[JustinD]

Originally Posted by joshleon

Yeah, I hedged with the Wagner example which some theorize was held back on purpose.

But as a general rule, collectibles which are released and marketed as such, often don't have the staying power. This could be a whole other thread and is off-topic from investing but it's related.

One of kind because it's the "only one left" is a different thing than one of a kind "because they only made one." There was no widespread exposure to the latter, while there was to the former, and the former has been lost because it wasn't a collectible.

I will probably eat these words and the Trout Refractor Auto will be 10mm in 20 years time.

I would put my money on eating the words...

We can grumble and shake a fist at modern production, but this is what those new collectors are chasing and growing up with. It will be the status quo when they get older and grow incomes to chase a new level of affordability.

Much like how the huge growth in 90s value as those collectors aged has become the rare inserts, scarce issues like "blue chips", or limited cards the same will happen.

I am way too old for even opening for autos in early 90s Upper Deck or even inserts other than Fleer stickers, but I recognize that the manufactured scarcity argument holds no water in card collecting if looked at critically with sales numbers.