2015 NFL Playoff Pool

[BicycleSpokes]

David - I totally agree with you.

I am not a fan of either team, but for karma's sake, I was very happy to see Green Bay get bit in the arse after settling for FGs twice at the 1 yard line. That was pathetic, gutless, not to mention uninformed coaching, in my opinion. It has been convincingly shown that, on average, the decision to kick chip shot field goals costs teams significant points. Especially on the road in Seattle, you have got to go for the juggler when you have the chance! Kicking FGs from the 1 (especially early in the game!) is like staying on 12 in black jack with the dealer showing a strong hand. Sure, you will save yourself from busting once in a while, but it is mathematically the wrong move EVERY time!

Coaches are generally FAR too conservative regarding the decision to go for it on 4th down, from a mathematical/statistical perspective, both near the goal line and also around mid-field where the field position benefits of punting are limited. Emotion and/or fear too often gets in the way of making decisions that will give their team the best chance of winning. (I am a fan of Brian Burke, who has developed a very interesting "expected points" model, which is one way of showing this. Grantland's Bill Barnwell is also consistently a great read.) I expect the next 10 years will show a large shift towards more aggressive 4th down decisions as the benefits become more widely known and accepted. Presently, it seems like Belichick is one of the few coaches who consistently goes with the math in these decisions.

When I own an NFL team (which will be never), I hereby vow to immediately fire my coach from my owners's box if he ever dares to kick a FG from the 1 yard line in the 1st quarter!!!

[barrysloate]

New England
41 points

[wolf441]

New England
68 Points

[tiger8mush]

NE (unfortunately) 39 pts (29-10 will be the final score)

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by BicycleSpokes

Especially on the road in Seattle, you have got to go for the juggler when you have the chance!

Agreed - if there are no mimes around, go for the juggler...but kicking the field goals was smart.

[insccollectibles]

When they were inside the one I was surprised they kicked. Could have been the difference but of course who knows the whole game would have been different due to that one call.

[johnmh71]

New England 28-24

[t206fix]

Seattle - 31
NE - 21

[talkinbaseball]

this is not an educated guess...

Seahawks 28 New England 27

Talkinbaseball


john

[tombocombo]

New England Patriots
61 points

[jcmtiger]

Seattle 30
Ne 24

[bobbyw8469]

Patriots - 44

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by johnmh71

New England 28-24

John really deserves a consolation prize for picking the exact score. That's amazing!

[wolf441]

As a Pats fan, I still really can't believe we won. After that Kearse catch, on the heels of the last two Super Bowls (Tyree and Manningham), all I was thinking was, here we go again. I was screaming for the Pats to call timeout and thought they should have let Lynch score a TD on first down. Shows what I know!!

Rest assured, Pats fans' balls are fully inflated this morning!!

[Pat R]

Link didn't work but Lynch ran the ball from 1 yard out Five times this year and only scored once.

[johnmh71]

Originally Posted by wolf441

As a Pats fan, I still really can't believe we won. After that Kearse catch, on the heels of the last two Super Bowls (Tyree and Manningham), all I was thinking was, here we go again. I was screaming for the Pats to call timeout and thought they should have let Lynch score a TD on first down. Shows what I know!!

Rest assured, Pats fans' balls are fully inflated this morning!!

The difference was that this year they had guys that were ready and able to make plays on defense. And Belichick knew it, hence no timeout. The last play really showed that.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by johnmh71

The difference was that this year they had guys that were ready and able to make plays on defense. And Belichick knew it, hence no timeout. The last play really showed that.

He definitely should have called a timeout to save clock for the offense. Hindsight is great, and people can now spin it all they want, but the odds had to be 80 percent or higher that Seattle with its timeouts scores with Lynch on the ground, or by a short pass for that matter.

[johnmh71]

And done what with the ball? Hail Mary? Against Seattle's secondary? The game was at the one yard line. Kudos to the Pats D for making a play.