The future of rare backs/variations...

[poorlydrawncat]

Obviously T206 rare backs and variations have seen a huge increase in premiums over the past 10 years. I was wondering what the future holds for the rare variations from other (equally) popular sets. I'm talking mainly about World Wide Gum (Canadian Goudey), OPC (Canadian Topps) and Topps Venezuelan, but I'm sure there are others. I personally collect WWG and Topps Venezuelan because I appreciate the scarcity and love their more common counterparts to begin with. I've also found them to be undervalued; WWG is cheaper in a lot of cases. Plus who doesn't love reading awkward French translations about baseball?

Anyway, what do you think the future holds for these sets? Will they ever catch on as rare backs did in the T206 set?

Here are a few WWG's from my PC:

[ullmandds]

Unfortunately...I predict NO! While I agree with you...in that the allure of these cards is their relative scarcity as compared to their American counterparts...the mass majority does not seem to agree! No set will ever achieve the ridiculous analysis/paralysis...hyperinflation of T206...NONE!

[poorlydrawncat]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Unfortunately...I predict NO! While I agree with you...in that the allure of these cards is their relative scarcity as compared to their American counterparts...the mass majority does not seem to agree! No set will ever achieve the ridiculous analysis/paralysis...hyperinflation of T206...NONE!

What do you think it is about the T206 set that makes people analyze it the way they do? Do you think it's a passing fad or is it just the natural progression of the hobby as people run out of things to talk about and obsess over?

I can't think of another set anywhere near as esoteric as the T206 set has become.

[ullmandds]

I'd surmise that having the most famous card in the hobby in the set would be a good starting point to explaining the progression of the "success" of t206.

[poorlydrawncat]

Totally true. Although I feel something like a Mickey Mantle Venezuelan should still be in more demand, given his popularity. Not that I'm complaining, I love being able to afford them

[ullmandds]

Sure...a venezuelan MM would be very desirable to a hardcore yankee/mickey mantle collector...but to anyone else...not so much!

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I'd surmise that having the most famous card in the hobby in the set would be a good starting point to explaining the progression of the "success" of t206.

Ok I'm running to the woodshed after this

IMO it is the only reason people contemplate chasing that set. Too many variations, too many backs and just about impossible to "complete" unless you have a disposable 400k for a Wagner. So you have the "Set" minus the Big Four. I just wish I could see the face of their friends when they share their collection

"Look at my set, it is the one with the famous Honus Wagner"

"Wow that's incredible. I'd love to see your Honus Wagner?"

"I don't have a Wagner"

"Oh nice cards. Got any beer?"

As far as backs, I think tough ones will be sought out, but I think they are close to their peak. I think t205 backs have more upside

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Ok I'm running to the woodshed after this

IMO it is the only reason people contemplate chasing that set. Too many variations, too many backs and just about impossible to "complete" unless you have a disposable 400k for a Wagner. So you have the "Set" minus the Big Four. I just wish I could see the face of their friends when they share their collection

"Look at my set, it is the one with the famous Honus Wagner"

"Wow that's incredible. I'd love to see your Honus Wagner?"

"I don't have a Wagner"

"Oh nice cards. Got any beer?"

As far as backs, I think tough ones will be sought out, but I think they are close to their peak. I think t205 backs have more upside

No need to run, that was almost exactly the reaction to my collecting that some of my friends had years ago.

More like

"what sets have you completed?"
"none, there are too many and the coolest ones are way too expensive"
"................oh, .......................So , ummmmm you're not really serious about it right?"

That's when I switched to showing a range of cards first and putting them into the context of their time to show the coolness. The ones that got it are the ones I still hang out with. Not because of that, but more the overall outlook has made it work out that way.

I used to keep track of how many cards etc I had that were tougher than the Wagner, but obviously worth far less. I don't bother anymore. (If only rarity was all there was to price! )

When I saw a Wagner in person, the reflected glow lasted all of about 30 seconds. The I realized it was a worn, wrinkled T206 with writing. One that would cost someone more than what many people my age made in a year. And more than every car I'd owned up to that point put together. Enough for a very nice downpayment on a house.

Then I wandered off to look at the stuff I could actually buy that I'd probably enjoy just as much.

Steve B

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

I see the prices falling a bit as older collectors die off.

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by I Only Smoke 4 the Cards

I see the prices falling a bit as older collectors die off.

I wouldn't say it's the older guys driving the prices on these...lot of young blood in these prices.....

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

I wouldn't say it's the older guys driving the prices on these...lot of young blood in these prices.....

We will see.

[ullmandds]

The old guys are selling them to the young guys!

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

The old guys are selling them to the young guys!

Hahaha very true. I have made a number of purchases from you old guys.

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by I Only Smoke 4 the Cards

We will see.

LOL any names on your death pool we should be aware of?

[ullmandds]

Sorry But I wouldn't be wearing shades to prepare for the future of t205backs.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

LOL any names on your death pool we should be aware of?

The average age on the board is just about 42 yrs old......I doubt we will all die off in the next few years with the average life span in the US being about 80 yrs old.

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

LOL any names on your death pool we should be aware of?

We are all in the death pool.

[WillowGrove]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

LOL any names on your death pool we should be aware of?

funny. My reaction to his post was " is that a threat?"

I see it's aaaall been worked out now.

And to answer the OP, I don't remember what the question was. Too many Bud Dry's tonight.