Different bidding patterns

[Peter_Spaeth]

This is more anecdotal than scientific, but I am frequently struck by how some cards on ebay and to an extent in auctions start out pretty slowly and either gradually run up or don't have much movement until the very end; whereas some just seem to charge out of the box and be at a high percentage of value within a day or two or few.

If I were a cynic, I would say it's sometimes (often even) the difference between legitimate bidding, and cards being pushed up by their consignors.

But of course I'm not a cynic so it's all good.

[Casey2296]

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It seems to me with auction houses there is an initial surge day one with placeholder bids, bidding slowly going up during the 3 week period the auction is open as more bidders become aware, and another bump the day before and day of auction on certain cards as bidders focus on what they want.

The true action is always extended bidding period when it goes lot by lot, although I've seen some cards sell at the bid just prior to extended bidding if they've been run up.
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[BioCRN]

If it's a card I really want then I bid somewhat high to get less eyes on the auction from those looking a bargain later. It takes a 2nd person with a bid-high(ish) mindset to make it work, though.

I want people to bow out early or decide the buy-in is already too high (or too close to it) before they bid and get reminders about it.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I wish I had any theory as to bidding patterns. We have auctions where we get to 50% of projections with a week or more left and other times we don't get there until 3 or 4 days left, yet in each case the auction ends up roughly on projection. Lately it's been even more unpredictable.

[Peter_Spaeth]

In the good old PWCC days, there were certain types of cards that would run up to 90 percent right out of the gate.

[raulus]

Based on the OP, I’m guessing this is intended to be an expose on shilling and other shenanigans.

So I guess we had better first decide whether there’s shilling or not. If there is shilling, then that could explain some of the zooming right out of the gate. Although there’s every possibility a good zoom could be legit, just with a couple of bidders deciding to not wait in terms of trying to out-bid each other. And there’s nothing to prevent a shill from waiting until the last minute to do their thing.

I tend to suspect that shilling is less prevalent than we fear, but probably not zero. But unless you’re the one doing the shilling, it’s hard to really know whether there’s shilling involved, or just another motivated collector you’re competing against. Even if the card comes right back onto the market, that’s not a dead giveaway that the auction was shilled, although it definitely gives you a bad taste.

I do think with eBay that sniping services make a difference, as there’s no ability to keep bidding once the auction ends. Get your bids in and that’s it. It’s not uncommon with that format to see a big jump in the last 5 seconds as the snipes come rolling in. And sometimes a couple of snipers put in ludicrous bids because they don’t want to lose, and figure no one else will be stupid enough to go that high. So one of them gets to pay 5x what it’s worth just because they didn’t want to lose. And the loser gets to have that comp thrown in their face for the next few years when they try to buy another one.

With the more traditional AH format that doesn’t allow for sniping, most auctions do seem to wait until the end, and that’s not surprising. I have participated in some serious zooms right out of the gate when some other bidder and I just decided there was no point in waiting. The other guy ended up winning, so I’m assuming he wasn’t just a shill, especially because the card didn’t come back onto the market.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

In the good old PWCC days, there were certain types of cards that would run up to 90 percent right out of the gate.

I am still seeing that with a certain house but nothing like the BS that took place in the days of PWCC. No incentive for any bidder, unless it is their consignment, to see a huge run up. It is not a race.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I like that term for it, a zoom.

[doug.goodman]

For ebay style, specifically defined end time auctions, I put in a bid at the beginning, then I bid above what the item is worth to me with a few seconds remaining.

If I lose, I lose, I didn't really want to win at that price.

If I win at my max bid, then I think about other items I have won for less than I was willing to pay and feel like it averaged out.

If I win at less than my max bid, that's best.



For extended bidding type auctions, I employ the same general strategy, but bid to the next bid increment as late as possible.

My last bid is the first bid increment above what the item is worth to me.

[Exhibitman]

The auction rules change bidding strategy, which affects when bidding action takes place. For example:

Sterling: "One bid in the entire auction prior to 8:00 PM EST on September 19, this bid is all you need to qualify to bid on ANY item in the auction during the extended bidding session."

LOTG: " In order to bid on an item during the extended bidding session beginning on the date of the auction close, you must place at least one bid on that item prior to 9:00 PM Eastern on the auction closing date. If you do not bid on it by 9PM Eastern on the closing date, you cannot bid on it afterward."

I will throw out a bid in Sterling early on 1 lot then wait until the last night to bid on everything else. For LOTG, REA, etc., I may spend a couple of hours placing initial bids on 100s of lots.

[Zach Wheat]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

For ebay style, specifically defined end time auctions, I put in a bid at the beginning, then I bid above what the item is worth to me with a few seconds remaining.

If I lose, I lose, I didn't really want to win at that price.

If I win at my max bid, then I think about other items I have won for less than I was willing to pay and feel like it averaged out.

If I win at less than my max bid, that's best.



For extended bidding type auctions, I employ the same general strategy, but bid to the next bid increment as late as possible.

My last bid is the first bid increment above what the item is worth to me.

I think Doug hits the ideal bidding style for me right on

[Snapolit1]

I’m definitely see the trend Pete identified. Particularly in modern.

When the latest stupid Superfractor 1/1 card shows up all of a sudden it’s bid up to $550,000 in a week. Why? Makes zero sense. There are only 3 or 4 people out there with that kind of cash looking to buy something like that. And I am sure they are mega-wealthy busy people and aren’t logging in to a website every night and placing meaningless bids to draw attention to something they would really like.

[ccre]

This is exactly how I do it as well.

Originally Posted by BioCRN

If it's a card I really want then I bid somewhat high to get less eyes on the auction from those looking a bargain later. It takes a 2nd person with a bid-high(ish) mindset to make it work, though.

I want people to bow out early or decide the buy-in is already too high (or too close to it) before they bid and get reminders about it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

My guess is that bidding strategies designed to impact the motivation/behavior of other bidders are wishful thinking and in a controlled experiment would not work out any differently than bidding late.

[Snapolit1]

I'm guessing the best bidding strategy is prob to bid for the first time 5 seconds before early bidding closes. In that case you have affected nothing and done nothing to draw attention to the auction.

But what fun is that.

[ALR-bishop]

I guess I need to devise a strategy.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

I guess I need to devise a strategy.

You will be OK Al. I have tried many bidding strategies on eBay to scare away other bidders with no luck.

[perezfan]

The phenomenon I will never understand is this (which happens ALL THE TIME...)

An item goes over a week with no bids at all. Then I place the initial bid on it. Within one minute it gets another bid (after a week or two of complete stagnancy). I can't count the number of times this has happened.

Are there really vultures who refrain from bidding for a week to 10 days, but are watching so closely that they pounce as soon as someone else bids? And what good is that strategy, given the fact that the closing is still a few days away?

What possible rationale do they have and what benefit do they derive from it?

[ruth-gehrig]

Originally Posted by perezfan

The phenomenon I will never understand is this (which happens ALL THE TIME...)

An item goes over a week with no bids at all. Then I place the initial bid on it. Within one minute it gets another bid (after a week or two of complete stagnancy). I can't count the number of times this has happened.

Are there really vultures who refrain from bidding for a week to 10 days, but are watching so closely that they pounce as soon as someone else bids? And what good is that strategy, given the fact that the closing is still a few days away?

What possible rationale do they have and what benefit do they derive from it?

Not a whole lot makes rational sense when it comes to bidding strategies in my opinion. I gave up on thinking much about it a long time ago . I think people allow their emotions to get involved which really throws clear thinking out the window lol

[Yoda]

I think whatever your strategy you have to figure in bidder madness during extended bidding.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

This is more anecdotal than scientific, but I am frequently struck by how some cards on ebay and to an extent in auctions start out pretty slowly and either gradually run up or don't have much movement until the very end; whereas some just seem to charge out of the box and be at a high percentage of value within a day or two or few.

If I were a cynic, I would say it's sometimes (often even) the difference between legitimate bidding, and cards being pushed up by their consignors.

But of course I'm not a cynic so it's all good.

I have noticed this for a long time on many sites. Not sure of the rhyme or reason, but it definitely is worth a look.

I think the bigger issue when said cards are auctioned off again in the next few months after the auctions ends. Lots of retreads show up and they show often. I am most wary of those.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by perezfan

The phenomenon I will never understand is this (which happens ALL THE TIME...)

An item goes over a week with no bids at all. Then I place the initial bid on it. Within one minute it gets another bid (after a week or two of complete stagnancy). I can't count the number of times this has happened.

Are there really vultures who refrain from bidding for a week to 10 days, but are watching so closely that they pounce as soon as someone else bids? And what good is that strategy, given the fact that the closing is still a few days away?

What possible rationale do they have and what benefit do they derive from it?

Does this happen more with particular auctions?

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

I have noticed this for a long time on many sites. Not sure of the rhyme or reason, but it definitely is worth a look.

I think the bigger issue when said cards are auctioned off again in the next few months after the auctions ends. Lots of retreads show up and they show often. I am most wary of those.

I call them Musical Chair Comps...

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I call them Musical Chair Comps...

No way those cards are all people legitimately trying to flip them which would require a 20 percent gain just to break even. There is no visibility at all into auctions, we don't know who consigned, we don't know who bid, we don't know who won or "won."

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

In the good old PWCC days, there were certain types of cards that would run up to 90 percent right out of the gate.

These are almost always cards with extraordinary eye appeal or cards that are in high demand and that are very difficult to just find any copy of.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

These are almost always cards with extraordinary eye appeal or cards that are in high demand and that are very difficult to just find any copy of.

Non sequitur. One, what does that have to do with the bidding pattern, if I really wanted a card on ebay the last thing I would do was keep running it up and bidding against myself six hours after it was listed. Two, with PWCC it was by no means limited to special cards. Three, it seemed very frequently the bids were placed by the same bidders, and or bidders with huge numbers of retractions.

[Snapolit1]

Many times I visit auctions I check out "Recent Bids".

I often see something cool this way and throw down a bid. Gets me out of my usual searches.

I do appreciate how this can look odd, coming out of nowhere.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Does this happen more with particular auctions?

[JollyElm]

1055. The Multiple Bid Absurdity Principle
The rationale that any bid made during the course of an auction is a wasted bid, because it harms you by needlessly and artificially raising the price of the item. Logically speaking, the ONLY bid one should ever make is an all-in, last moment snipe bid.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Does this happen more with particular auctions?

Here's who comes to mind, regarding that circumstance...

Huggins & Scott
Heritage
Lelands
Clean Sweep
REA
Hunt's
Mears
Memory Lane
Mile High
Hake's

Other than the fact that REA now owns Huggins, I see no commonality there. So I would say it's a widespread phenomenon.

[raulus]

I guess LOTG is exempt from those patterns!!??