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National should be really interesting
Seems like the National is going to hit this year at a time of major economic uncertainty. Lots of younger people under 30 probably have not lived through something like this before. Crypto and NFT guys being slaughtered. Will be interesting to see where this goes. Sellers looking for last year's prices on most stuff are going to be whistling in the dark. Modern "rarities" like Trout etc. have dropped big time. Will be real interesting to see if a lot of valuable prewar stuff changes hands or whether this trip is going to more like a nice museum tour among old friends.
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The problem is the good stuff is going to go deep under....the people that have it won’t sell in this upcoming, notice I said upcoming, we haven’t gotten there yet market. They will have in their minds that it was worth x amount in mid 2020-early 2022 mentality. I can see the vintage market as slightly lower but mostly stagnate with little to no change over the next few years. The past two years of growth were ridiculous and unsustainable to continue.
Hold on tight. It’s never as good as it seems and it’s never as bad as it seems. |
The rarest stuff and the bargains will all be gone before the show opens to the public.
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If you think about the supply and demand situation, if people hold the rarities for fear of a down market, that inhibits supply which may keep prices up. It's when the market gets flooded with people who can't, or don't want to, hold anymore that prices will drop.
Pre War is usually pretty recession resistant. New stuff typically doesn't fair well. We'll see what happens this time around if things keep going south economically. |
Yep, people who can afford to tuck their good stuff away may end up doing so in hopes of a future upward swing, but that may not always be the most sound of decisions.
I haven't found anything good at a National since 2007. It's either a dusty museum that really needs a change of exhibits or worthless junk pile. The interesting stuff is at the auction house booths, but much of that is rehashed material as well. We can look at that stuff on their websites from the comfort of home. Haven't attended since 2018 and will hopefully never do so again. |
I wonder if the current cost of plane tickets and gasoline will have an adverse effect of the National's. I'm in California and there is no way that I could attend the National's on the East Coast with the current cost of travel. Not just the plane ticket, but all the other costs involved; parking, rental car, lodging, food, etc. When one is going to just enjoy the show, and not as a business, it is very hard to justify such an expense. Will that have an impact - absolutely. How much - who knows. I would venture to say there won't be a lot of visitors from West of the Mississippi in attendance.
I'm like the vast majority of people today, I do 95% of my hobby purchases on line. I really enjoyed the years in the past when I could walk into a local card shop - browse, visit, pack war with the owner, and enjoy the experience. Also, there was a time (back in the B.C. period) when there was a National on the West Coast. Not anymore unfortunately. |
I have never been to one but hope to some day. I have very little interest in going there to buy. I would just like to go look at all the super cool stuff.
I am not sure if I can give up what the game used item is but there will be one of the coolest most insanely rare items in baseball history being displayed there this year. It is easily a 7 figure item. |
I think that it will be interesting to see when/if some of the folks that bought at the peak start to panic sell. If/when they do, I think there could be a flood of sellers all trying to sell before the retreat in prices gets too drastic. I think, like most, that things like Mantle rookies will not see much of a retreat. But I would think that a lot of the ultra modern shiny stuff, plus some of the tangential stuff like 1989-1990 Fleer basketball, that saw huge price increases (at least on a percentage basis) will plummet for the foreseeable future. If that occurs, I think we will see an absolute onslaught of material coming up for sale, and prices will naturally plunge. People hoping for prices to remain relatively high better hope that people holding that product hold on to it and don't try to dump it to salvage some of their money.
Me, I'm a collector. The National is fun to go, socialize, see things you don't normally see, hunt for a needle in a haystack, find a few bargains here and there, and just have fun. I don't see it as a moneymaking prospect, or something that is financially sound. I see it like a vacation- the fun is the experience, and I'm not worried about whether or not I could have done better from my computer at home. kevin |
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Also, for ones that are going, how much are they now spending? |
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Right on!
QUOTE=tulsaboy;2234803]I think that it will be interesting to see when/if some of the folks that bought at the peak start to panic sell. If/when they do, I think there could be a flood of sellers all trying to sell before the retreat in prices gets too drastic. I think, like most, that things like Mantle rookies will not see much of a retreat. But I would think that a lot of the ultra modern shiny stuff, plus some of the tangential stuff like 1989-1990 Fleer basketball, that saw huge price increases (at least on a percentage basis) will plummet for the foreseeable future. If that occurs, I think we will see an absolute onslaught of material coming up for sale, and prices will naturally plunge. People hoping for prices to remain relatively high better hope that people holding that product hold on to it and don't try to dump it to salvage some of their money.
Me, I'm a collector. The National is fun to go, socialize, see things you don't normally see, hunt for a needle in a haystack, find a few bargains here and there, and just have fun. I don't see it as a moneymaking prospect, or something that is financially sound. I see it like a vacation- the fun is the experience, and I'm not worried about whether or not I could have done better from my computer at home. kevin[/QUOTE] Absolutely! |
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Like I've been saying for a few years, the novelty of attending the National is over. It's really just a large social meetup nowadays. Attachment 521341
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No mention of the National
is complete without someone saying that, sure we go to socialize, ogle some big time stuff, have dinner with big time spenders, but also because there is the chance that you might be able to buy something that you might not have known you even wanted had you not seen it. This can happen at any card show, of course, but the National brings out the best with some dealers. I know I dropped 5K on a Players League cabinet card of Sam Thompson (identified only as "Malarial Thompson") which I otherwise would have missed.
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Getting to the National.
I am attending my first National this year. Can't wait! I am looking for advice or opinions on the best way/options to get to the convention center. Is parking plentiful? should I Uber? Park out of town and ride the train? I know it's been awhile since the show has been in Atlantic City. Just really looking for the best option.
Thanks RM4 |
You know, I like hearing some of the comments on this site. I don't say too much too often, but this time, I will make an exception. The card market hasn't changed much since the covid. Many collectors that I know would rather put their investments in cards than in the bank or in stocks. The events happening now won't change too much, except for transportation. Doing pre war cards for many years, I have seen these cards level off, but not taking a dive and that's since the 80'S. As a dealer, I carry a large amount of t206 cards mostly in PSA 6's. I have set up at the last 5 Nationals. I do not send cards to auction houses, so they are available privately or at a few card shows that I do. With the National 5 weeks away, it is not a good idea to throw the National under the bus because of a bad experience or two. In that big room, there are some great cards available and there are some dealers out there that will work with customers so you can get a fair sale. Some dealers will raise their cost a little bit to cover their tables and hotel. Even if you don't buy anything, the National runs drawings and games for the kids. As a collector, you can pick up some advice from a dealer or even a business card. It's a fun 5 days for all.
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+1 Agreed and looking forward to seeing as many people as possible from this forum that I never met |
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https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...ize/Bowe_1.jpg https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...d%20ticket.jpg Even though it is AC, i wish I could go this year but family and personal issues just make it impossible for me to pull it off. |
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I enjoy the detailed recaps of the guys who go and report back at end of day
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AC has a lot of taxis and Ubers. If you stagger out of a hotel at 1am and want to go somewhere else, call yourself a car. I’ve foolishly walked the streets of AC late night and it’s not for the feint of heart.
I’ve only trained into AC once from Philly. Took too long and schedule not great. Prob not a great idea. Plenty of hotels 15-20 minutes out of AC if you look around. There are a number of high rise buildings on the boardwalk that are condos that are rented out. Never stayed there but see them in expedia. Prob an acceptable choice if you are not expecting luxury accommodations. Galloway is a town 15 min away that seems to have decent cheaper options. QUOTE=x2drich2000;2234947]Scot, I think a lot of this depends on if/where you are staying and if you're planning to meet up with anyone after the show to eat/socialize. Personally, I'm staying in the boardwalk area as I feel it gives me the best options to just leave the car where it is, run in the morning, walk to the show, and socialize afterwards. The convention center is just over a half mile (15 min) walk from the boardwalk; just be smart about the path you take, times you're going and, mingle with a group which shouldn't be too hard. Parking at the convention center seems pretty straight forward if you're coming from the AC Expressway and just going to the show. The convention center has a train stop for NJ transit if you want to park outside and take the train in. If you stay in the Borgata area, definitely Uber or drive.[/QUOTE] |
it comes down to how serious you are about selling. You can put a sticker for any price you want, but no way are buyers paying 2021 prices. Just look at the B/S/T - a few months ago most of the cards listed would have been sold in 24 hours.
Anyone paying thousands of dollars for cardboard was likely doing so with some eye on their overall paper net worth. The entire purpose of the Fed crashing the economy is stop people from spending on that basis. I expect the 2nd tier hall of famers to fall of a cliff. |
I have been going to the National only when I can obtain free ticket and spend my time picking up freebies only.
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I have a couple of cards I wouldn't sell even if I lived under a bridge and was hungry.
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I've set up a booth at 38 Nationals, and for some reason, I still look forward to the annual event. Over the years, I set up at over 1,000 shows, but now I just set up once a year at the National.
Many of us "old-time dealers" put alot of thought into setting up for the show. We want to showcase what collectors want to see and maybe buy. I actually started preparing last week for the big event. I have watched the market on recent modern cards, but don't expect to find anything newer than from 1975 at my booth. In fact, I have prepared a display that showcases the early 1900s to the late 1960s and early 1970s. The National is definitely the premier sports collector show of the year. Where can you find that number of booths (including corporate sponsors) at any other show? BUT I always hear the same buzz every year that there are so many over-priced collectibles. Just pass those sellers by and look for the rest of us who are always willing to negotiate. In fact, every item in my booth is now priced for sale with a price stated on it and negotiations can get you a sale at around 85 to 90 percent of my for sale price. Although, I do get insulted when someone offers me 30 to 50 percent of my for sale price. That usually signals an end to our negotiations. If you come to the show, just have fun, and get to see all of the booths if you can. It's not very difficult to systematically keep track of which booths you have visited, and possibly want to return to. Enjoy. Steve |
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Steve - If I go to the National, where do you want to meet up for dinner one night ? Attachment 521710Attachment 521710Attachment 521710
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Yesterday went to Woodbridge nj card show packed to where you could not walk .went to one table bought 7 mantles and ran out …lol national will be packed. Folks buying pokemon like it was gold!!crazy
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Jonathan |
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Canada Perspective
For what it's worth, the Canadian Sportscard Spring Expo was held a couple weeks ago in Toronto. I attended Friday and there was a long line to get in, longer than previous years (show is 2x per year but did not run during covid, though there was a fall 2021 show that set attendance records). I would say this show was less busy than the fall 2021 show, but still busier than pre-covid shows.
The show up here is 80% modern and 80% hockey, so it's not quite an apples to apples comparison with The National, but it's the closest we have up here. I've attended multiple Nationals so I am familiar with the mix of sports and vintage vs modern vs auction house setups. I collect mostly soccer, but also look out for vintage hockey and baseball. I spent a good deal of $$ at the Fall Show (albeit mostly soccer cards), but barely purchased anything at the Spring show this year. People were still buying this year, but it looked down from the Fall Show, and it seemed there were more customers wandering around trying to sell or trade their cards. So if this is any indication for the National, expect high dealer prices and mostly tire kicking going on (no surprise). Not to say there aren't diamonds in the rough to find (that's the fun part), but it's tough slogging to find them. |
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East Coast bias question. Has anyone created a demographic of collectors and location? Is it bigger on the East Coast?
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This type of thread surfaces every year. I've got news for everyone as it relates to nice looking vintage, and it's not really news - the majority of it is owned by people who don't have to sell it.
Let me say that again - the majority of nice looking vintage is owned by people who don't have to sell it. The true "diamond hands" in this hobby tend to own this stuff, and it is the absolute last thing they would ever sell unless they got their price. I don't discount this stuff at shows (because there's also so few other dealers who have much of it). Any of us who are waiting on the "crash" in the prices of these cards is going to continue to be waiting...and waiting and waiting and waiting. Year after year we keep hoping and praying for these cards to decline, and year after year they get a little more expensive. It's frustrating for sure, but it's reality. If you're approaching this National thinking this stuff should be or could be "on sale", and that those dealers are going to be desperate for cash, you're going to be worse than disappointed. Also, some of these "modern" kids have started dabbling in vintage, as many are hitting that timeline in their collecting journey when they've discovered that there are some very interesting and historic players that are worthy of collecting. That's keeping the demand side quite high, and as modern continues to have issues I suspect there will continue to be some transfer of funds toward vintage. It just makes sense. So what to do? Make shorter lists of cards you really want, and be prepared to pay going rate to get them. Be patient, search out the card that really is the one for you and be ready to grab it, if it makes sense and you can afford it. If not, pick something else - there's always something else to collect. Carry on. |
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I'm glad you said this, you're telling it like it is, bottom line. Great Comments |
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About a year ago, I visited a local show and there was only one dealer selling vintage but I recently visited the same show and there were now six booths which were completely selling vintage and probably another 6 to 8 booths selling some vintage cards. I believe the return to vintage is getting much stronger daily. But I only sell vintage and have never had a slow down ever but I only set up once a year at the National.
This year's National should be mobbed and if you are really looking for really rare items, you should visit the show sometime between Weds. and Friday. By Saturday the rarest of the rare will be long gone unless they are over-priced. In fact, I have been doing this for almost 50 years, and I will NOT run out of rare items to showcase. So I guess someone will infer that i am over-priced. But this is my once-a -year chance to sell my collectibles. Many buyers take pictures of my display and post them on Facebook, etc. and refer to my display as a "museum" so I work hard to keep everyone happy. I will be bringing hundreds of T206's and for the first time in ten+ years, my T205 set is again for sale. But it is raw ungraded as are most of my display items. But as I sell items I will replace them in my 10 showcases with more rare items. I can do that all week. Believe me. So you can listen to those who try to convince you to pass this year in AC, and wait for Chicago, or you can come this year (and next) and expect to find an outstanding display of sports collectibles and more this year. Steve_NY |
Yes, in the coming weeks we will deal with no shortage of messages about how no one in their right mind would go to a National in Atlantic City . . . and if it doesn't break records for attendance I will be floored.
If anyone planning to attend from outside the area has any questions on logistics, etc., feel free to DM me. I know AC very well and am down there 6-7 times a year. Quote:
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I hope, for the sake of anyone attending, that it doesn't break records. I was at the (in)famous 1991 Anaheim show and it was ridiculous. The fire marshals had to limit entry and even so, many of the aisles were impassable. It took me four hours to get inside the first day and I would not have gone back for a second except that I arranged a trade with a dealer and part of the deal was he gets me inside on a dealer pass first thing in the morning.
What you want is a nice, solid and steady attendance that doesn't overwhelm the facility. |
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I'm staying at the Holiday Inn Express in Absecon which looks like a 15 minute, relatively straight shot to the convention center. I wouldn't mind hearing restaurant recommendations if you have any. I like Breakfast/Lunch/Dinner/Steak/Beer/Burgers/Italian/Chinese/Tapas/Beer/Japanese/Korean/Pizza/Beer/BBQ/Seafood/Beer/Wine and Beer if that helps narrow it down at all. |
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Looking for something a little heartier at night. |
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Unless it’s your food I wouldn’t eat from inside those shows, maybe a soda that’s about it. Most people are packing their lunch cause it’s cheap and won’t make them sick. |
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If I recall correctly there was, in AC, one of the concessions that had salad and you made it yourself. I think I ate there each day. Otherwise, who cares about a little indigestion....It's a room full of gross smells anyway LOL
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If I recall correctly there was, in AC, one of the concessions that had salad and you made it yourself. I think I ate there each day. Otherwise, who cares about a little indigestion....It's a room full of gross smells anyway LOL
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Last time I was there, an outside mall was in development right across the street from the main entrance to the center and it had several restaurant choices right there.
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These seem to touch all the bases...
https://philly.eater.com/maps/best-r...-atlantic-city https://www.thrillist.com/eat/nation...-atlantic-city |
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Everyone who attends a National (as a buyer or as a seller) is anticipating and intending to do business. It is a lot of effort to simply go to set up and show off your stuff. That can be done without leaving your home or office. |
Looking forward to the National. I have attended most of the Chicago shows but this will be my first in Atlantic City. I sell online and at local shows and have always found that the National is the easiest place to sell cards, regardless of what is going on with the economy or the hobby. The National is a unique event and is always a good time. If you don't like card shows and crowds, the National is not the place for you. If you love card shows and don't mind crowds, the National is heaven on Earth. I absolutely love it. Though, you guys have me a little worried about the food...
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I would guess for a regular booth at the National for the week is 1400-1500 bucks plus add on meal lodging for the week and travel. I estimate a easy 3,000k before your sell one card. I don’t know to many dealers who are just going to come for show and not expect to make money…idk anymore lol
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All I’m saying is this is an easy 3k off the bat for the dealer, he has to figure this in to his prices and profit margins before one customer walks the floor. That would be my goal to at least make that back day one if I was set up as a dealer at one of these Nationals. Idk |
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https://www.tuntavern.com/ |
Johnny,
Really good estimate -- but $3,000 covers the booth cost, the hotel and travel costs. Gas prices will increase all of our costs this year. I figure all of the other costs such as meals every day add to another $500 - $1,000. If I work hard every day, which I do, I want to have a good dinner every night, and I am paying for two. So I have to do at least $3,000 - $4,000 before I make a penny. But I only set up at one show a year, so I try to make the best of it and hopefully I make enough to keep me happy until the next National. Steve_NY DynamicTwo@Aol.com |
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And the one expense no one has mentioned: the initial cost of the inventory you are selling. That is also part of the equation. Yes, some like Steve have stock they purchased years ago so it may not be as big an issue. There are probably more than a few dealers who are purchasing year round not just for this show, but to keep their inventory fresh or deals too good to pass up.
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Michael, I didn't bring up the cost of inventory but I did think about it. As you said, most of my sales are of items I bought 30-40 years ago. I tend to try and make a new display every year and hopefully attract interest from other sellers.
But here's a funny story: I had a friend named Stanley Salomon who did every one of my monthly shows in Bayside, NY. He also set up at the Gloria Rothstein shows and would take 3 tables for like $1,000. Then when he did $1,200 to $1,500 he would be like a pig in you know what. I would say Stanley, only rent one table and you cut your costs and you make a decent profit, but he would always say that he couldn't get everything out. BTW, I still spend a huge amount every year on sports and non-sports, which this year was more than ever before, but sales to long-time customers have made those investments worthwhile. My latest acquisitions will see the light of day for the first time after sitting for 50-80 years in a box in a basement. Thanks for your good luck wishes. Steve DynamicTwo@aol.com |
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Steve or anyone - Let's say a long time collector wants to set up at the National & sell their high end cards. How difficult is it for them to get a table for one time selling at a National ?
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1 -- I keep reading comments that vintage is cool -- but I don't agree -- I have been doing this for almost 50 years, and I have not set up at one show thisyear, but my sales are top ten already -- maybe even top 5. So vintage for me is HOT.
Personally, I thought it was that Modern cards have cooled down? 2 -- Only way to get a booth at the National is to be there on Saturday to complete a contract for the following year. Just check on that by calling Megan at the NSCC. Other way would be to rent space from another seller who wants to cut their costs. Many sellers do that every year. I don't because I use all of my booth for ten showcases and set up other items in the back of my booth -- hopefully out of the reach of thiefs (Yes they are all over every show hoping you get distracted). Good luck. Steve_NY |
Speaking of expenses, do out of state dealers have to get a temporary sales tax id at the National? If so, what is the cost? I thought Chicago required it last National.
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I finally got a booth this year, I was the third to last guy picked among the waiting list or new dealers. |
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Mazel Tov Scott Attachment 522594
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Once you have your foot in the door, keep getting a booth for the next year to build seniority. I got in with Parsippany and kept my priority building every year so that at this National, I have done 38 of them and only 24 booths have a higher priority than me.
Sad to say, but most of my peers have passed on. Many of them were friends and I remember all of our earlier deals like it was yesterday. Steve_NY |
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Please share where you're seeing this stuff come down in price because I'm obviously not looking in the right places. Eye appeal continues to be the driving force on prices across the board. Any graded T206 Cobb in any pose, PSA 3-4-5 of other T206 HOFers (especially portraits), heck even "authentic" Planks and others continue to go up when auctioned, ANY Cracker Jacks (not just HOFers), Goudey Ruths and Gehrigs. 1950s RCs may have come down some from the peak but the nice ones, like truly centered 1954 Aarons and 1955 Clementes, all pretty difficult to locate and auction prices still reflect very strong interest from PSA 5 to PSA 8. 1952 Mantles - there are no "deals" on these any more (if there ever really were). I don't know what vintage you see that's slipping, maybe the borderline off center stuff and PSA 4s and less from the 1950s/1960s, but solid stuff gets solid bids and it's harder than ever to find. I know because I collect graded sets from these years, and I'm adding cards much slower than I have in the past and I'm having to pay more than I ever have. That's true at every show I've been to in the past year and it's going to be true in AC. And not everyone who goes to the National is there strictly for commerce - there are lots of people there for the autographs, some people are there for giveaways, some are there to just experience it. Here's another tip - if you're just there for the money and the commerce, you're actually going to "miss" the show entirely. |
cracker jacks insane
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