[UKCardGuy]

Originally Posted by paleocards

I track sold prices on eBay and AHs for all of my "blue chips" (see the other active thread for "blue chip" def'n - haha). Here's some of the average annual sale data I've collected:

T206 Tris Speaker PSA 5 (although this one doesn't go back to the 2008 recession, it's the oldest pre-war in my collection with these data collected)
2010 avg: $914.38
2011 avg: $780.40
2012 avg: $935.75
2013 avg: $1,147.82
2014 avg: $1,068.84
2015 avg: $1,092.89
2016 avg: $1,201.60
2017 avg: $1,183.66
2018 avg: $1,245.96
2019 avg: $2,944.19
2020 avg: $2,007.92
2021 avg: $3,065.00
2022 avg: $3,961.97

1954 #10 Jackie Robinson PSA 8
2007 avg: $813.07
2008 avg: $903.90
2009 avg: $782.68
2010 avg: $773.74
2011 avg: $1,108.24
2012 avg: $1,009.19
2013 avg: $1,176.84
2014 avg: $1,257.32
2015 avg: $1,448.63
2016 avg: $1,624.36
2017 avg: $1,687.01
2018 avg: $1,944.51
2019 avg: $2,660.84
2020 avg: $3,509.34
2021 avg: $7,301.32
2022 avg: $7,883.44

1955 Topps #123 Sandy Koufax RC PSA 7
2008 avg: $882.62
2009 avg: $909.13
2010 avg: $850.15
2011 avg: $915.60
2012 avg: $1,034.23
2013 avg: $1,285.43
2014 avg: $1,249.50
2015 avg: $1,690.90
2016 avg: $3,639.44
2017 avg: $2,632.69
2018 avg: $2,615.77
2019 avg: $2,553.74
2020 avg: $3,357.98
2021 avg: $8,282.95
2022 avg: $7,081.04

1959 Topps #514 Bob Gibson RC PSA 8
2005 avg: $667.04
2006 avg: $619.34
2007 avg: $672.12
2008 avg: $765.71
2009 avg: $854.03
2010 avg: $780.13
2011 avg: $817.88
2012 avg: $838.16
2013 avg: $933.05
2014 avg: $1,262.72
2015 avg: $1,486.38
2016 avg: $2,279.96
2017 avg: $2,018.58
2018 avg: $2,070.23
2019 avg: $2,178.16
2020 avg: $2,749.59
2021 avg: $6,292.13
2022 avg: $6,281.35

The take-away from these data for me are that blue chip baseball cards are a good (long-term) investment. There seems to be a consistent dip in sale prices in the year or two post-recession (2009, 2010) but they all re-gained those losses and continued to appreciate. And of course, the last two years' gains have been unprecedented.

I've put the figures from paleocards into Excel to show the Year over Year change. My observations:

• The increases started accelerating later in the economic cycle. Kind of when I started seeing more and more youtube videos about card investing.
• You can see some pretty big spikes. The spikes are generally followed by declines the year after (but the gain far exceeds the decline)

I agree that quality wins out over time but I also think we haven't seen a traditional economic cycle since 2007. The COVID induced recessions was unique with the vast amounts of money that was printed and put into the ecoomy. I don't think that we've had had a "proper recession" since the credit crisis and the figures really only start after that. I'd love to have the same data going back to the 1980s.

As Leon says, it's all about the demand because the supply of pre-war and post war vintage isn't really changing. I'm starting to notice some softening of prices. Not everywhere but in some places. But if the economy turns south where people are losing their jobs or they're scared that they'll lose their jobs....then discretionary spending on things like cars, art and baseball cards will be amongst the first to go. That's just the way the economic cycle goes.

At that point, prices will inevitably fall. I have no idea by how much. We all have collections of cards, that means that we have a natural bias about how we look at this. It's human nature to want to find information that aligns with what we want to hear. My gut tells me that there will be some substantial falls over the next few years. For the "investors" that joined the hobby in the last 5+ years, I can't help but think that when prices start to fall that they'll bail out. That'll only accelerate things. Then again....I'll be able to buy at cheaper prices. :-)