It will be tougher but there will be some players, I think, who will play long enough to get to those marks.
Moyer had Tommy John surgery and then came back at 49.
Damon signed with the Indians and is currently in the Minors. Should be up by early May.
Petitte retired and then had a change of heart.
With the improvement in medical procedures and rehab and the huge money that these guys can still make, there WILL be guys hanging on just to get the numbers.
The two problems I see right now are 1) guys going to college instead of signing out of high school and 2) teams NOT bringing up young players when they are ready because of the fear of Super Two status and 3) teams NOT keeping old players like they used to.
In the old days, there were more guys coming to baseball straight out of high school and there wasn't anything like Super Two to worry about. So, you could have a 19, 20 or 21 year-old kid coming up and being able to play for 20 years. Now, that 19 or 20 year-old kid is in college and THEN gets drafted and spends time in the Minors.
So, by the time they are ready (and after the team has kept them in the Minors just long enough to keep them from Super Two) they are 23. 24 or 25. Which means it is going to be tough to stay in the Majors for 20 years.
Then, of course, there are guys like Vlad Guerrero, Maglio Ordonez and Derek Lee who COULD still play but aren't being given the chance for some reason (probably because a team would rather give a scrub like Miguel Cairo, Jonny Gomes or Corey Patterson one or two million dollars instead of the larger contracts these guys would want).
Then again, these older players might have too much pride and are overvaluing what they bring to the table. So, instead of swallowing their pride and playing for "only" one million dollars they hold out for more and don't get it.
David
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