1933 low-number Goudeys, a key question
 

I've just started getting more into the 33 Goudeys and as a non-expert I am wondering about this (which pertains to some other issues and individual cards as well)" The low numbers, 1-24, from the "first sheet," have long been considered harder to get and in higher grades seem to be produce prices about double, or more in some cases, for both HOFers and commons. Yet, if you look at PSA pop report, their graded numbers, while lower, don't seem--to me--to call for such a hike, in both total numbers and high-grade examples. As I said, we see this in other issues too where the alleged relative "scarcity" doesn't appear quite solid but prices continue at higher level.

So, what's the main reason for the much higher value in these Goudeys? 1) Pop report doesn't reflect fact that because the 1-24 are more valuable nearly all of the better ones have already been graded, which is not true for others 2) prices got inflated before pop reports gained in usage and people are mainly going on that rather than basing it on actual pop 3) any "low number" tag, even if differences not that great, is especially key for an issue with many, many graded cards out there and a lot of collectors--and so few come up for auction 4) all of the above or 5) something I have no doubt not thought of.

Thanks for any reply. Or any commentary on pop reports vs. sales value for any other issue or card, a more far-reaching angle. The pop reports have been around forever--are people using them more now or still relying on price guides?

Let's add to this discussion. If the lower numbers are so "rare" why is it that Lyons is so easy to obtain?

It could be as simple as when the sets were played with and stored by kids the top ones (low numbers) got most of the abuse, rubber bands, bicycle spokes etc...Similar to the 1950s-1980s issues we used to play with....(and the obviously inferior paper :))

The low numbers (the first two series I believe) are clearly printed on inferior cardboard. There's no doubt some nice high grade examples exist out there, but there seems to be a lot more really beat-up ones.

You're right about the different cardboard...

Number one is probably the closest.

I doubt all or even nearly all the best ones are graded. But what I've seen in the sets I've really looked at pop numbers for is the cards that are more in demand or are believed to be tougher are graded more often.

So someone considering grading some Goudeys they found would be more likely to grade a low number even in mid grade.

A prime example of this skewing is the T206 Magie/Magee. If the overall number is broken down by which back a card has, the much tougher Magie is by pop report the most common at SGC, and a very close second at PSA.

Steve B

A PSA 8 Thevenow--a number #36--went for a staggering $4150 last night at eBay, surely based on pop reports...

From PSACard.com
 

Set Production

The 1933 Goudey cards were produced with vivid colors and sensational artwork showing both portrait and action shots. They were printed on ten 24 card sheets that were released throughout 1933, with each card measuring roughly 2 3/8" by 2 7/8".

Sheet 1 (cards 1-5, 25-35 & 45-52), sheet 2 (cards 6-24 & 36-40), sheet 3 (cards 41-44, 58-67, 75-79 & 92-96), sheet 4 (cards 100-105, 115-120 & 130-141), sheet 5 (53-57, 68-74 & 80-91), sheet 6 (cards 143-165 with card 144 printed twice), and sheet 7 (cards 166-189), all have the red label at the bottom of the cards that reads "Big League Chewing Gum".

Sheet 8 (cards 190-213), sheet 9 (cards 97-99, 128-129, 142 & 214-231), and sheet 10 (cards 107-114, 121-127 & 232-240) have no label on the front of the card. The final production sheet contains an equal number of players from the 1933 World Series teams, the Washington Senators and New York Giants. While the exact release date of sheet 10 is not known, we can assume it was sometime after October 7, 1933 since the write-ups on the backs of these cards reference World Series events.

Series Pricing

The 1933 Goudey set is broken into two sections for pricing. Sheets 1 and 2 are considered the "low number" cards. They were printed on inferior cardboard compared to the remainder of the sheets and, as a result, are much more difficult to locate in high grade today. The Sports Market Report (SMR) lists the value of PSA 8 low series commons at $1,000. That is roughly a 235% premium to the $425 SMR value of cards from the other series or sheets.

In fact, it's not even close to a true representation of market value. It's not uncommon for low population cards from the first two production sheets to sell at fifteen to twenty times their SMR value. With a large number of people competing to build the set in high grade, low population cards are gobbled up when they re-enter the market and you can "throw out" any price guides that are published.

Wonder if anyone else wants to add their favorite example of pricing way out of whack with pop report--often it's a "variation" or higher number where pop is virtually same as main card but price much, much higher....