[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Uh...OK, so you're saying the market for everything, including modern, is steady now but poised for a big drop in 12-24 months? Where are we not yet...at all, the big drop? And this National will be a strong one all around, then, including all the young flippers looking to buy as in the recent past?

That’s not what I said at all.

I said that current prices are not an indicator that we are close to the end. I also don’t think that people will be dumping, nor would I think the lack of that shows much in either direction.

The “investors” are holding if they have any clue and will for a while. Anyone, unless they are needy from repayment from over borrowing, are going to sit. The vast majority of the new blood has little experience in the hobby and will basement hoard for awhile just like the prior junk wax boom. People know a mass dump of product will bring down the value more. If they needed cash infusion, they have already moved some and tried to recoup some.

If the market floods prices will drop rapidly, items will slowly come in but the actuality of what will move prices is slowing demand. The hype train is still pushing hard and the industry is going to do everything to keep that going. I expect strong sales in all honesty as the newer collectors have only the experience of huge prices and profit. The idea that this is the temporary drop that the youtubers are pushing is easily believable. This drop is looking like a great time to buy if you think that a big return is coming.

I think this could be a more successful National than last year and expect you may have a hard time getting good prices if you try to sell to dealers as quietly they likely see the risk too high to stockpile. That said, the collectors and consumers are a different animal. They will be spending.

I’ll wait until next year before I think demand will start to wane. If the big bounce back doesn’t come, that’s when the faith in buying low slows. It also should reflect in vintage as well as the flip crowd has been moving to the post war, and big five since last fall and keeping those values steady while they wait for the modern return.

Hey, it’s my opinion. You don’t have to agree…I am the only one who needs to.