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I think a good indicator as to whether there is a correlation between the stock market and card prices will be the closing tomorrow night of the LOTG auction. If card prices finish flat from their current levels, rather than soar in extended bidding, as per norm, it will be a reflection that the demand curve for vintage has paused, as people worry about their money.
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Sounds like you're pretty much set, so you don't really need much by way of advice. But if I had any advice for someone in your situation, it would probably be to not sweat the market. No point in worrying about something you can't control, and probably doesn't really have much of an impact on you anyway. |
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150k for a freaking PSA 1.5 CJ Shoeless 30K for PSA 1 52T Mantles 20K for National Chicle Bronkos in poor condition 50K+ for shiny Wembanyama rookies Just ridiculous ... |
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On the other hand, they might be living a lot closer to the financial edge than we might assume. Personally, I tend to go the other way, and assume that whoever is paying this much for cardboard must have lots of assets tied up in the stock market that could be taking a beating now, which might cause them to sweat pretty hard. A lot of it tends to stem from my general assumption that humans tend to act irrationally and emotionally, and our cardboard purchases are no exception to that general rule, with people buying cards that are a stretch financially, potentially because they are irrationally exuberant about their future wealth because they believe that either their cardboard or their other investments will keep going up in perpetuity. |
Obviously one size is not going to fit every person paying these sorts of prices, but I would guess the vast majority are the type Adam describes. I.e., people to whom the money really is beside the point.
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When the pandemic boom started, everybody assumed that it was the "super-rich" or the "guys on Wall Street" who were driving up prices. But when the bubble burst, those same people started to dump their cards, which hurt prices even more. These guys couldn't make their mortgage payments or pay their line of credit and in the end they got destroyed. So, nope ... not rich ... only stupid ... |
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Between this and expensive spreads in illiquid spots, commissions, etc....I've always guessed that in theory, options were a similar negative sum game (on both sides) for dart throwers. They're too overpriced to go long with a positive EV, yet all the extra costs and limitations with being short may be just as bad. In the end, not much different than having to lay -110 on either side of a game in a sportsbook |
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Americans do what they do because they can........... |
After last week, I am going to change my vote from "no" to "yes." This is looking pretty ugly....
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Does anybody think that the recent market slide will affect bidding in the auctions that are active? Subconsciously?
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If the downdraft continues for a while and extends in intensity, it’s hard to imagine that it won’t have an effect. Like most things in life, it’s a lot easier to identify once it’s happened. I guess we’ll see. |
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Yep, y'all stay away from the two lots I'm bidding on tonight please. - |
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Always room to debate what was the trigger for any given outcome, of course. And just because I picked up a few nice deals doesn’t mean that there won’t be plenty that go the other way. But maybe you’ll get lucky too. |
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I watched 2 lots that I was in on last night blow past what I was going to bid tonight. I'm out, but happy to see people spending.
Market goes up & down. Unless you are retiring this month it should have ZERO impact on your spending. SACK UP! |
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Regardless of the market, if you are looking to invest, the stock market is better than cards. But if you have money for a hobby, investment isn't really the consideration. |
The Love of the Game results also were very strong; Al runs a helluva auction. I whiffed on every lot I was chasing and in most cases it wasn't close. Would've loved to get that Jackie Robinson ca. 1947 snapshot but at $4400+, my ceiling was more of a floor.
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The seller of the 1915 Ruth Team photo did well! Bought Summer 2023 LOTG $6k and sold last night for $140,000:eek:. |
What did the write-up say in 2023? This is like that WWG DiMaggio in Goldin --amazing realization change.
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Adam--Looking at 19th century material the LOTG realizations were so so at best. Old Judges did OK for the most part but some of the rest did very poorly relative to past realizations.
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Again a grading company change results in a radically higher price. How could PSA go from a type 3 to a type 1 in their evaluation? I know nothing about photos but if graders can't tell the difference between a type 3 and a type 1 why would collectors pay such a premium for the latter?
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There is an explanation in the auction itself.
Please note: this very example previously sold in our Summer, 2023 Premier Auction and was encapsulated as a Type III photo at that time. Over one year later a second example of this photo, with identical embedded editing, surfaced in the hobby which PSA determined to be a Type I photo. That photo ultimately sold elsewhere in September, 2024 in excess of $85,000. PSA then updated their opinion on the offered example, determining the embedded editing within both images is, in fact, a result of application to the original negative itself and not present due to use of a copy negative. A full LOA from PSA is included with this photo noting the critical distinction. |
Yes, Al did a great job explaining it.
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Futures closed in Asia, and Monday looks like it's going to be a tough day of selling. And NYT indicates that EU is preparing retaliatory tarifs.
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Time to panic!!!!!!
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Here's another card for the thread. The Kid played clean, played hard, and was beloved in both Canada and New York.
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i have/had roughly the same amount in my Fidelity holdings and my card collection. To date I am down seven figures in the brokerage account, meanwhile the cards remain about the same value as a month or two ago, when the market slide began, and it concerns me very little in the big scheme of things. Fear not, the market will come back sooner or later. I have been in equities since 1989 and remained fully invested thru the Gulf War crisis, Dot com bubble, 2008 Mortgage crisis and Covid, each and every time the market has regained its prior level and gone on to reach even higher and each time I was consistently throwing more money into the holdings. This time will be no different whether it takes 2 month or 2 years I can't predict, but probably much closer to the former than the latter.
My advice to those that frequently ask what to do, is nothing, unless you want to buy more, especially younger investors with the benefit of time on their side. It is very easy to get out of a down market, when to get back in is the hard part, most people either miss it or stay out entirely and miss out even more. |
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I can't speak for Scott, but 150 years of history say stock markets go up over time, and the reasons that is so -- improvements in efficiency and innovation -- have never been truer than now. Short term pullbacks happen. Markets go up over time. Look at a chart of the Dow since its inception.
As for the current crisis, it's noise IMO. Unless the tariffs wreck the economy, the economy is strong, technology and innovation are unbelievable, it will be fine. |
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Several reasons, firstly someone on one side or the other of the tariffs will fold, and/or the Fed will make a move(lower interest rates), and investors will also realize that multiples are now much lower and the market is oversold. Part of the equation is company earnings as well, and whatever the headwind, companies tend to find a way to increase their earnings through good times and bad, using price pass increases to the consumer or by cutting costs, either way the bottom line comes out positive. Lastly, also consider the huge amount of cash sitting on the sideline, a few hints of good news and the market will "Melt-up" pretty quickly.
None of this is financial advice, just my thoughts and experiences in past downturns. |
Not a political comment per se, but under Article I of the Constitution it is Congress that has power over tariffs. If this REALLY goes south and starts threatening people's chances of reelection because the economy collapses, Congress may do something. But I doubt it will come to that.
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I'm personally of the view that logic prevails over time, but I think the market isn't as confident about that than I am. |
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