Hi Rich- a few thoughts about what you said.
I think there will be somebody somewhere buying newer cards, but there will still be many future collectors who will go straight to vintage. Every baseball fan has heard of Ty Cobb and Christy Mathewson so that is not a stretch at all.
Of the dwindling number of new card buyers, how many are buying to piecemeal complete sets together, and how many are buying only for the chase cards? I don't consider the latter to be a form of collecting, but more akin to buying a quick-pick lottery ticket.
How many stories have you heard about people buying packs, opening them up at the counter, and then throwing away the cards after they discover they didn't get any valuable ones? That's not collecting either.
Of course as long as new cards are being issued, some people will be buying them. But the number of buyers will be tiny compared to what we might consider the golden age of baseball cards (of which our definition may vary).
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