[todeen]

Originally Posted by 68Hawk

It's inevitable that some collectors will miss on their speculation over who will be truly successful superstars of the sport. Everyone who buys a rookie card of a player in the first 5 years of their career know that, and are just hoping to get it right.

I hope that is how it goes! I would love it if new collectors invest smartly. And I get pulling for the people you invest in. I saw Aaron Boone as a Level A Rookie League player, and I pulled for him and collected him. But I guess I'm just not overly optimistic for new collectors who feel this is a can't miss investment. MLB puts out their Top 100 list, and some of those Top 10 seem like can't miss prospects. But some years are entirely a bust when you reflect on the MLB 10 year anniversary prospect review lists. I guess from my personal view, I'm risk adverse. I don't like losing money, and I got burned out on modern.

I switched to vintage because I didn't have the room to store modern. I got married, moved into a small apartment, and I had no clue where to put my tens of thousands of cards. Most were worthless - 90 / 91 / 92 / 93. So I dumped them. That was 12+ years ago. And it's the same with modern cards today. You buy a box of cards, blasters, etc., and you gotta store them somehwere. If you buy boxes as a future investment, that takes up more space. 95% of them will be worthless after 1 year. What do you do with them at that point? I just see some most new collectors feeling overwhelmed after jumping into the deep end.

As a realist, pessimist, etc., I see card collecting like the religious "Parable of the Sower." One is planted on good ground, and two are planted on adverse ground.