[ls7plus]

Ah, but the market, in my opinion, really only started to mature after the crash of the new card rookie market in the early 90's, and only after people began to find out that there was a lot more of the '50's material out there than many originally thought. Rember when so many touted the '54 Bowman Ted Williams as being rare, because it had been pulled from production due to a contract dispute between Topps and Bowman? We've now learned that it might qualify as somewhat scarce, but not truly rare at all. Only after that phase did the card market really start to mature, with the focus shifting to truly rare, significant material, which in most instances meant pre-war items.

I believe you'll see quite a number of million dollar cards in our lifetime, including many of the Wagner's that are out there, quite possibly all of the 1914 Baltimore News Ruths (barring the finding of a significant hoard of them),
M101 Ruths in true NmMt, possibly the "T206" Cobb with Ty Cobb Tobacco back and some of the rarest of the rare cards of the highest echelon hall-of-famers in the best possible condition. The two or three Gem Mint 10
'52 Mantles are probably already there, if one was to change hands. I would include key cards from the Goudey, Cracker Jack or T206 sets graded 9' or 10's, or even a '54 Wilson's Franks Williams in such a lofty grade, but only with the caveat that it is not discovered later on that some of these cards are really restored cards that have been getting by the graders. And with regard to the latter, I don't know if that is the case or not, but would be concerned about it if I had the funds to be buying such cards now.

Somewhat less spectacular cards won't be left out in the cold, though. I think scarce to rare examples of a less prominent character will also appreciate quite nicely, though not to those levels. I do think, though, that we'll be surprised at the number of $100,000 + cards out there 20-30 years from now.

So, respectfully, Barry, I disagree with you. I think cards now are where coins were in the '60's or early '70's (coin collecting did have about a 120-year head start on us as an organized hobby, yet it took a long time for the really valuable coins to achieve those lofty price tags). Cards, however, are catching up fast, with the rarest and most significant appreciating faster in value than comparable coins did, probably due to the fact that a lot of coin people have gone into the card hobby (David Hall, after all, started out with his grading services in coins around 1986, and not with PSA in cards). I remember when a rag of a Wagner was around $50,000 in the mid-nineties. You can multiply that by five now, and that train ain't nowhere near the station!

Coins went through the same sort of boom and bust cycle that the new rookie market did in the sixties, when many investors came into the field, hungry to buy bright shiney items in very high grade, which were actually quite common. Mint rolls of 1950-D nickels went from $100 or so to a high of $1200, before crashing back down to their present value of about $300/roll. Same with high mint grade Morgan silver dollars, many of which existed in the hundreds of thousands, but unknowlegable investors considered to be quite scarce or even rare simply because of their age. Yet the truly rare, significant coins weren't subject to that boom and crash cycle--they just went along their merry way, appreciating at about 12% or so compounded annually, meaning that their value would double every six years, which adds up quite nicely over time.

All of which is not to say that the '33 Goudey Babe Ruth in PSA 4, for sake of example, will rise to such lofty levels, nor will a T206 Cobb in a similar grade. There are just too many of those cards out there for that to happen. But look at something like the Baltimore News Ruth. Lifson estimates that there are 11 or so in existence. For now, let's assume that's true. If there are 1100 collectors out there in the hunt for one, and they are all available for sale, the ratio of buyers to cards is 100:1. But if 7 of those cards find permanent homes in private collections, the ratio shifts dramatically to 1093:4, or
273:1. Let two more of the remaining four find a similar happy, long-term residence,and the ratio shifts explosively to 1091:2, or 545:1. The value of those still available will reflect that in their price, and my example doesn't even reflect the fact that such a dramatic increase will not be lost on the collecting public, adding even more collectors to the hunt. If a thousand new collectors are then attracted to the card who have the means to procure one, our ratio shifts to 2,091:2, or 1,045:1! All of which is basically Econ 101, simply the supply and demand equation illustrated in a dynamic example. But that's also how the cream of the crop rises so swiftly to the top!

Because I believe we are far closer to the beginning than the end, insofar as card values are concerned, the opportunity is here and now, if you're concerned about value appreciation. Just educate yourselves with regard to what's out there, and our cumulative knowlege here is an invaluable asset in that respect. And if you're not concerned about the investment aspects, or if its only part of the attraction, as it is for me, we still have the very history of the game we can hold right in our hands! And how very priceless is that?

Those of you that have had the patience to read through these two long-winded posts of mine can paste a gold star on your foreheads!

Happy collecting, guys!

Larry