 12 months there are MANY cards that have crossed over the 50K range. Making it reasonable for a bad actor to invest a lot of money in to specialized equipment to produce fake cards in small batches and still be able to make a reasonable return.

And I have to be honest...the thread on this board a few months back regarding the Dover Reprint Cracker Jack card getting in to a PSA slab really spooked me. I mean, that card literally had the perforations showing and was still graded as an authentic card. That was a TERRIBLE fake. So my faith in PSA to be able to discern between an original and a professionally done counterfeit is low.

Unfortunately, I'm NOT in the group of people that has enough disposable income to be spending 50K on a card any time soon, but for those people that will be...is that something that should cross their mind? Do you think PSA and SGC are being extra diligent to be on the lookout for a fresh breed of crooks to enter the market along with all these high dollar buyers?

[Fred]

Great question - you have to figure that with stakes getting this high the TPGs better be on their toes. The next question - can we trust the TPGs? Pretty soon it will just be too expensive to have a high dollar card graded.

I thought the TPGs fees are based on the value of the card. Is that not correct? If so, how much is it going to cost to have a TPG encapsulate the following:

• T206 Green Cobb (VG-EX)
• 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth (any of them) (EX)
• Rookie Trout Chrome that recently sold for just stupid money

From my 30 plus years in graphic design, advertising and printing the technology and ability is there to create a perfect counterfeit vintage card. Vintage stocks can also be found. It's an expensive and time consuming project to faithfully recreate it but someone might try now that the stakes are getting higher. Cost has generally been the prohibitive factor in the past to make it worthwhile in my opinion.
I agree it's getting pretty scary with all the doctoring out there and fakes getting by grading companies. Makes me feel better that most of my nice vintage cards came from family collections or friends and were collected mostly before 1980. I'm extremely careful when buying vintage now especially since I collect raw cards.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Originally Posted by Wimberleycardcollector

From my 30 plus years in graphic design, advertising and printing the technology and ability is there to create a perfect counterfeit vintage card. Vintage stocks can also be found. It's an expensive and time consuming project to faithfully recreate it but someone might try now that the stakes are getting higher. Cost has generally been the prohibitive factor in the past to make it worthwhile in my opinion.

Yeah, this was the answer I was afraid of...and it sounds like you have some expertise in the printing process.

With the payoff apparently being exponentially larger recently, it may make it worth while for criminals to invest the time/money.

And if someone perfects an undetectable counterfeit method...then what?

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

Yeah, this was the answer I was afraid of...and it sounds like you have some expertise in the printing process.

With the payoff apparently being exponentially larger recently, it may make it worth while for criminals to invest the time/money.

And if someone perfects an undetectable counterfeit method...then what?

More cards for PSA!

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by Wimberleycardcollector

From my 30 plus years in graphic design, advertising and printing the technology and ability is there to create a perfect counterfeit vintage card. Vintage stocks can also be found. It's an expensive and time consuming project to faithfully recreate it but someone might try now that the stakes are getting higher. Cost has generally been the prohibitive factor in the past to make it worthwhile in my opinion.
I agree it's getting pretty scary with all the doctoring out there and fakes getting by grading companies. Makes me feel better that most of my nice vintage cards came from family collections or friends and were collected mostly before 1980. I'm extremely careful when buying vintage now especially since I collect raw cards.

I agree that the technology exists to make a counterfeit that could not be visually detected. Whether it can be made to also elude all measures of forensic detection is another question, as to accomplish that more is needed than just old paper stock. But given the financial incentive to do so, I wouldn't bet against it. The bottom line to me is that if an unknown copy of a highly desirable card (e.g., Baltimore News Ruth) was to suddenly turn up, without provenance to establish its existence to a period when the financial incentive to manufacture a counterfeit did not exist, I would not have the comfort level to consider acquiring it. And by provenance I am talking about more than just the story of the current owner attesting that it has been in the family for many years.

I will add that the existence of provenance IMO will begin to matter more and more in regard to condition rarity cards (e.g., 52 Topps Mantle). In that instance, the issue, besides whether the card is counterfeit, also is whether the card has been worked on. How many 1952 Topps Mantles 8 and higher do you think have not had work done on them? With that card, I think in time those that can be documented to come from the Rosen find will begin to sell for significant premiums. Being uncirculated cards not only are they much more likely to be unaltered, but also they posses a sheen and border whiteness that IMO give them noticeably greater eye appeal than non Rosen-find copies.

[Popcorn]

I’m more worried about usps “losing” packages, even registered mail ones.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Wimberleycardcollector

From my 30 plus years in graphic design, advertising and printing the technology and ability is there to create a perfect counterfeit vintage card. Vintage stocks can also be found. It's an expensive and time consuming project to faithfully recreate it but someone might try now that the stakes are getting higher. Cost has generally been the prohibitive factor in the past to make it worthwhile in my opinion.
I agree it's getting pretty scary with all the doctoring out there and fakes getting by grading companies. Makes me feel better that most of my nice vintage cards came from family collections or friends and were collected mostly before 1980. I'm extremely careful when buying vintage now especially since I collect raw cards.

I agree, I've been saying that a nearly undetectable fake is possible since about 1981. The only thing that prevented credible fakes of modern cards in the 80's was that most of the fakers did sloppy work.

Today there's so much more access to materials that I believe it's even more likely.

Even the ink formulations can probably be duplicated. The machine to figure out the exact composition costs less than many cards now.

[obcbobd]

I recall a year or two ago there it was proven that a large percentage of vintage autographed cards that were authenticated/graded had fake autographs. I had always thought that some day I would splurge big bucks on an autographed T206. Of course one graded/authenticated so I know its real. I no longer plan on making that splurge.

What happens if we reach a point that fakes get so good that people lose confidence in the grading companies to detect. Will people spend $100,000 on a card that might be a reprint?

[ASF123]

This one looks pretty darn good to me - none of the obvious telltale signs, and the print pattern looks like it *could* be legit if you were able to zoom in more closely/clearly.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1958-Topps-...EAAOSwGm1gNO8Y

Am I missing any dead giveaways about the card itself?

[mq711]

Originally Posted by steve B

I agree, I've been saying that a nearly undetectable fake is possible since about 1981. The only thing that prevented credible fakes of modern cards in the 80's was that most of the fakers did sloppy work.

Today there's so much more access to materials that I believe it's even more likely.

Even the ink formulations can probably be duplicated. The machine to figure out the exact composition costs less than many cards now.

I agree, a lot of counterfeit and altered cards are already graded and encapsulated never to be exposed to fresh air and further review again. And why would the owner subject their card to a review and loose a high grade or rare card. Even the talented folks on BO seem to determine alterations due to printing irregularities and not by detecting the actual adjustment.

The general hobby doesn’t seem to be concerned with the past scandals and the perpetrators seem to have dodged prosecution and continue to make hugh amounts of money. The only chance I see of anything changing is when an insurance company balks at paying a multimillion dollar claim and determines the cards in question were fake the whole time.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by mq711

I agree, a lot of counterfeit and altered cards are already graded and encapsulated never to be exposed to fresh air and further review again. And why would the owner subject their card to a review and loose a high grade or rare card. Even the talented folks on BO seem to determine alterations due to printing irregularities and not by detecting the actual adjustment.

The general hobby doesn’t seem to be concerned with the past scandals and the perpetrators seem to have dodged prosecution and continue to make hugh amounts of money. The only chance I see of anything changing is when an insurance company balks at paying a multimillion dollar claim and determines the cards in question were fake the whole time.

Extremely sad, but unfortunately very true.

Still holding out hope that the FBI is just being thorough and methodical in their investigation, rather than washing their hands of all this. The level of fraud and corruption is bigger than Mastro, Operation Bullpen, and the counterfeit signed T206 fiasco combined.

[jcmtiger]

Originally Posted by Fred

Great question - you have to figure that with stakes getting this high the TPGs better be on their toes. The next question - can we trust the TPGs? Pretty soon it will just be too expensive to have a high dollar card graded.

I thought the TPGs fees are based on the value of the card. Is that not correct? If so, how much is it going to cost to have a TPG encapsulate the following:

• T206 Green Cobb (VG-EX)
• 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth (any of them) (EX)
• Rookie Trout Chrome that recently sold for just stupid money

On the Cobb if you had it 10 yrs ago should have graded it then, probably$10,000 card then, now probably high $ 20,000 , not sure how they charge, had mine graded 20 years ago. Joe

[chadeast]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

And I have to be honest...the thread on this board a few months back regarding the Dover Reprint Cracker Jack card getting in to a PSA slab really spooked me. I mean, that card literally had the perforations showing and was still graded as an authentic card. That was a TERRIBLE fake. So my faith in PSA to be able to discern between an original and a professionally done counterfeit is low.

You're not alone. I recently returned to the hobby after a 9 year hiatus, and was dismayed (and also very impressed) to read about all of the work done over at Blowout in pulling back the curtain on the bad actor(s) in the PWCC situation. But it didn't really shock me, I've stuck with non-high grade vintage for a long time, partly because I never really trusted that the TPGs (or perhaps anyone) could detect expertly done trimming and/or doctoring.

But seeing that Connie Mack CJ reprint in a PSA slab really rocked me to my core. After I saw it, I just couldn't unsee it, if you know what I mean. It shattered my confidence in PSA.

[Casey2296]

One of the reasons I like my cards a little dirty.
-

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

One of the reasons I like my cards a little dirty.
-

Yes, I enjoy cards in that condition as well. In my opinion, the "natural state" of a pre war card is a 2 or 3 grade. Postwar 1950's cards it is probably a 4 or 5.

In my head cards that are better than that either were originally opened by a kid overly obsessed with keeping his "toys" nice, or I suspect something fishy might have occurred.

[Kevin]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

Yes, I enjoy cards in that condition as well. In my opinion, the "natural state" of a pre war card is a 2 or 3 grade. Postwar 1950's cards it is probably a 4 or 5.

In my head cards that are better than that either were originally opened by a kid overly obsessed with keeping his "toys" nice, or I suspect something fishy might have occurred.

Years ago, I bought a Davy Jones T206. It was in pristine condition. I had suspected I was ripped off and handled it so much, I think I dinged it. Looking back, no reason to fake a Davy Jones, but now...with the technology and stakes...I’m not so sure.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Kevin

Years ago, I bought a Davy Jones T206. It was in pristine condition. I had suspected I was ripped off and handled it so much, I think I dinged it. Looking back, no reason to fake a Davy Jones, but now...with the technology and stakes...I’m not so sure.

He was my favorite Monkey.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

We've all been watching and marveling at the exponential increase in card prices (modern and vintage) recently.

I know most people on this board and vintage collectors in general are honest folks. However, money tends to attract lots of different types of people...including scam artists and crooks.

We've always believed it is hard to counterfeit old, vintage cards. And I believe that to a degree. I think it would be hard if not impossible for most people to produce a believable counterfeit with easily accessible equipment.

However, over the last 12 months there are MANY cards that have crossed over the 50K range. Making it reasonable for a bad actor to invest a lot of money in to specialized equipment to produce fake cards in small batches and still be able to make a reasonable return.

And I have to be honest...the thread on this board a few months back regarding the Dover Reprint Cracker Jack card getting in to a PSA slab really spooked me. I mean, that card literally had the perforations showing and was still graded as an authentic card. That was a TERRIBLE fake. So my faith in PSA to be able to discern between an original and a professionally done counterfeit is low.

Unfortunately, I'm NOT in the group of people that has enough disposable income to be spending 50K on a card any time soon, but for those people that will be...is that something that should cross their mind? Do you think PSA and SGC are being extra diligent to be on the lookout for a fresh breed of crooks to enter the market along with all these high dollar buyers?

People that can spend 50k on a card (not me) have to consider fakes and be aware. If they don't they will eventually be out of some money, just as soon as the music stops.

Reminds me of the time, several years back, I bought a PRO graded Ruth ...To that point I had only seen really bad grading in their holders. After that I unfortunately found out they also graded fakes as originals. Regarding TPGs, I am happy another one is ramping up. If I am correct, they are the only one of the regular TPGs (and I think they will be regular) that offer a guaranty on their graded cards, and not just for the incorrectly done grading fees.





.

[drcy]

Provenance, provenance, provenance.

It doesn't matter if a card is counterfeited in 2021 if you have proof your card existed in 2018

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Originally Posted by Leon

People that can spend 50k on a card (not me) have to consider fakes and be aware. If they don't they will eventually be out of some money, just as soon as the music stops.

Reminds me of the time, several years back, I bought a PRO graded Ruth ...To that point I had only seen really bad grading in their holders. After that I unfortunately found out they also graded fakes as originals. Regarding TPGs, I am happy another one is ramping up. If I am correct, they are the only one of the regular TPGs (and I think they will be regular) that offer a guaranty on their graded cards, and not just for the incorrectly done grading fees.







.

Hi Leon,

As for the Fro-Joy Ruth, isn't it still technically possible that the one you pictured is real? I know that SGC (and PSA I believe) stopped grading that issue. Presumably because they couldn't discern between the real ones and the numerous fake ones?

I looked in to purchasing one of those a few years back but gave up...because if SGC and PSA admitted they can't tell the difference, then I wouldn't have a chance. It's not like I could just buy a few authentic commons to analyze the look, feel, smell, etc. (which is my usual practice before I buy something expensive)...because every card in the set is a Ruth

[Leon]

Originally Posted by thatkidfromjerrymaguire

Hi Leon,

As for the Fro-Joy Ruth, isn't it still technically possible that the one you pictured is real? I know that SGC (and PSA I believe) stopped grading that issue. Presumably because they couldn't discern between the real ones and the numerous fake ones?

I looked in to purchasing one of those a few years back but gave up...because if SGC and PSA admitted they can't tell the difference, then I wouldn't have a chance. It's not like I could just buy a few authentic commons to analyze the look, feel, smell, etc. (which is my usual practice before I buy something expensive)...because every card in the set is a Ruth

It is 100% real. SGC is incompetent to be able to grade them.

.