Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales
 

Let's please don't get political. IF you do, your post will be deleted and an infraction given.

Does the stock market's recent losses (or other big losses in short time frames) have a bearing on your buying of pre-war cards?

Personally, I tend to spend less when my IRA's are down 25% in the last several weeks.

Leon, I believe both the stock market and economy have impacts on the entire card market.

I talked to three guys that went to the Philly Card show over the weekend. All said the show was busy, but from their perspective, cards under $100 were selling, but people were leery about spending on the higher value cards. I expect the same
for the rest of 2025.

If you are concerned about the stock market/economy, you pull back in other areas.

It does at some point, but pulling back a few points off of new all-time high records for a few weeks is nowhere near that point. S&P is still higher than it was 6 months ago, and well over the 5,000 milestone it first hit 1 year ago. Dow is up a couple thousand over 6 months ago, down a couple thousand over 3 months ago. I'm not seeing down 25%, or cause for panic to cut out unnecessary expenses, but at some point there is unfortunately such a time for that.

My research on boxing card prices over the years i've published my guide indicates a lag of about 10-12 months between a bear market bottom and a card market bottom. There seems to be a correlation but it takes a bit of time to pound the optimism out of investors and to bring them back out of their shelters.

Now that said, I don't really base my buying on the markets, I base it on the price. Nathan Rothschild said the time to buy when there is blood in the streets. I agree. I bought a lot of vintage cards during the Great Recession because they were so cheap (in some cases $2-$3 per slabbed PSA 8 HOFer) and sold them into the COVID run-up. I only wish I had purchased more cards in the trough sold more of my cards at or near their peaks.

I think the potential issue is the sentiment behind the stock market downturn. The current downturn is not purely a result of the broader US equities market being overvalued on a historical basis; there is a lot more going on -- and a lot more that we haven't seen in a generation or more.

Does this mean that people are more likely to splurge on a $100 card than a $1,000 card? Yes, I'd think so.

This said, I'd imagine that those who are spending upwards of $50,000 on a card probably aren't impacted psychologically in the same way (because their net worth is so high on an absolute level).

I think it really depends on your age: if you’re retired or soon to be, the short term hiccups in the stock market can have a real impact on your finances and should spur cautious buying. As the markets have been on a pretty straight upward trajectory over the past 30+ years, most of us can deal with these (hopefully) temporary fluctuations. However, this is all based on your income obviously.

For me personally, I’d welcome a hit in card values so as to allow me to buy some big cards at a discount.

Completely agree with this assessment.

I understand what you are saying. But it is still a mental-thing to see your account at one number and down a lot (mine is down over 25% as I am all in, on tech).
I am not selling anything but am just more careful on spending too much. Everyone is different. A lot of people, maybe most, aren't sensitive to the market. I still sleep well as only approximately 10% of my assets are in the market. But still.....I look at what pre war cards I could have bought with my on-paper market losses. I could have had a lot of Ruths or Cobbys!

I need to see a card...

+1. There's a large body of research that validates your point. We are fundamentally not 100 percent rational when it comes to most decisions, and losses hit us mentally a lot harder than wins.

Not wise unless you're in your twenties and thus very early in your income earning years. Quite simply, very rarely does one company stay the smartest in the tech business for long. Even Apple had a major downswing for more than a dozen years until the emergence of the internet enabled it to reinvent itself with the iMac.

Hopefully you're not including your principal residence and your personal collectibles in that other 90% because one sells those things only in absolute desperation.

:confused:

Incidentally the buy-and-hold stable oligopolies investment strategy that served me so well for fifteen years went completely to hell in the last fifteen months. I'm now hurting a bit and not happy at all.

:(

The market goes up and down but if you have plenty of time for recovery, all will likely be fine as the market has been up on 10 year runs for many cycles.

I actually like to believe in worst cases, for myself. Worst case is I move into a paid for, really nice house on a few acres, about a mile from where I live....and retire completely tomorrow. And I could live without ever touching my cards, savings or having anything to do with the forum monetarily.
I think I am ok. I give it some thought.
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A sustained period of a down stock market will eat away at year end or mid year bonuses for a lot of professionals, particularly financial types. I have always assumed that many big purchases are "bonus money" type situations. So I assume anything resembling a real serious market retrenchment will ultimately hit the vintage market hard. Maybe not immediate but it will.

I have done much better with lower end stuff the past year than higher end (above say 200.00) - before that selling was stronger for everything. Lower end collections are even selling, affordable cards are strong in both markets vintage and modern. I also see that to continue for the rest of the year. Thanks!

Just a thought, but if the ultra wealthy are unloading their tech stocks, they are cash rich but immediately wish to put that cash into attractive investments. Why not collectibles, and in particular pre-War and post-War 40's and 50's vintage?

I think the rich have already sold many of their cards are maybe now are keeping their powder dry for the drop in real estate...Seems Smart to me.

Leon-I think your biggest problem isn’t cards but rather the lack of diversification in your portfolio. For most people, especially younger ones, retirement account dollars are not available for card purchases anyway so the two should not be directly related. If one keeps saving regularly these down periods just allow for better long term buys.

I was out of collecting for 30 years. What changes did you all see during the tech bubble bust of '01 and the housing crash/Great Recession of '07-'12?ish Did spending dry up, did those least affected use it as an opportunity to buy low from those who needed quick cash? There weren't many brick-and-mortar card shops by then, but did it shutter those hanging on?

Voted no because a stock market loss is only a loss if you sell your position. Not the greatest feeling seeing consistent dips but the endless new market highs are also not that comforting.

All markets adjust which gives an opportunity to either buy or sell. I do a lot in real estate and have never made a mistake unless I sell in a panic (which I did once) and can be avoided when you are diversified and have sufficient capital.

I apply this same concept to cards.

One thing to consider is that if you are comfortable with your financial situation, then a major stock market dip may well be a time to buy. The old axiom of sell into an up market and buy into a down market has worked very well over the years and probably will work one more time.

And the best cards will remain just fine, it's the upper middle class to the middle class will have issues.

Oh, and low end will be fine if not even better as people want cards and if traditionally it's been lower end cards at lower prices doing well, well that will continue as well. Remember the low end is perceived to be affordable

Rich

I have 2 investment avenues. One is stocks/metals(mostly ETF) which I favor over a stocks/bonds mix. This is "retirement" (not 401K) and I mostly leave it untouched.

My active trading account was -much- more active during COVID with specific strategies that took advantage of trends during the global pandemic. It's purpose wasn't to help fund cards, but it did make some purchases no-brainers since the money leaving didn't matter as much as it might have. I know a good amount of collectors that bought into cards beyond what they thought they would because of help from the COVID-juiced stock market, even with rising prices on cards.

My plays in the market rely heavily on normal or easily predictable conditions. Even in non-normal times I've managed to find predictable investments, but what's going on right now for the past month...maybe some people have a predictable/safe path...not me, not even a clue.

My spare investment money has been sitting in a savings account paying 4%-ish for most of 2025 (currently 3.9%).

To me, given years to retirement and current asset allocations, a downturn in the stock market and steady state card buying (or upgrading) are not mutually exclusive. Card acquisition comes from ‘fun’ or excess money (e.g. bonus, unplanned consulting work, etc.) that is not required for living expenses. It doesn’t come from stock market gains or dividends, thus can still occur uninterrupted and not limited by a market’s paper loss. In fact, staying the collecting/buying course can result in achieving a seldom available white whale card.

The market has a big impact on my spend on cards, especially the big ones.

I’m a pretty heavy trader, and it’s financed a significant portion of my pickups the last few years. Not an algo trader, but generally in the neighborhood of 75-100 manual trades a week. Up markets are nice, but I really bring in the cash on flat weeks. I sell weekly covered strangles and straddles against my core holdings to bring in cash when things are hopefully nice and slow with a slight uptrend. I’ve been wearily the last couple weeks (which has paid off) and have only been selling covered calls against my positions and bringing in cash on the drops. Not enough to cover the position losses the last couple weeks, but they will bounce back in time and they are generating cash on the drops. Even active trading is an exercise is maintaining discipline and strategy, if you are doing it right.

I probably spend 20-25 hours a week doing the research and active trading. It isn’t my main job, but hopefully it will be in the next two years!

When there’s blood in the streets, it’s time to buy!

Bob

Seems like most luxury goods see a decline in purchases during economic downturns.

I guess we can debate whether cardboard is a luxury good, but at a minimum it sure seems like a discretionary one. And when plenty of pieces cost 4 or 5 figures or more, it can feel an awful lot like a luxury at those price points.

For anyone with a big position in the market that takes a hit, it's hard to imagine it has precisely zero impact on their approach to spending.

Traditionally when the stock markets decline, many people will move into the "alternative investments" one of which now is sports collectibles,(used to be art and antiques), which tends to make our collectibles more attractive and rise in value.

The only thing I cut back on is how much I'm spending on food.

I keep the 2 separate parts of my collection and long term investments

So when the market goes down I actually put more funds into the market and sometimes if it goes down a lot I will take some funds from my card funds and put extra into the market.

I know many people that have funds and when the market is down they actually keep there money in the market so they do not take a loss but they will not put new money into it and look for alternatives places to put the money and collectibles is on such avenue for them.

....

I would say absolutely especially in the $500-$10,000 range of cards. Above that you can withstand downturns. But in the range people pull back incase they need money not knowing when market will bounce back

Diversify, Leon; you're way too old not to :D

I think the stock market WILL have a bearing on the pre-war card market. Some rare and star cards will always sell well, but I think prices in general will fall if the stock market continues to have more bad days than good, as people deal with real or perceived losses of some chunk of disposable income.

But for me, the stock market might dictate how long I put off retirement but not the buying of cards I need. As I head toward exiting late middle-age (at least on paper, though not necessarily in mind or body), I tend not to stray from a philosophy I adopted when I was firmly in middle-age: Unless I'm completing a set and need a scarce piece for my collection, or a particular card I've always wanted but still have yet to purchase (in which case I might be willing to overpay a bit), I try my best not to buy anything that my wife or kids can't sell the next day for at least around the same price that I paid for it!

People are convinced the market just goes up...regardless of the market they are in. I guess just like stocks, it isn't as much timing the market as time IN the market.

I see more and more dealers with the 707 approach. I guess of they can hold a decade or more they will get their price, but be ready for downturn and souring sentiment.

I sold off my 401k to buy cards, during covid sold my cards and went back to stocks and had fun in the process. Long term holding dividend stocks, very light on QQQ , and likely will take large positions in materials and energy here while they are on the canvass.

i recall it not having any impact at all during the months of the covid crash and people asking about it on this forum during the crash.

The COVID crash lasted a couple months at best then the market started giving away money hand over fist.

A good amount of middle class became upper middle class and a good amount of the rich got very rich.

People with 60/40 portfolios were kinda treading water and though safe, didn't really cash in on the situation.

Not sure where you got that graph from but it is factually wrong, as far as I can tell.

As for diversifying; hey I went from 1 stock to 2 stocks to 4 stocks. But they are all technology ones :(. Buy the dip! :)
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Definitely does for me, prime buying time coming soon in a couple weeks!

Card Indexes
 

Is anyone aware of current card indexes - I know that PWCC used to do a TOP 500, and I've seen someone indexed a t206 set vs. the S&P 500 before (but only for a few years and very old data at this point) - the Vendix - link below. Eyeballing the PWCC top 500 chart through 2018 or so it doesn't look like there is much correlation between stocks and cards.

A nice T206 520 Index would be great - with current and historic values.

https://t206resource.com/Article%20V...206%20Set.html

How is it wrong? It isn't wrong.

Maybe I am misreading it?
I guess if you are talking about the day it started, then yes, anything would be an increase (3000%?). Otherwise, it looks like that graph is saying we have record amounts of positive gains, when we don't. The Dow was down by about 10% yesterday, from all time highs. This is more like it, as of today.....(all time high is about 45000)


Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)

Follow
41,502.29
-409.42
(-0.98%)


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The point is that history shows that stocks go up enormously over time, and one should not panic over the inevitable downturns and corrections along the way unless one is on a very compressed timeframe for needing the money. For example, the market has more than doubled since the low pandemic point. Of course, I am referring to the market as a whole, not to any individual stocks.

Na,

If I want it, I can afford it, I get it.

Market has no influence on my purchases.

Butch

I voted no. Mainly because my card spending money comes from a completely different source. Personally I think the stock market is finally starting to adjust to it's true market value. There's been way too many gains over the last 9 years that just don't match up to the surrounding income and expenses, along with the value of the dollar. I could agree with the reason of the previous few years of market gains to equal or match the adjustment of inflation and what a dollar bill can currently buy you in real life.

For example, Say our dollar is worth a dollar and can buy you a dollar's worth of items. While at the same time, say the stock market is at 30,000. If the dollar loses half of it's buying power due to inflation and the over printing of money. I would also expect the stock market to increase to 45,000. Now that increase of the stock market looks great, and people are making nice dividends, and feeling good about that stock market price. But the reality is the stock market increased by 50 percent, only because the dollar value and buying power decreased by 50 percent.

This is obviously just my opinion, and simple math.

I think there's a heavy caveat involved: are you nearing the end term of your investments?

I'm not. I can't touch my Roth IRA for another 20 years. I could care less about the market today.

If I was in dire need of my retirement funds, then I'd be watching what I spend because chances are this is the absolute worst time to need your money.

The graph is correct. The "problem" though is that its scale on the vertical axis is arithmetic and not geometric. This means that recent percentage changes aren't apparent at a glance.

;)

Or, one could conclude that in the big picture, they aren't that significant. But sure, any graph's visual impact depends on scaling.

Money that is sunk into a stock "down in the moment" is money that is not working for you.

It's a lost opportunity.

Eventually you may find yourself back to even or profit, but there's a cost of lost opportunity while it sits there trying to get back to where you started.

It can even make sense to sell at a loss to put your money back to work depending on your next plan.

I think there are indirect impacts. When the market is down, there often is economic uncertainty that can curtail discretionary spending of any kind. If we're worried about the future or our jobs - it has an impact. Also, as the market fluctuates, it has an impact on who is in the market and who is out and that can lead a few speculators to get more into cards (alternatives to the market) or less (heavier focused on the market). It doesnt impact me directly very often as Im a low budget collector, but the impacts are definitely there.

If you're an active trader, sure. But most people do not have the time, energy, and sophistication that takes. Buy and hold, and broad based funds, work better for most people as I understand it.

For us mere mortals, securities are all about timing, not skill. My wife and I are terrible at it so we retained a financial planner to handle our portfolio. I just have to hope that I am not caught in a downdraft like the 2000s. The S&P 500's total return from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009 was a loss of 9.10%. The fact that it came roaring back eventually would not have meant much to someone who had to live on the proceeds for those years.

I wish I was the kind of alpha male collector who welcomes the “blood on the street” and is salivating at the opportunity to pounce, but unfortunately I have an entire life away from vintage card collecting. There is work, kids not yet settled, elderly parents, illness, etc.

You can accept that capitalism frequently rewards moral shortcomings without losing your own morals or empathy.

Unless you pull the levers that make the immoral decisions, you're going to live through it whether you're buying into that particular system or not. The stock isn't going to sit around in a pool of "unsold"...someone will hold it.

Celebrating people's pain while also celebrating the gains aren't always tied together. For some people it is a sick bonus, though.

Not really talking about morals or empathy. Just can't divorce spending significant amounts of income on collectibles from the rest of my life obligations. My hobbying don't happen in a vacuum, disconnected from all the other shit going on in my life.

In praise of portfolio diversification, I wonder how one Elon Musk feels about watching his precious Tesla stock crater, losing billions in the process. Gee, maybe now he is only the second richest man on the planet. Stuff happens, Elon.

Leon, I promise this is financial and not political.

Other investments -- Twitter and Space X -- are equal shitshows.

Just realized that Elon and Leon are anagrams,

but then again so are Tesla and least.

TSLA is up 17,000 percent since it went public. Elon will be OK.

I listened to a vintage card podcast with guest Joe Orlando. Long story short, because of the emotional attachment (which is different than other investments), he feels nice vintage cards would be relatively safe during economic downturns.

And steal.

And of course nobody ever promised us that life was going to be a bowl of cherries. Certainly not our parents.

Moreover nobody ever promised us that stocks had to go up all the time. My initial awareness/experience of the stock market came during the very bumpy markets of 1969-81 so I never developed the expectation that stocks were the road to riches. As I used to say to clients "Well sometimes they go up, sometimes they go down." Had it not been for my underlying ingrained skepticism, I wouldn't have missed out on so many (irrational) booms over the years.

:(

Yeah, and Daniel Bouland is pretty confident that no matter how bad things get people will still come in and buy his $80 hamburger.

They laughed at Shake Share in Madison Square Park when burger were $10.....TEN!!!

actually its pretty easy, you buy an index fund like sp 500, SPY and hold and sell calls on it and you will outperfrom 95% of the 'expert funds'

Pardon the naivety, however what if you sell calls, and since stocks only go up, you stock gets called away?

Since you were willing to sell the stock at that price, you just buy it again. Since you pocketed the call premium already, you're still ahead in the game.

;)

Yes, I'm sure it's that easy.

Free money! Can't lose!!

Don’t take the “blood in the streets” comment, at least from me as, cavalier. My 401k is one thing, suffers like everyone else.

My other account generates cash each week from selling calls and or puts. That cash goes into monthly dividend paying ETF’s until I need the $ for life, or until there is a downturn in the market, and creates opportunistic buying opportunities. Or some cards!

I started trading like that years ago because I couldn’t afford child support and tuition on my salary (my X is a lawyer!). It was developed out of necessity from the tiny 401k that I got in the divorce.

Everyone has their own style and risk tolerance when running your own account. I bring in cash from people that are willing to gamble on things going up 5% in a week, while I hope they go up 4% and I pocket their $100 bill in the process. Repeat the next week. It took years of practice, working countless hours and continuously researching.

Thanks,
Bob

Absolutely mind blowing that 65% of the respondents so far in this thread think that people won't spend less when they have less money to spend.

I think most of the responses here are more about their personal plans, and less about what they think that others will do.

But even so, count me as skeptical that a big hit to the stock market wouldn't impact the average cardboard collector.

I suppose we can debate the line where the average collector starts to feel it, even subconsciously. At 5% maybe not. But as you inch your way up to 10% and beyond, at some point, it seems like there has to be some impact, even if it's merely subconscious and psychological and just causes you to be a little less carefree and unfettered when it comes to bidding like drunken sailors in every auction that comes your way.

Do we have any idea who this "average collector" is? What they earn, what they spend, what they buy, how much they have invested in the stock market, what their overall financial picture is? If we don't know, how can we make any generalizations?

By definition, they should be everyone that isn’t at the extremes of all of those elements. I guess I would also limit it to just the vintage cardboard world, as the modern world is a whole different bag o’hamsters.

If you want to throw out a band, then I could get behind the middle 50%, and throw out the top 25% and bottom 25%. If you’re feeling frisky, you could even widen your net a little. And obviously we’re primarily talking about Americans, with apologies to the collecting Canuks out there, and the smattering of collectors from further abroad.

If you sort of frame it around that fat piece in the middle in terms of invested assets and age and income level, it’s not that hard to sort of imagine in your mind’s eye what a decent slice of these average collectors have in terms of income and investments and investing horizon, etc.

-
I'm still waiting for the value of my NFT's I bought from Fanatics/Candy Digital to come roaring back.

Ba Dum Tss..
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You seem to have a better sense of it than me. Can you put some ballpark numbers on what you're thinking?

There's so much more, too, like the type of collector they are.

I aim for nice looking "lower" grades of stuff that fits my personal taste (I'm a surface/clarity fan moreso than even centering). I don't own a single card worth 10K+ and I don't really have to think much about adding a card to my collection.

Some guys in my same savings/earnings realm aim much higher and their ability to build wealth and spend big are tied together much more than how I collect.

I'm on mobile and can't see the poll. But the title of the thread is about the stock market. Most people don't have less money to spend when the stock market is down. Most of us aren't living day to day on income from the stock market. I have the exact same money to spend when the market is up as when it's down.

I budget my card purchases with "fun" money since its a hobby for me. it's not tied to my investments/retirement funds or funds I set aside for everyday living expenses.

Also I fund what I want by selling what I don't want.

It works good for me.

Ricky Y

All right.

Let's start by positing that the average vintage collector is around 50 years old. We can argue about whether that's too low or too high, but I'm guessing it's not too far off the mean.

Here in the US, if you look at incomes for people who are that age, at the 75th percentile, you're at $112.5k, and at the 25th percentile, you're at $38k. Naturally, if you're in a high cost area, these numbers will shift up, and probably not by a little in some cases.

For the most part, you're looking at a 10-20 year investment horizon before they start drawing on their assets, although in some cases they might need those assets for upwards of 50 years. So not crazy conservative in their horizon.

In terms of retirement assets at that age, the stats I'm seeing suggest that the 75th percentile has about $300k invested, and the 25th percentile has about $1k invested. Obviously this is going to exclude things like your personal residence, etc, and just be focused on more traditional retirement assets. For those who are fortunate enough to have one, I can also strongly suspect that these stats don't include the value of a pension.

A bit of a caveat - I'm inclined to suspect that the venn diagram circles for the Average American and the Average Vintage Cardboard collector don't overlap perfectly, as we probably skew a bit more towards the top of the range rather than the bottom, simply because we have a nonzero amount of cash to blow on frivolities like old cardboard.

How do those stats strike you? Aside from the 25th percentile of Americans being totally hosed on their retirement savings (which might describe more of us than we're willing to admit), and my supposition that we skew a bit more towards the top of the range, I would guess that those stats are generally in the right ballpark for average.

And

Slate

Tales

I mean there's a lot of play in it, but what you say makes sense. So is someone in that range going to change their buying habits because of a bad month on Wall Street, do you think?

My turn to flip the question to you - how bad is bad for this bad month?

And perhaps even more important, what is the outlook going forward?

"Sometimes, bad is bad" - Huey Lewis