Market gridlock

[Snapolit1]

Seems to me that large parts of the market for cards and collectibles is just frozen. Stuck in the mud. Sellers looking at where we were not too long ago asking for well more than buyers are offering. eBay a museum platform in many ways as as often discussed. At auction, big headline stuff sells but lots underperform. A few recent auction I was counting all the lots they didn’t meet reserve. I’ve seen it both as a seller (even here) and a buyer. Hope there is some healthy adjustment or readjustment coming.

Reminds me of that old song, “there ain’t no good guy …. There ain’t no bad guy …. There’s just you and me and we just disagree ….”

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Seems to me that large parts of the market for cards and collectibles is just frozen. Stuck in the mud. Sellers looking at where we were not too long ago asking for well more than buyers are offering. eBay a museum platform in many ways as as often discussed. At auction, big headline stuff sells but lots underperform. A few recent auction I was counting all the lots they didn’t meet reserve. I’ve seen it both as a seller (even here) and a buyer. Hope there is some healthy adjustment or readjustment coming.

Reminds me of that old song, “there ain’t no good guy …. There ain’t no bad guy …. There’s just you and me and we just disagree ….”

I bet if Dave Mason was a card collector, he'd have said something different:
“there ain’t no good schmucks …. there ain't no bad schmucks …. There’s only you and me and we just disagree ….”

Yup, hoping for a healthy readjustment and hope it's coming soon.

Lousy time to be a flipper, eh...

[BobbyStrawberry]

Totally agree. Even the BST activity here seems to have slowed way down from the past few years.

[Snapolit1]

I’ve been on all sides of it. Recently tried to see a photo on BST that was priced at $600 less than a nowhere nice version sold last month at REA. And I prob have gone lower, trying to raise a little $$. Not a sniff. Maybe I need to form a company and change my name.

[mrreality68]

A lot of us might have more then spent our funds(I liked to buy 2 quality items a year) now last few years so many people selling their collections so many items have not seen in years and were afraid might not appear again for a while so many of us started over buying. So now I was doing 4 or 5 items a year.
Love it all but not much time to regroup when something next comes.

As the market continues/continues to go up bigger investments. So many took profits on what they bought pre spike or during early portions.

Now as the market has kind of caught up people that spent a lot are waiting for values to go up to take profit or as collectors enjoying what we have.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I’ve been on all sides of it. Recently tried to see a photo on BST that was priced at $600 less than a nowhere nice version sold last month at REA. And I prob have gone lower, trying to raise a little $$. Not a sniff. Maybe I need to form a company and change my name.

I don't know about others, but I have a little fatigue with the exorbitant prices of the top players.
.

[BobbyStrawberry]

I wonder if a general sense of uncertainty has a part in it as well.... prices on goods at record highs, multiple wars raging abroad with no end in sight, widespread domestic political dysfunction... Of course I could be completely wrong that this has anything to do with it but it might be a factor

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Totally agree. Even the BST activity here seems to have slowed way down from the past few years.

I have noticed that also. I don't see as many T210s or T212s anymore. Also don't see near as much lower priced odd ball stuff.

Totally pumping up the BST $1 auction section here. We usually have between 8-16 auctions every week with a $1 opening bid. It is an awesome place to sell something you no longer collect or pick up something nice at a reasonable price.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Seems to me that large parts of the market for cards and collectibles is just frozen. Stuck in the mud. Sellers looking at where we were not too long ago asking for well more than buyers are offering. eBay a museum platform in many ways as as often discussed. At auction, big headline stuff sells but lots underperform. A few recent auction I was counting all the lots they didn’t meet reserve. I’ve seen it both as a seller (even here) and a buyer. Hope there is some healthy adjustment or readjustment coming.

Reminds me of that old song, “there ain’t no good guy …. There ain’t no bad guy …. There’s just you and me and we just disagree ….”

It’s disinterest and malaise. People still spend but they aren’t spending like they use to. They might put their money against one auction item vice five items like in the past.

2024 will be interesting for sure. I think a lot of guys are going to have to decide how they want to proceed in terms of buying and selling.

[Republicaninmass]

Breather before the working class stiffs get their refunds, or anticipation loans, before spring training. Q2 will be the test for the market

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by Leon

I don't know about others, but I have a little fatigue with the exorbitant prices of the top players.
.

I second that Leon.

[Johnny630]

People want it both ways and when they can’t get either they hold their stuff because in their mind they can’t let it go this cheap compared to 2 years ago comps(of which many in AH I Believe no money was exchanged for). People crying now who doesn’t sell then I have to time for. You gotta be content both ways if you fail to be patient to some extent in one of the ways above when it’s hot.

The economic situation of the persons who own these cards and may want to sell them now is still very strong, collectors or dealers from what I’ve noticed that have these cards have plenty of money and do not want to roll the dice placing the card in auction so they’re gonna have high sticker prices on their stuff continually at the shows and online buy it now’s.

[Peter_Spaeth]

That cards are selling for much less never seems to be true when I am looking to buy one.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

That cards are selling for much less never seems to be true when I am looking to buy one.

Ditto. Maybe you and I need to stop getting into bidding wars with each other.

[ejharrington]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Seems to me that large parts of the market for cards and collectibles is just frozen. Stuck in the mud. Sellers looking at where we were not too long ago asking for well more than buyers are offering. eBay a museum platform in many ways as as often discussed. At auction, big headline stuff sells but lots underperform. A few recent auction I was counting all the lots they didn’t meet reserve. I’ve seen it both as a seller (even here) and a buyer. Hope there is some healthy adjustment or readjustment coming.

Reminds me of that old song, “there ain’t no good guy …. There ain’t no bad guy …. There’s just you and me and we just disagree ….”

For the stuff I collect, I've been no signs of the market slowing. Prices keep going up.

[Snowman]

Meanwhile, I tried to win a 1954 Topps Willie Mays SGC 5 last night on Heritage and dropped out after bidding it up to $2800 ("comps" are around $800). Pretty much all the cards I've been buying are still going for record highs.

[Directly]

Cant say this with some Farm land Prices. --yesterday offered 50% more than last offer-- In comparisons kind of like any desirable collectables including some baseball cards--not making anymore 1954 Topps , etc.

[jefferyepayne]

I can't count how many times I've heard a dealer say "I've got more into it than that" when I make an offer. This is even for cards with comps in the same range. I guess many who bought at the top of the market are just gonna sit tight and wait.

jeff

[brunswickreeves]

Sometimes ya gotta just take a down round to keep growing…

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

I second that Leon.

I agree so

I see your Léon and raise you one more Leon

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

I wonder if a general sense of uncertainty has a part in it as well.... prices on goods at record highs, multiple wars raging abroad with no end in sight, widespread domestic political dysfunction... Of course I could be completely wrong that this has anything to do with it but it might be a factor

I'm betting that THIS is exactly what's wrong with it and it wont get fixed until November 2024.....

[glynparson]

Exempting the unnatural pandemic market prices are almost always down a good bit in December. When I was flush with cash before I got sick I would buy tons of material
In December. It’s generally a great time to pick up stuff. Less competition due to people
Buying stuff for family at the holidays and often some more things in the market because people are trying to generate cash to buy presents. I don’t judge the market much on what happens in December. If it’s still this stagnant and down when February rolls around it will be of more concern than it being down right now. Either way we are clearly down from the absurd pandemic market but everyone that was being rational and honest knew the market could not stay like it was in 2020-2022.

[pherbener]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I’ve been on all sides of it. Recently tried to see a photo on BST that was priced at $600 less than a nowhere nice version sold last month at REA. And I prob have gone lower, trying to raise a little $$. Not a sniff. Maybe I need to form a company and change my name.

I think photos sometimes are tough when selling directly vs. auction. I had a photo up on the BST and ebay a couple of years ago for $10K and ended up selling in RMY a few months later for over $18K

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by jefferyepayne

I can't count how many times I've heard a dealer say "I've got more into it than that" when I make an offer. This is even for cards with comps in the same range. I guess many who bought at the top of the market are just gonna sit tight and wait.

jeff

They are actually dollar cost averaging. See 5-10 of the same overpriced low to molid grade HOF rcs sitting in the same case. Dealers are taking the Levi "707" approach, but won't have the political acumen to keep it up

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Exempting the unnatural pandemic market prices are almost always down a good bit in December. When I was flush with cash before I got sick I would buy tons of material
In December. It’s generally a great time to pick up stuff. Less competition due to people
Buying stuff for family at the holidays and often some more things in the market because people are trying to generate cash to buy presents. I don’t judge the market much on what happens in December. If it’s still this stagnant and down when February rolls around it will be of more concern than it being down right now. Either way we are clearly down from the absurd pandemic market but everyone that was being rational and honest knew the market could not stay like it was in 2020-2022.

I concur. It's the most wonderful time of the year, unless you are a card seller. Same is true of many other trades. From Thanksgiving to around the 2nd week in January my practice slows way down. No one wants to do anything that might interfere with travel and family plans. I had a hearing last week, judge was on vacation, and his replacement kicked the hearing to July.

About the only thing I'd add to glyn's point is that we are in a very typical period before the market bottoms out, which will come once we see the folks who holding out for higher prices decide they have to sell: the capitulation sales. We'll go flat for a while and then demand will grow again, same as it ever was.

[Snapolit1]

The only good thing with getting old is the ability to see the same cycles repeat themselves time and again.


QUOTE=Exhibitman;2399729]I concur. It's the most wonderful time of the year, unless you are a card seller. Same is true of many other trades. From Thanksgiving to around the 2nd week in January my practice slows way down. No one wants to do anything that might interfere with travel and family plans. I had a hearing last week, judge was on vacation, and his replacement kicked the hearing to July.

About the only thing I'd add to glyn's point is that we are in a very typical period before the market bottoms out, which will come once we see the folks who holding out for higher prices decide they have to sell: the capitulation sales. We'll go flat for a while and then demand will grow again, same as it ever was.[/QUOTE]

[bbcard1]

Of the significant cards I bought last year...1954 Kaline, 1953 Robinson, 1954 Banks and 1948 Leaf, I am pretty sure I could buy three of them today for 20% less or better. Honestly, most of the stuff that is gridlocked can be expected. They are good cards that are readily available.

[Snapolit1]

I feel like the 1932 Sanella Ruth was a turning point. Lol. When I saw people spending $5000 for that card I knew something had gone a little nutty.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I feel like the 1932 Sanella Ruth was a turning point. Lol. When I saw people spending $5000 for that card I knew something had gone a little nutty.

You're kidding, right? Was it graded a "10"?

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by Fred

You're kidding, right? Was it graded a "10"?

Agree! I remember not too long ago when 48 Leaf Ruth SGC or PSA Authentic grades were well under $1K.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I feel like the 1932 Sanella Ruth was a turning point. Lol. When I saw people spending $5000 for that card I knew something had gone a little nutty.

Originally Posted by Fred

You're kidding, right? Was it graded a "10"?

WOW, I went and looked at the sold prices on them. I always thought they were seriously undervalued. Not anymore.

I bought a near perfect example of the hardest version for a little over a hundred dollars several years ago from a fellow member.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by jefferyepayne

I can't count how many times I've heard a dealer say "I've got more into it than that" when I make an offer. This is even for cards with comps in the same range. I guess many who bought at the top of the market are just gonna sit tight and wait. jeff

+1. In the spirit of Festivus, I can't wait for this lame excuse for an excuse to disappear from the hobby lexicon--as if it ever will! Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, cares what you (the dealer) have into it. If you overpaid, that's your problem, buddy.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Exempting the unnatural pandemic market prices are almost always down a good bit in December. When I was flush with cash before I got sick I would buy tons of material In December. It’s generally a great time to pick up stuff. Less competition due to people buying stuff for family at the holidays and often some more things in the market because people are trying to generate cash to buy presents. I don’t judge the market much on what happens in December.

I could never understand, from the start of the catalog auction era 30 years ago, until now, why December seems to be the one month in which ALL the big AHs choose to stage one of their two or three major auctions a year, some of them within a week or two of Xmas. But these guys know their business, so there must be something going on there or they wouldn't keep doing it. Year end bonuses, dividends, stock sales to lock in capital gains losses to take against gains, tax refunds looming, etc? There must be enough cash floating around at this time to make it worth their while to compete with Christmas spending, which normally wouldn't seem to be the smartest thing to do.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

I could never understand, from the start of the catalog auction era 30 years ago, until now, why December seems to be the one month in which ALL the big AHs choose to stage one of their two or three major auctions a year, some of them within a week or two of Xmas. But these guys know their business, so there must be something going on there or they wouldn't keep doing it. Year end bonuses, dividends, stock sales to lock in capital gains losses to take against gains, tax refunds looming, etc? There must be enough cash floating around at this time to make it worth their while to compete with Christmas spending, which normally wouldn't seem to be the smartest thing to do.

I've done a lot of predictive modeling in other markets that account for seasonality, and it doesn't really have much of an effect on higher net worth individuals. It's primarily a financial pressure on the middle and lower classes with respect to spending habits. I suspect this is why they still run their larger auctions because they really only care about the big ticket items anyhow, and those hammer prices aren't really going to be affected by seasonality.

That said, other factors like interest rates, political and social unrest, and conflicts abroad all certainly do have measurable effects across all income levels.

[notfast]

I think any “gridlock” is by people not realizing every new sale isn’t a new high and that a lot of stuff is available a lot more often than it was in the past.

C

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I've done a lot of predictive modeling in other markets that account for seasonality, and it doesn't really have much of an effect on higher net worth individuals. It's primarily a financial pressure on the middle and lower classes with respect to spending habits. I suspect this is why they still run their larger auctions because they really only care about the big ticket items anyhow, and those hammer prices aren't really going to be affected by seasonality. That said, other factors like interest rates, political and social unrest, and conflicts abroad all certainly do have measurable effects across all income levels.

This all makes sense, thanks. I would add one other possibility, something which I think I noticed from doing shows for 20 years: Perhaps somewhat counterintuitively, baseball collectors seem to be more engaged in their hobby in the off-seasons, perhaps less distracted by the actual games and pennant races going on during them.