i have/had roughly the same amount in my Fidelity holdings and my card collection. To date I am down seven figures in the brokerage account, meanwhile the cards remain about the same value as a month or two ago, when the market slide began, and it concerns me very little in the big scheme of things. Fear not, the market will come back sooner or later. I have been in equities since 1989 and remained fully invested thru the Gulf War crisis, Dot com bubble, 2008 Mortgage crisis and Covid, each and every time the market has regained its prior level and gone on to reach even higher and each time I was consistently throwing more money into the holdings. This time will be no different whether it takes 2 month or 2 years I can't predict, but probably much closer to the former than the latter.

My advice to those that frequently ask what to do, is nothing, unless you want to buy more, especially younger investors with the benefit of time on their side. It is very easy to get out of a down market, when to get back in is the hard part, most people either miss it or stay out entirely and miss out even more.

Why do you believe this?

I can't speak for Scott, but 150 years of history say stock markets go up over time, and the reasons that is so -- improvements in efficiency and innovation -- have never been truer than now. Short term pullbacks happen. Markets go up over time. Look at a chart of the Dow since its inception.

As for the current crisis, it's noise IMO. Unless the tariffs wreck the economy, the economy is strong, technology and innovation are unbelievable, it will be fine.

I should have been clearer - I was specifically asking about the bold part - "that it will be closer to 2 months than 2 years"

Several reasons, firstly someone on one side or the other of the tariffs will fold, and/or the Fed will make a move(lower interest rates), and investors will also realize that multiples are now much lower and the market is oversold. Part of the equation is company earnings as well, and whatever the headwind, companies tend to find a way to increase their earnings through good times and bad, using price pass increases to the consumer or by cutting costs, either way the bottom line comes out positive. Lastly, also consider the huge amount of cash sitting on the sideline, a few hints of good news and the market will "Melt-up" pretty quickly.

None of this is financial advice, just my thoughts and experiences in past downturns.

Not a political comment per se, but under Article I of the Constitution it is Congress that has power over tariffs. If this REALLY goes south and starts threatening people's chances of reelection because the economy collapses, Congress may do something. But I doubt it will come to that.

Appreciate your thoughts.

I have read some things that sound like the beginnings of this.

With all the mixed messaging, partisanship and spin (on both sides), and tone deafness, it's very hard to get a straightforward sense of things, IMO.

Great card!

Reading the tea leaves of the market is like arguing about baseball, but my sense is that the market is pricing in the risk that there is neither strategy nor competence underpinning the tariff policies -- and that American institutions are losing their prestige both domestically and internationally. If "flight to quality" means a flight of capital to somewhere other than the US, then we have a very big problem.

I'm personally of the view that logic prevails over time, but I think the market isn't as confident about that than I am.

Japan stock market up 6 percent. Dow futures up 700 as we speak. The sky is not falling, yet anyhow.

It’s the dead cat bounce!

Unless it’s not…

LOL. Exactly. Sometimes that dead cat keeps on bouncing doesn't he.

So PSA bungled the initial analysis and cost that first consignor how many thousands of dollars due to its (expensive) incompetence? Hey, PSA:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...0Impressed.gif

Japan has been bumped to negotiate. Vietnam wants a deal, but the administration wants more of something...whatever it is...

China is close to starting a currency devaluation war and they don't seem to be willing to play this game every country in the world is being forced to play.

The market spoke clearly yesterday on a mutli-thousand point bump based on a rumor and took that bump away just as quickly as it was deemed just a rumor. It's about the tariffs, and only the tariffs. That's the symptom and solution.

People are yearning for the floor. Any good news should bounce, but who knows what level of bad can erase it, minor or major.

Anyway, a there's a lot of savings accounts giving 3.7-4% right now and it's not swayed by the whims of whatever the hell is going on with forcefully trying to reset the world economic order for the hell of it. Well, China going to a currency war could force up inflation rates and eventually give better interest rates on savings.

I'm somewhat surprised that China hasn't (i) shut down Tesla's entire supply chain in China and (ii) started selling some Treasuries from its foreign currency reserves. I suppose that's a good sign.

Scott--the problem with PEs is that you are looking at numbers from two different periods. The E is something that came from months ago and the P is the current price reflecting what will happen going forward. Some countries may capitulate, but my sense is that most won't. More importantly, what happens to US companies. Trump needs to negotiate carve outs with them in exchange for domestic investment or this thing, in my opinion, will end up a lot worse than it even looks now. The longer this goes on the more difficult it will be for a Trump to save face and we all know how important that is to him. Will the market come back to its prior highs--I believe at some point it will. But that point could be a long way in the future. I wonder how those UAW workers who were at trump's announcement feel about their pension plans now.

Is the end near?
 

Since I have been doing the memorabilia thing, Paul Volker pulled the plug on money around 1980-81; Black Monday in 1987 where the Dow dropped 22.6% in one day; 9/11, which speaks for itself; the housing crisis in 2008; Covid, 2020-2l...and now this.

The only difference between everything that happened before what has been going on for the last week is that we know how the other stuff turned out.

Oh, yeah, and people who can afford it never stopped buying memorabilia.

Looking at Treasury yields now, it looks like people are indeed selling. The flight to safety might indeed be to somewhere other than America.

The difference between what we are seeing today and the prior crises that you enumerated is that this one is self inflicted and can at least partially if not entirely reversed quickly. Will it be--only time will tell.

-
I can't imagine another country where I would feel safer with my money and potential growth over time than the US stock market. By a wide margin...
-

I felt this way until recently. The markets don't like chaos...and that's what america voted for...and that's what we'll have.

Many times when chaos hits the markets it's how people with guts willing to take a chance get wealthy. It can only happen if they have the cash to deploy into US equities and the stones to do it...you only have to get rich once.

I'm certainly not disputing that argument that chaos breeds opportunity...BUT...the odds of "guessing" correctly are not great...and the majority is getting hurt.

That’s what I did a day after Bear Stearns collapsed in 2008. But then again, I was young and reckless.

You had the guts and I bet it paid off for you. Good Job !!

It was easier to guess at that time. Warren Buffett was called in to give advice and vouch for financial institutions. Those in charge didn’t want the economy to tank. Today all bets are off. I harvested my losses and put them in cash. I’m not convinced with 5-10 year treasuries and I may not live long enough for the 20-30 year treasuries to mature.

definitely scary times...imho...I was contemplating an early retirement in a few years but now that is not likely! The "president" will take the country/world economy down just to get his way...right or wrong...and that's damn scary.

You know what America has always been known for? Rule of law, political stability, and global leadership with respect to democratic values.

Those bedrocks of American exceptionalism are being undermined now -- it's not a political statement; it is a factual statement.

China, Europe, and every other country with properly qualified and competent technocrats are going to diversify away from the US -- permanently. It's not a Trump issue; it's an American issue. America has shown that its electorate is collectively capable of making decisions that are antithetical to those three things that America, heretofore, as always been known for.

I hope I'm wrong, because I find myself really sad thinking about it these days.

I just saw the headlines everyone is selling off bonds now. In normal times, when it doesn’t make sense buying stocks or bonds then go into collectibles. I’m not too sure now.

Dow up 2200, doom and gloomers.

And, the tariffs have just been paused again. We are living in a bad reality TV show.

If I want politics and volatility I know where to find it. Let's not bring it here.

Pretty big bounce today!

Maybe the cat wasn't so dead after all.

Well, technically "Hurrah I lost 3% of my wealth" is better than "Hurrah I lost 7% of my wealth"

Sad that it can’t go down every day! We’ll need to pivot to something else. Damnit.

Wow, this guy just figured out how to manipulate the stock market, with the ultimate insider information.

I'm sure he wouldn't use this to benefit himself and his fellow cronies.......would he? :rolleyes:

Let's keep politics out, please. I have my own views too, as we all do. I am not necessarily disagreeing, or agreeing, but please take it somewhere else. (other members too)

.

Nice to see the rally today but the important thing to remember is that this is far from over and no one has any idea what the ultimate outcome will be. I saw that Vietnam offered to eliminate all tariffs on US goods and the administration said that this is not enough. I don't know if the government wants a deal and, if so, what it would believe a fair deal is. I think that some of the goals of the tariffs will be achieved--some jobs will eventually return to the US, but I don't know how to compare adding a few million jobs say to having higher costs for several hundred million people.
China is the second largest holder of US treasuries (Japan first, UK third). Piss off China enough and this could escalate to a financial war and if China stops buying our obligations rates will rise and the cost of financing our 1.1 trillion dollar deficit will grow.

More like a Cat Zoomie.

At the same time, it's not like China can just do whatever it wants.

All those dollars they make selling us stuff have to go somewhere. Either they can buy treasuries, or they can buy other stuff with those dollars. Or I guess they could convert those dollars back into 人民幣 (aka 元 or yuan).

Except that if they trade all those dollars for their own currency, then our currency would weaken, and theirs would strengthen, which makes their goods that much more expensive in dollar terms.

That is only one of the effects. The higher tariffs mean lower Chinese sales in the US and thus less dollars to sell. Also, one less major buyer of treasuries means higher interest rates which will, all else held equal, strengthen the dollar. How it all shakes out--who knows?

It’s beyond exhausting. Regarding the thread, minimize the madness and buy cardboard. I bet this shitshow ends up being good for card values, more of a log flume than a triple loop, no gravity, upside down, roller coaster.

The many people, on both sides of the aisle, who choose to continually ignore the “no political posts” rule on Net 54 is beyond exhausting.

Given it is the usual cast of characters, again, both sides of the aisle, who have posted here long enough to clearly know the rule, truly makes me wonder why they can’t abide by it.

There aren’t many rules on Net 54, and it’s very easy to follow the few that exist. For most people.

Thank God, for once I'm not involved.

"China is the second largest holder of US treasuries (Japan first, UK third). Piss off China enough and this could escalate to a financial war and if China stops buying our obligations rates will rise and the cost of financing our 1.1 trillion dollar deficit will grow."


China's holdings of US treasuries have declined from $1.3 billion in 2013 to ~$750 billion at the end of the last year. I'm guessing they have been a heavy seller of US treasuries in the last week, which likely contributed to the spike in bond yields over that period. Bond yields spiking is one of the reasons why there is a 90-day delay in the announced tariff policy (with the exception of China). With $36+ trillion in national debt, $2 trillion in structural annual deficits -- including $1 trillion in annual debt interest costs (higher than we spend on national defense) -- it becomes even more expensive to be a debtor when yields increase. Expect the government to do everything in its power to avoid a further spike in yields, including aggressively buying US treasuries in the open market if any foreign nation is dumping a large amount.

the post seemed to veer towards politics as politics are clearly involved in whats happening in the stock markets. And I jumped in. I certainly don't see modern material/card posts in the vintage section being ridiculed...and this happens all the time. rules are rules? or are there degrees of rules?

+1. The US has only been solvent because Treasuries have been a safe haven and, by extension, the US dollar has been the world's reserve currency. There is no amount of fiscal, budgetary or monetary policy that can rescue us financially if that armor is somehow pierced.

It probably doesn’t help that just about everything is political these days. So it’s real easy to get there.

And sometimes we can dance around the edge of being political while not really fully crossing the line. But then someone sees others getting right up to that line, gets a little frisky, or is feeling particularly vexed about it, and decides to dance over the line a bit.

Next thing you know, Leon has to intervene to remind us that we’re over the line.

If you don't think this is happening you're being willfully ignorant.

I just want to know how many eggs I can get for a VG common M101-4 and if I want to trade using a Maple Crispette or World Wide Gum will there be an extra surcharge on the trade.

-
Just like its been happening in Congress on both sides of the aisle for years.

Interesting this time he posted "this is a great time to buy" on "X" prior to his decision so everybody had the chance to participate.

Strange times indeed.
-

Blind trusts. :eek::cool::D

-
It's just a grift man, much like,

Congresses insider trading grift.
Bidens Ukraine grift.
USAIDs NGO grift.
California's Homeless Industrial Complex Grift.
Etc, Etc...
The only difference is this grift is raw and out in the open. I suppose the pearl clutchers prefer their cons presented in a polite back room forum where we can ignore/deny it while we live in our perfect bubbles.

Maybe, just maybe, this will bring about valuable conversations with Americans in the middle and institute change that doesn't include the far right or far left.

Speaking of cats, my Walter got his first kill of the spring today. Big Norwegian roof rat. Broke its neck and left it for me in the front yard.

Hey, it’s better than politics.

Reminds me of a favorite bumper sticker I have seen that has a depiction of an elephant with a box beside it, a donkey with a box beside it, and a cat with a box beside it.

The cat is the one with a big check mark inside its box.


Brian

Schrodinger is one of my favorite cats.

Well done, Walter.

Well done, Walter.

Why not? Here are some shots of Styx who was our most cooperative model:

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...bee6097125.jpg

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...f5b52bad66.jpg

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...a5e049e23e.jpg

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...d92554f719.jpg

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...a19f9ffc86.jpg

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...a60c92d15a.jpg

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...7df9624e0e.jpg

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...cf5efcf2ea.jpg

When it comes to markets, sometimes they go up, sometimes they go down. Any (honest) stockbroker will tell you that.

;)

If we're discussing tarifs, the stock market, etc., then how do we avoid politics ? That's like saying "you can discuss sports cards, but not grading." :rolleyes:

I'm fine with discussing sports cards and not PSA/SGC grading.

;)

How have you been, Mr. Fox ??

Generally, if you think you are making a political post, you are. :eek:
You will get a PM if it goes too far. :)

If everyone is somewhat cool, it will be ok. I am part of the economy, just like eveyrone else, and getting my ass kicked back and forth in the market too. I can't imagine either side of the aisle likes a roller coaster ride with our savings. Let's just leave it at that.

My daily living monies are probably too close to my stock market monies. Not a huge issue... Fortunately, I have baseball cards as one of my asset classes (as do many of us).

And has been said, countless times, the market will come back, we just don't know when!

The question remains, do you spend more, less, or the same when the market goes down quite a bit? I tend to spend less but that is just me.


ps.. I like Styx the cat.

.

The prices of the stuff we want has gone up tremendously since covid. So much so, that I have bought practically zero pre-war that fits with my pre war collection standards ... until now. Actually, my yearly collecting theme has been to just not sell anything, am doing very well with that. Anyways, I just bought a 1926-29 Lou Gehrig Exhibit, it was SGC 3.5 which is a bit below my standards, but heck appears to be a nice card. Its the most I have spent in a long, long time.

Still collecting, still posting and in general staying both physically and mentally active (and acerbic) all around.

And when it comes to politics, I'll be working for Elections Canada as a Central Poll Supervisor on April 28th. Elections Canada needs my learning skills and ability to project authority. I need the money to finance my basic needs, e.g. rookie cards of Jackie Parker, Sam Etcheverry, Bobby Hull, Rocky Colavito, Roger Maris, Phil Niekro, Frank Robinson, etc. The negative though is that I'm facing a grueling sixteen hour work day.

;)

Havent logged on in awhile but as usual im sure a lot of posts here did not age well..

i wonder how my advice of just buying the S and P index fund like SPY would have gone...?