Quote:
Originally Posted by tschock
They are elite and at the upper end of the curve. They would not all of a sudden become worse for ignoring what is essentially an analysis for the average. While their preference on pitching started as such, they weren't elite because of their preference, but because of their skill they honed for their preference. You missed the point, whether purposely or not.
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It doesn't matter whether someone is already elite or not. If the data shows that doing X yields a 5% advantage or improvement, then you should do X. However, it may also turn out that you're not good a doing X, in which case you should revert back to not doing X. But that doesn't mean X is not advantageous. It just means that your peers who are good at X are going to start closing the gap on you.
This is precisely what has happened in the NBA with respect to 3 point shooting. So much so, in fact, that its effect can even be seen in the average player heights over the past 15 years. The mean player heights have dropped in recent years because teams are selecting for players who shoot 3s well and who are more capable wing defenders. The result has been a tradeoff of the taller, slower players who previously were selected for "protecting the paint" with their rebounding and shot blocking abilities. The vast majority of big men who remain in the league today have either learned how to shoot 3s as well, or are quick and capable wing defenders who are good at preventing them. Guys like Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis, and Kristaps Porzingis are all capable 3 point shooters. The days of guys like "Big Country" Reeves, Greg Ostertag, and Kevin Duckworth making the league are over. This is entirely the result of the data saying "you should do X" and front offices across the league respecting the data.