Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss
This is a very interesting read. I don’t know what “started it all”. But I will argue that for quality/blue chip prewar vintage, “it” started long before Covid happened. The value of quality vintage cards and players have consistently gone up- over time - since I started collecting in the early 1980s. That is a primary reason why I decided to invest in cards when I jumped back into the hobby in 2014-15. Below are screen shots of VCP results of various prewar vintage cards that I pulled randomly (focusing on players and cards issues- I did not cherry-pick results).
The first is t206 Walter Johnson portrait PSA 4
The second is 1914 Cracker Jack Cobb PSA 3
The third is E121 “Babe” Ruth SGC 2
The fourth is 1933 Goudey Gehrig, #92, PSA 4
In the cases of the t206 Johnson and 1933 Goudey Gehrig, there are too many sales over the last 20 years to show them individually, like I do with the Cobb and Ruth, so I show an extended-year charter from VCP showing price growth over time
The point here is that, over time, the good stuff tends to go up. Indeed, it tends to double every 5-10 years and grow from there. A doubling from $15,000 to $30,000 is much more dramatic on a pure dollars basis than a doubling from $2000 to $4000. But it’s a doubling, and nothing more, nonetheless.
These charts clearly show large spikes in 2021(ish), but over the longer history, it’s just a more dramatic example of whats been happening for decades. And if history holds true, which I suspect it will barring some fundamental societal/economic shift (which could happen in this crazy world), prices may recede some, but a new floor will be established and over time prices will rise and eventually double.
I am talking specifically to blue chip players and pre war items. I do not know if Roger Bresnahan or Kiki Cuyler shows similar trends; although I suspect they do, just in a less dramatic fashion. And I expect we will see similar trends with players like Mantle, Clemente, Aaron, Mays, Robison, Paige. Cards have been an asset class/store of wealth for many years, and, in my experience, they have been solid investments. But it’s a get-rich-slowly type of play.
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