1933 low-number Goudeys, a key question

[GregMitch34]

I've just started getting more into the 33 Goudeys and as a non-expert I am wondering about this (which pertains to some other issues and individual cards as well)" The low numbers, 1-24, from the "first sheet," have long been considered harder to get and in higher grades seem to be produce prices about double, or more in some cases, for both HOFers and commons. Yet, if you look at PSA pop report, their graded numbers, while lower, don't seem--to me--to call for such a hike, in both total numbers and high-grade examples. As I said, we see this in other issues too where the alleged relative "scarcity" doesn't appear quite solid but prices continue at higher level.

So, what's the main reason for the much higher value in these Goudeys? 1) Pop report doesn't reflect fact that because the 1-24 are more valuable nearly all of the better ones have already been graded, which is not true for others 2) prices got inflated before pop reports gained in usage and people are mainly going on that rather than basing it on actual pop 3) any "low number" tag, even if differences not that great, is especially key for an issue with many, many graded cards out there and a lot of collectors--and so few come up for auction 4) all of the above or 5) something I have no doubt not thought of.

Thanks for any reply. Or any commentary on pop reports vs. sales value for any other issue or card, a more far-reaching angle. The pop reports have been around forever--are people using them more now or still relying on price guides?

[Brian Van Horn]

Let's add to this discussion. If the lower numbers are so "rare" why is it that Lyons is so easy to obtain?

[Leon]

It could be as simple as when the sets were played with and stored by kids the top ones (low numbers) got most of the abuse, rubber bands, bicycle spokes etc...Similar to the 1950s-1980s issues we used to play with....(and the obviously inferior paper )

[Chris Counts]

The low numbers (the first two series I believe) are clearly printed on inferior cardboard. There's no doubt some nice high grade examples exist out there, but there seems to be a lot more really beat-up ones.

[GregMitch34]

You're right about the different cardboard...

[steve B]

Number one is probably the closest.

I doubt all or even nearly all the best ones are graded. But what I've seen in the sets I've really looked at pop numbers for is the cards that are more in demand or are believed to be tougher are graded more often.

So someone considering grading some Goudeys they found would be more likely to grade a low number even in mid grade.

A prime example of this skewing is the T206 Magie/Magee. If the overall number is broken down by which back a card has, the much tougher Magie is by pop report the most common at SGC, and a very close second at PSA.

Steve B