[BicycleSpokes]

David - I totally agree with you.

I am not a fan of either team, but for karma's sake, I was very happy to see Green Bay get bit in the arse after settling for FGs twice at the 1 yard line. That was pathetic, gutless, not to mention uninformed coaching, in my opinion. It has been convincingly shown that, on average, the decision to kick chip shot field goals costs teams significant points. Especially on the road in Seattle, you have got to go for the juggler when you have the chance! Kicking FGs from the 1 (especially early in the game!) is like staying on 12 in black jack with the dealer showing a strong hand. Sure, you will save yourself from busting once in a while, but it is mathematically the wrong move EVERY time!

Coaches are generally FAR too conservative regarding the decision to go for it on 4th down, from a mathematical/statistical perspective, both near the goal line and also around mid-field where the field position benefits of punting are limited. Emotion and/or fear too often gets in the way of making decisions that will give their team the best chance of winning. (I am a fan of Brian Burke, who has developed a very interesting "expected points" model, which is one way of showing this. Grantland's Bill Barnwell is also consistently a great read.) I expect the next 10 years will show a large shift towards more aggressive 4th down decisions as the benefits become more widely known and accepted. Presently, it seems like Belichick is one of the few coaches who consistently goes with the math in these decisions.

When I own an NFL team (which will be never), I hereby vow to immediately fire my coach from my owners's box if he ever dares to kick a FG from the 1 yard line in the 1st quarter!!!