[dgo71]

I just think that on a long enough timeline something else will take the place of signed RC's. I don't necessarily think it will be quick, or anytime soon, but collecting tastes change over the generations. It used to be programs or GPCs, then it was baseballs, then 8x10s, then Perez Steele, now cards...seems like each generation moves to something new to claim as their own and the stuff that was previously collected becomes (though not completely undesirable) less desirable.

To the point of the RCs from the 1950s and older always retaining value, I do agree with that, but that is more a product of scarcity than new collectors clamoring for signed RC's of players that passed away before they were born. I think most people who follow baseball will always know Ruth, Cobb, Aaron, etc. but how many kids today can tell you who Bobby Doerr or Billy Williams were? And how many in 20 years will know them? I get autographs in person at my local minor league park, and the vast majority of collectors out there are in their 20's, and whenever I bring up a HOFer that isn't in the upper echelon, these kids have no idea who I'm talking about. The market for people collecting older signatures will eventually become very small (not non-existent, but small) as time goes on.

As for the pack pulled, patch embedded, factory signed RC thing, those cards also have the benefit of being genuine autographs (though a debate for another thread, let's assume this to be true). Also, there is a finite amount of them in the market and if the player becomes a star, like say Albert Pujols, there will always be demand for that particular card. In the technological era we live in, people streaming box breaks chasing a high dollar insert is hugely popular. This adds to the allure of these insert cards (like the Skenes 1/1 that was pulled recently) and just as this is something we would have NEVER foreseen in the 1980's, it very well may seem archaic in the 2050's. As a pack-pulled signed card, the inserts also cross over from the autograph collector universe to the card collector universe, whereas a card signed in person at a ballpark isn't something who is a "card" collector first would really be interested in. Either way, I wasn't really considering factory produced certified cards when I made my original comment, but more geared towards the current craze of getting a player's first card signed, in person or at a show, etc. That's actually a fairly niche group, which only recently (pandemic years) really got into high gear.

Another factor that will hurt as time goes on, is where someone would draw the line in their collecting pursuits. It's easy (enough) to secure a signed 1954 Topps Al Kaline (his one and only RC) but what does a HOF RC collector do now that Ichiro has made the Hall? Beckett lists 47 different cards as true RC's for Ichiro, many of them serially numbered. Do one or two of those RCs, like his Topps or Bowman, become the standard-bearer? Obviously a question only each collector can answer, but I believe the sheer number of different RCs more current players have will ultimately be the source of frustration for a lot of HOF RC collectors.

Anyway, just my opinion, I have nothing against signed HOF RC's or those who collect them. This is all speculative, and long-term and rooted more in just what I've observed in 40-ish years in the hobby, which is that, in general, what people value as the hot commodity in collecting seems to shift over the decades. I think HOF RCs will be no different. All the more reason to always follow the one and only real rule in this hobby, and that's collect what you like. Then it doesn't matter what value is assigned to the items, now, or 100 years from now.