[Phil68]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

I think the expected future value of the cards is already factored into their current prices, so there's no particular reason to think either one is a better investment than the other.

Originally Posted by nat

"Really? Interesting. You believe the supply/demand has found its level and it's got nowhere to go but downward?"

That isn't what he said. Say that there's an X% chance that the T205 will increase by $Y and a Z% that it will increase by $W, over the course of some number of years. The idea is that the price of the T205 includes ((X*Y)+(Z*W))*(some discount rate for future money). And that the same is true for the other card (with different X,Y,Z,W). They can still appreciate in value, but for whichever one you can expect to appreciate more in value, you'll pay a proportionally higher cost in order to capture that increase in value.

The appreciation can be due to the discount rate, or if the actual amount by which the card increases in value ends up being greater than (X*Y)+(Z*W).

I'm not endorsing this idea, just explaining it. You'd expect it to be true if all of the cards were purchased by rational investors who are equally well-informed. Whether it would be true in other markets I don't know.

Got it. Makes good sense to me. Thank you!