The Dangers of "Prospecting" and its Impact on Vintage

[Seven]

I don't think any of us, are unfamiliar with this concept or term. I feel like It really took off in the late 80s (Greg Jefferies anyone?) with the hobby boom. With the recent explosion of the past few years, It seems like people are leaving themselves more open to huge financial loses. I feel like this is more prevalent now, than ever before in the social media age, with many younger people wanting to be "Famous Influencers."

The latest case that I ran into, was something I saw on Twitter. I mostly use the platform for breaking sports transactions, but this came across my page recently.

https://twitter.com/cblez/status/1623144423445131264

For those of you who can't see the link, It's some social media "card guru" that explains that he paid $50,000 for a 1 of 1 Austin Martin Signed Card, which has seriously tanked in value. Almost if like "investing" in these rookies is like playing with penny stocks. Never mind all the wonderful vintage he could have bought with that sum! As a side note, I'd love to hear what everyone over here would use that 50K for.

Back to the true point of the post, the outrageous prices of some modern cards, the minuscule chances of any of these players actually putting up numbers that would justify these insane prices, combined with the fact that "1 of 1" means nothing at all at this point, makes me think that that the modern market will fall to pieces in a similar way the hobby on the whole did, in 1994. I do however think that while it will drive the "new money" away from modern, those in vintage, or are getting into vintage, are here to stay. Nothing is going to change CY Young's 511 Wins, Ruth's 714 Homers, or Cobb's 4189 Hits. They'll continue to remain strong, and the new blood in the Vintage side of the hobby, will continue to be involved for years to come. What are everyone's thoughts on this?

[ClementeFanOh]

Interesting topic, Seven... I am not surprised by your anecdotes about
modern "prospectors"; however, I am VERY glad I'm not one of them.
Absent the notion of collecting actually to have fun (!!), I'll never understand
why someone looking to invest would skip obviously successful cards,
in favor of guys who have never been to the plate, or taken a shot, or thrown
a football. Seems like I am affirming your opinion on this one.

I have one anecdote that has stuck with me about this topic. About 30 years
ago, I bought a box of baseball (can't even remember what company). The
box cost maybe $20, and I pulled a Tim Salmon insert card. I
took the card to a show a month later, and someone paid me $60 for the card.
I bought a Hank Aaron card with that money Trent King

[Seven]

Originally Posted by ClementeFanOh

Interesting topic, Seven... I am not surprised by your anecdotes about
modern "prospectors"; however, I am VERY glad I'm not one of them.
Absent the notion of collecting actually to have fun (!!), I'll never understand
why someone looking to invest would skip obviously successful cards,
in favor of guys who have never been to the plate, or taken a shot, or thrown
a football. Seems like I am affirming your opinion on this one.

I have one anecdote that has stuck with me about this topic. About 30 years
ago, I bought a box of baseball (can't even remember what company). The
box cost maybe $20, and I pulled a Tim Salmon insert card. I
took the card to a show a month later, and someone paid me $60 for the card.
I bought a Hank Aaron card with that money Trent King

Trent,
Thanks for your take on my post. I'll never for the life of me, understand it either. I will admit, I occasionally buy a modern box, just to rip open a few packs. Sure, cards today are more of a financial interest then they used to be, but I could never collect something I didn't like. I'll stick to my long retired players, when it comes to buying cardboard.

The Tim Salmon story is perfect for this example. Salmon was certainly no slouch as a player. A solid, consistent contributor, that many Angels fans have come to adore. He is certainly, no Hank Aaron though! Do you still have the Aaron? Would love to see the card you bought, if you still have it!

- James

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Let uneducated fools be fools. It's unavoidable.

[rjackson44]

Aston martin terrible investment austin martin even worse lol

[nineunder71]

Originally Posted by rjackson44

Aston martin terrible investment austin martin even worse lol

This is Funny!

[ClementeFanOh]

To Seven (James)- I agree, once in a great while I buy packs or a box just
to rip open packs

I no longer have the Aaron from the Salmon anecdote. He must have gone on
to bigger and better things. Trent

[nineunder71]

I enjoy prospecting my Rockies (talk about a bad investment)

I enjoy it because they add to my collection and bring happiness. Regarding modern, I only collect what I enjoy, which is Rockies prospects and early Nolan Arenado cards.

There is No Doubt the Modern Prospecting world is a house of cards and it will tumble to zero.. Penny stocks is a great comparison. Most go to zero over time and a rare needle in the haystack pops now and then. The investors are hoping for the needle, collectors are just building for future enjoyment. (And doing so within a reasonable budget for that collector)

If that same guy in the story didn’t blow his 50K on a stupid purchase baseball card, he probably would have made a much better purchase with a non-fungible token of the same Austin Martin card. We can’t stop this and while I feel bad for all the people losing money they can’t afford....these are just hard lessons learned.

Now, Go Rockies! Our PR team says we have a chance at .500 ball this year

[Directly]

I'm in the category of buying the new, it sells, the key sell while the player are in hype speculation--my gig open the new, and sell for stupid prices--example--2019-20 Zion and Morant, 2020 Burrow and Herbert, 2022 Rodriguez, I've sold many new cards in the 500.00 range the list goes on and on every year, yep they could have bought a Mantle but not the big instant WOW hit $$$ return. A young buyer pulled a Jalen Green #10 RC graded a 10 sold for $3,000 and didn't think it was enough (?) out of a $15.00 pack so now he is hooked on the new like most younger speculators. I have put up many NEW unopened boxes ( probably too many) to cover the fascination of our younger generation buying habits.

[Gorditadogg]

Sure, vintage cards are safer than modern. Your cards' prices won't go up or down by as much.

If you are in the hobby to make money, though, you are still speculating. The fact is that for cards to have more value, more people must want to buy them. The question is, as us old farts die off and the new modern collectors lose interest and go away, who will that be?

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[Seven]

Originally Posted by rjackson44

Aston martin terrible investment austin martin even worse lol

Octavio, that gave me a good chuckle. Couldn't agree more.

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Sure, vintage cards are safer than modern. Your cards' prices won't go up or down by as much.

If you are in the hobby to make money, though, you are still speculating. The fact is that for cards to have more value, more people must want to buy them. The question is, as us old farts die off and the new modern collectors lose interest and go away, who will that be?

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

I think there are enough younger people involved in the Hobby, especially on the vintage side that will keep it strong. The overwhelming majority of my collection, was either long retired or dead by the time I picked up their cards. Hell, Mickey Mantle, my main collecting interest, retired 25 years before I was born! When you're regaled with stories of Aaron, Mantle and Koufax in your childhood, you end up wanting to collect them!

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Seven

I think there are enough younger people involved in the Hobby, especially on the vintage side that will keep it strong. The overwhelming majority of my collection, was either long retired or dead by the time I picked up their cards. Hell, Mickey Mantle, my main collecting interest, retired 25 years before I was born! When you're regaled with stories of Aaron, Mantle and Koufax in your childhood, you end up wanting to collect them!

Good for you! I hope you convince your friends to be collectors too. Here's a modern Mantle to help bridge the gap.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Steven, it’s like a penny stocks impact on mega-cap blue-chip dividend aristocrats. The good major big names, Ruth, Jackie, Mantle, and Mays 50’s and earlier quality high-end vintage aren't going down.

ZERO IMPACT

I don't think there's necessarily zero impact. I think the people that want to stay in the Hobby, will do so, just go more into the vintage side of things once the modern market falls flat. I think we see vintage, stagnate for a small while. I do agree I certainly don't think the value of it goes down. But I think for the next few years, outside of the Cobbs, Ruths, and Mantles of the world, I can't see it climbing much higher. But I of course could be wrong.

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Good for you! I hope you convince your friends to be collectors too. Here's a modern Mantle to help bridge the gap.

I wish more of my friends collected! Very few do. Though I have one, that loves the memorabilia side of the game!

[butchie_t]

Here is my take: When prospecting, you never dig for young, you dig for old and go for the gold.

JMHO

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Seven

Nothing is going to change CY Young's 511 Wins, Ruth's 714 Homers, or Cobb's 4189 Hits.

Funny, I remember when it was 4191 hits.

[Stevetbaum]

I think prospectors are more likely than vintage collectors to be buyers of scratch off lottery tickets.

They buy them because they like the thrill of gambling. And there is a bit of research involved so they can pay themselves on the back if they “hit.”

No self-respecting person should play slot machines or buy a lottery ticket; yet surprisingly enough they do. Whatever is the underlying emotion that compels them to do that is likely what drove this guy to pay $50k for a card of nobody who wants to be a somebody but will never be an anybody.


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[Fred]

Originally Posted by Seven

I don't think any of us, are unfamiliar with this concept or term. I feel like It really took off in the late 80s (Greg Jefferies anyone?) with the hobby boom. With the recent explosion of the past few years, It seems like people are leaving themselves more open to huge financial loses. I feel like this is more prevalent now, than ever before in the social media age, with many younger people wanting to be "Famous Influencers."

The latest case that I ran into, was something I saw on Twitter. I mostly use the platform for breaking sports transactions, but this came across my page recently.

https://twitter.com/cblez/status/1623144423445131264

For those of you who can't see the link, It's some social media "card guru" that explains that he paid $50,000 for a 1 of 1 Austin Martin Signed Card, which has seriously tanked in value. Almost if like "investing" in these rookies is like playing with penny stocks. Never mind all the wonderful vintage he could have bought with that sum! As a side note, I'd love to hear what everyone over here would use that 50K for.

Back to the true point of the post, the outrageous prices of some modern cards, the minuscule chances of any of these players actually putting up numbers that would justify these insane prices, combined with the fact that "1 of 1" means nothing at all at this point, makes me think that that the modern market will fall to pieces in a similar way the hobby on the whole did, in 1994. I do however think that while it will drive the "new money" away from modern, those in vintage, or are getting into vintage, are here to stay. Nothing is going to change CY Young's 511 Wins, Ruth's 714 Homers, or Cobb's 4189 Hits. They'll continue to remain strong, and the new blood in the Vintage side of the hobby, will continue to be involved for years to come. What are everyone's thoughts on this?

A social media knucklehead with money doesn't make him a card guru - it makes him someone with money that hasn't got a clue.

I'd feel like an idiot telling everyone I spent $50K on a card that is going to be worth dog crap soon. Look at all the vintage stuff you can get for $50K - wow (ok, not near as much as lets say, 5 years ago). Complete sets, Cobb, Ruth and all the other one time hot rookies/players...

Let's say Tatis Jr actually puts up obscene numbers for the next 5 years. People will be jumping all over his 1/1s, shiny crap and rookie cards. What happens after he starts putting up normal numbers and reaches his 30th birthday and everybody is on the next potentially hot rookie/player. I have a difficult time believing those Tatis cards will continue to increase in value. Hell, by the time Tatis hits his 30th birthday, the whole phenomena/stupidity of buying all these crazy modern cards will probably be over. All those people that spent TONS of money on those cards will be wondering what happened to their "investments". That whole "asset class" of cardboard will become a passe investment strategy that turned into losses for the people that didn't have a clue. Oh, I guess I could be wrong - somehow, I think not.

[JollyElm]

I love these hobby 'influencers.' They influence me to never watch one of their videos or ever listen to a word they say about anything. Perfect.