Quote:
Originally Posted by Northviewcats
Would it be possible to estimate the population of a given card based on the number of collectors who collect graded cards versus ungraded? Let's assume that we did a poll of collectors here on Net54 who collected graded versus raw. Lets say that out of 100 collectors polled--50 collected graded & 35 collected raw & 15 collected both. (I have no idea if this is a correct ratio, we would have to look at the poll, or perhaps do a couple of polls several months apart) Could we then extend the analysis to the combined population reports to get an approximate idea of how many total cards are out there?
As far as the concern about cards that were busted out of holders and not reported back to the population report. You could ask the raw collectors that were polled what percentage of their collection was once in a holder, but now is raw.
Lets say that the combined population report of card A is 100 and the ratio above was confirmed by the poll then there would be 30 more ungraded examples floating around minus the percentage of the once graded cards that have been broken out of slabs. If that number is 5% your estimated population of card A might be:
100 -5 +30 = 125 cards.
I teach English, not Math, and this is making my head hurt.
Best regards,
Joe
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+1 I like your theory of how to get a estimated population