What the hobby is becoming

[Peter_Spaeth]

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1474435

At first I thought these stats and charts were a parody lol. No wonder I feel left behind.

[mouschi]

Wow... that's eye opening

[Peter_Spaeth]

Not sure when the generational shift happened, but it clearly has happened. It's gem rates and social media influencers and apps and crypto and Prizm and modern modern modern. People like me and I suspect many of the old guard here aren't even on the radar screen. So be it.

[slightlyrounded]

Will this forever be known as the “junk-slab” era?

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by slightlyrounded

Will this forever be known as the “junk-slab” era?

[Lorewalker]

And this is the stuff that makes up the majority of the 10 million plus backlog we keep hearing about.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

And this is the stuff that makes up the majority of the 10 million plus backlog we keep hearing about.

Prizm and Pokémon!!

[seanofjapan]

I’ve been away from North America for a long time. Can somebody fill me in on the series of events which have transpired in my absence which led to 1990 Fleer Michael Jordans becoming the dominant card in the hobby?

[sportscardpete]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

I’ve been away from North America for a long time. Can somebody fill me in on the series of events which have transpired in my absence which led to 1990 Fleer Michael Jordans becoming the dominant card in the hobby?

I saw the PSA states and how base Jordan’s have been such a big portion of grading volume. Has to be everyone going through previously worthless binders and bulk grading those cards.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Not sure when the generational shift happened, but it clearly has happened. It's gem rates and social media influencers and apps and crypto and Prizm and modern modern modern...

Many of today's hobbyists are cut from a different cloth, and that's OK. Let them obsess over Gem Mint 10s, parrot their Internet "celebrities" of choice, spend more time looking at cards on their phone than in hand, deal in volatile virtual currency, collect cards that might curl like a Pringle, and chase ultra-modern from morning 'til midnight.

Meanwhile, I'll obsess over well-centered EX 5s, listen to YouTube as background noise while getting work done, spend my time and money on cards rather than subscription services, deal in old-fashioned fiat currency, collect cards that might have been altered at some point, and chase vintage from morning 'til midnight.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

...People like me and I suspect many of the old guard here aren't even on the radar screen. So be it.

I rather enjoy being under the radar.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Not sure when the generational shift happened, but it clearly has happened. It's gem rates and social media influencers and apps and crypto and Prizm and modern modern modern. People like me and I suspect many of the old guard here aren't even on the radar screen. So be it.

We would all have to hang up our spurs if that crowd ever became interested in our quiet corner of the hobby Peter. I don't know how many Jordan Rookies PSA graded last month, nor do I care. I do know that that PSA has only graded 99 examples of a 1921 Exhibits Ruth, ever.

[JustinD]

What kills me is 10 years ago I was selling the junk to make space and couldn’t move 1990 Fleer BB wax boxes at 5 bucks per because the shipping exceeded the cost.

I never thought the stuff would be worth anything. To be honest I still don’t think it’s worth anything but the slab junkies do.

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

I’ve been away from North America for a long time. Can somebody fill me in on the series of events which have transpired in my absence which led to 1990 Fleer Michael Jordans becoming the dominant card in the hobby?

Well, it's not the "dominant" card in the hobby, it's just the currently most graded one. Saying dominant makes you think it's a card most people want in their collection. It's still not.

Here's the Cliff Notes:
1) Worthless cards not graded very often for the last 30 years.
2) Basketball modern going nuts from 2017-2020.
3) Jordan '86 Fleer PSA 10s going from $20K a couple of years ago to $750K on Goldin a few months back. (This is obviously despite how many are trimmed by Robert Block and his friends that PSA couldn't catch, and some sellers at the National in 2018 having an entire case full of them.
4) Trickle down effect to '87, '88, '89 Fleer Jordans since those are some kind of all-important run of the GOAT.
5) COVID keeping everyone at home hearing about sky-high prices and finding their old collections.
6) Run on junk wax going for 10-100x what it went for a few years ago.
7) The Last Dance ESPN series in April 2020 reminding people about Jordan being best ever, forcing everyone and their grandmother to look for PSA graded copies. Since they were worthless until then (basically) and "LOW POP!!!21!@@!!!" and PSA ran a grading special for just Jordan cards, all those people sent in their heretofore worthless raw Jordan card to make dolla-dolla bills y'all.

Also, there was a huge increase in crypto valuations and the Fed kept giving away "free money" and there was nothing else to spend money on (vacations, restaurants, movies, sports games) for about a year, and much of it flooded into sports cards, since that was a great place to beat inflation. Well, it was at the time. Let's see what it is in Jan 2022...

Update: added image showing some price progression information.

[Johnny630]

It's becoming a greed fueled, money driven addiction for many.....these guys submitting all these Jordan's don't love the cards like we love our vintage they love the thrill, chance, and chase of the big pay off.

[Rich Klein]

One other thing to remember about basketball cards is the people who are re-entering, have re-entered or joined our hobby in the past year are primarily of the age where....

Well when basketball cards led by Jordan were actually more popular than baseball cards among the kids and the 20-25 year pattern we always noticed in cards from when people returned from the 3C's (Cars, Cuties and College) were more basketball conscious than baseball conscious.

So... guess what they went to,,, yep, basketball cards

Rich

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Prizm and Pokémon!!

and junk wax Jordans.

[Republicaninmass]

99% of the cards are at psa for a quick flip...lol


Going to be a long flop. Someone mentioned to me a luka rc card they sold for 6k, is now selling for 250$. If that's the case, it will be a mad rush to the bottom once these cards come back from psa. Even if people break even, they'll be so ashamed to have.a 1990 fleet jordan psa 8, they'll sell.

[Tyruscobb]

Just one number caught my eye - 24,500. This is how many cards PSA graded each day in June. WoW.

This is great news for Bobby’s two outstanding piggyback groups. Maybe we will get our cards back before 2022.

[notfast]

PSA ran a special on grading Jordan cards…so this isn’t a completely unbiased #.

[butchie_t]

Originally Posted by JustinD

What kills me is 10 years ago I was selling the junk to make space and couldn’t move 1990 Fleer BB wax boxes at 5 bucks per because the shipping exceeded the cost.

I never thought the stuff would be worth anything. To be honest I still don’t think it’s worth anything but the slab junkies do.

I need to find these slab junkies that you speak of. I have junk wax and I am not above taking as much of their money that I can to fuel my quest for older sets.

[Mike D.]

3-4 years ago, I got into graded cards as it gave the cards I loved from the 70’s-early 90’s some value. I did a lot of upgrading from raw to graded for cards I had, and also filled in some gaps.

I’d sell the raw cards to help subsidize the graded buys. It consolidated my collection, added value, and was fun on the cheap.

On average, a PSA graded 9 version cost 2-10x an ungraded copy. Now that number is more like 10-20x or more. And 10’s? Forget it!

[Johnny630]

All these so called collectors who are not, they're fly by night investors in sports cards, once they get out we will all be better. I can't wait till they leave.
These assholes are addicted to 10's for the quick flip they could give two Sh*ts about Jordans Talent or Kobe's... it's all about MONEY.


Could Have Should Have Would Have....I'm in it for the LONG RUN....the Jan-March Numbers Have peoples minds warped, they will never get over it. They will never sell their stuff fair, they will go back to those 3 months, this insures the auction houses will get their cards it's perfect for the AH and PSA. I can't wait for reality to come back.

[jcmtiger]

Originally Posted by JustinD

What kills me is 10 years ago I was selling the junk to make space and couldn’t move 1990 Fleer BB wax boxes at 5 bucks per because the shipping exceeded the cost.

I never thought the stuff would be worth anything. To be honest I still don’t think it’s worth anything but the slab junkies do.

Yup +1

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

These assholes are addicted to 10's for the quick flip they could give two Sh*ts about Jordans Talent or Kobe's... it's all about MONEY.

Yeah, it feels a lot like the mad rush of the late 80’s. I was just a kid then but even at 10-12 it was obvious.

And I’ve done very few PSA subs, and 75% of those aren’t back yet, but my rule is that you enjoy the 9’s and sell the 10’s. I can’t tell the difference between a 9 and a 10 in hand, and 10’s sell for stupid money

[swarmee]

There was a guy on blowout that posted his experience with PSA: he had submitted an entire 200+ submission a year ago when 2020 Topps came out that had almost all base cards of the rookie class. Those graded card prices have plummeted as more continue to enter the market, and he was going to take a bath when they finally charge his credit card. So he requested that PSA send it back ungraded, and PSA agreed. Smart guy getting out before he's trying flip them at pennies on the dollar, even compared to the $15/card or so grading fee he locked into when he sent them.
Now the cheapest grading level is $200 for the next few months at a minimum.

[conor912]

I attended my first show last weekend since 2019 and had some interesting observations. The lion's share of the inventories for the lion's share of the dealers was all within the last 5 years. While that's typically not what I collect, I have found some pockets of interest and spoke to many of these dealers. They were just about all in their 20's and 30's, and extremely nice, helpful, and enthusiastic. I had a nice interaction/conversation with each and every one. The energy in the room was great, someone had music playing, and I had more fun than I have in a long time at a show, even though I only left having only spent 20 bucks.

....then there were a few old guy dealers selling vintage, just sitting there with no one at their tables, arms crossed, looking curmudgeonly and completely unapproachable. In that environment, it was easy to pass them right over. It got me asking myself how on earth they could expect modern collectors to appreciate vintage with outward attitudes like that.

[samosa4u]

This is the reason why I had to wait half a year to get my beautiful vintage cards back! PSA was too busy trying to get this garbage out of their door! Anyhow, I am glad that PSA suspended all the lower grading levels. This will keep all those rats out.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by conor912

I attended my first show last weekend since 2019 and had some interesting observations. The lion's share of the inventories for the lion's share of the dealers was all within the last 5 years. While that's typically not what I collect, I have found some pockets of interest and spoke to many of these dealers. They were just about all in their 20's and 30's, and extremely nice, helpful, and enthusiastic. I had a nice interaction/conversation with each and every one. The energy in the room was great, someone had music playing, and I had more fun than I have in a long time at a show, even though I only left having only spent 20 bucks.

....then there were a few old guy dealers selling vintage, just sitting there with no one at their tables, arms crossed, looking curmudgeonly and completely unapproachable. In that environment, it was easy to pass them right over. It got me asking myself how on earth they could expect modern collectors to appreciate vintage with outward attitudes like that.

I'm tempted to say the old guy vintage dealers are just bored with it all, but there have been similar complaints practically since shows started 50 years ago. Question: What would you guess the % is between flippers and actual collectors among the younger crowd at recent shows?

[conor912]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

I'm tempted to say the old guy vintage dealers are just bored with it all, but there have been similar complaints practically since shows started 50 years ago. Question: What would you guess the % is between flippers and actual collectors among the younger crowd at recent shows?

I won’t for one second argue with that. It just seemed more magnified this time. If I ever hit a point where I become “bored with it all”, I’ll sure as hell find something else to do with my weekends.

As to the flippers vs. collectors, I have no idea. My main point was commenting on the show-going experience and not what the attendees intend to do with their purchases.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by conor912

I won’t for one second argue with that. It just seemed more magnified this time. If I ever hit a point where I become “bored with it all”, I’ll sure as hell find something else to do with my weekends.

As to the flippers vs. collectors, I have no idea. My main point was commenting on the show-going experience and not what the attendees intend to do with their purchases.

Agreed, my life's ambition is to limit the amount of time I'm bored as much as possible! Also agree on the excitement of the crowds of younger people at shows, off the charts at Philly. I'm just wondering how long it's going to last?

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

I'm just wondering how long it's going to last?

Until they all default on their credit cards... because cards only go up, so why not borrow against them?

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Until they all default on their credit cards... because cards only go up, so why not borrow against them?

That's why I love debit cards. I cut up all my credit cards in the 70s.

[Snapolit1]

It’s funny, people on this board look at Modern cards are say “isn’t this ridiculous…” and then they go back to debating some obscure back variation of a card from 1905 that is largely of interest to no one.

Just sayin.

It’s all relative.

[Touch'EmAll]

The hobby is supposed to be fun. If true vintage brings you fun, great. If modern brings you fun, great. The hobby is flourishing - albeit with some bumps and bruises along the way. There might never have been more people involved as right now, great for the hobby. If you like to try and flip and it brings you fun, nice. If you want to collect and not sell, nice.

My roots was opening packs as a kid and collecting the then current players. Not much different than today - people opening packs and collecting the now current players.

And vintage does seem to be holding up well in the price department for those of us collecting oldies but goodies, very nice. Sure beats prices tanking and everyone yelling the sky is falling, does it not.

This is an awesome hobby. Of course I collect vintage and have very nice cards that would be tough to part with. I also collect modern raw of players I like - also fun and rewarding. I have even played the accumulate and submit to PSA game that has brought me many hours of enjoyment and fun. I have a few Pokemon cards collected with my kid - another avenue of enjoyment.

So much to like and choose from in the hobby today.

[irv]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

It’s funny, people on this board look at Modern cards are say “isn’t this ridiculous…” and then they go back to debating some obscure back variation of a card from 1905 that is largely of interest to no one.

Just sayin.

It’s all relative.

I agree. If it weren't for the steady stream of new blood into the hobby, whether they collect vintage or modern, the hobby would likely die a slow death.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

The hobby is supposed to be fun. If true vintage brings you fun, great. If modern brings you fun, great...

So much to like and choose from in the hobby today.

+1

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by irv

I agree. If it weren't for the steady stream of new blood into the hobby, whether they collect vintage or modern, the hobby would likely die a slow death.

Yes…I think most here have lived through a few “bust” cycles…1994, 2008…when the general consensus was the hobby was dying.

While I’m frustrated that my $ doesn’t go as far as it used to…this is still better!

And yes, money and popularity brings the bad eggs…but it brings a lot of good eggs too.

[oldeboo]

I would guess that people in the past were laughed at for buying T206 cards for 15 or 20 cents a pop, back when some probably thought they were nothing more than overproduced junk. Some probably drew the line in the sand at 5 or 10 cents, while others had no interest at any price since they were so mass produced.

Jordan count 0, just sayin'. We'll know 1990 Fleer Basketball was something special when average grade commons start going for close to 100 bucks a piece.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by oldeboo

I would guess that people in the past were laughed at for buying T206 cards for 15 or 20 cents a pop, back when some probably thought they were nothing more than overproduced junk. Some probably drew the line in the sand at 5 or 10 cents, while others had no interest at any price since they were so mass produced.

Jordan count 0, just sayin'. We'll know 1990 Fleer Basketball was something special when average grade commons start going for close to 100 bucks a piece.

Let's see, you want to sell commons for $100 each and it only costs $200 each to have them graded. That works for me.

By the time you get them back from PSA they will likely be worth $500 each ...................or not.

[oldeboo]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Let's see, you want to sell commons for $100 each and it only costs $200 each to have them graded. That works for me.

By the time you get them back from PSA they will likely be worth $500 each ...................or not.

Hey, you'll be the one kicking yourself if grading fees are over $1,000 in the year 2100, not me. In reality, I would have been in the crowd that though 15 cents for T206 cards was nuts. Completely pointless, but interesting to wonder.

With that said, I'm not buying any 1990 Fleer anytime soon.

[butchie_t]

I liken this latest craze to modern day house flipping. Buy a house, fix it up a bit put it back on the market and sell it for a profit. Shampoo, rinse and repeat.

Only with cards it’s buy the latest craze, get it graded and sell it for a profit…..hopefully. Or, buy graded and try to flip for a higher return.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by butchie_t

I liken this latest craze to modern day house flipping. Buy a house, fix it up a bit put it back on the market and sell it for a profit. Shampoo, rinse and repeat.

Only with cards it’s buy the latest craze, get it graded and sell it for a profit…..hopefully. Or, buy graded and try to flip for a higher return.

I'd venture a guess that 95-99% of card flippers couldn't rewire a house, gut & then renovate a bathroom, or replace windows and exterior doors.

Having done all three, and much more, I can tell you it's a quite a bit harder than flipping cards.

[butchie_t]

Originally Posted by Eric72

I'd venture a guess that 95-99% of card flippers couldn't rewire a house, gut & then renovate a bathroom, or replace windows and exterior doors.

Having done all three, and much more, I can tell you it's a quite a bit harder than flipping cards.

The point and you really missed each other, but ok.

Thanks,

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Here's the Cliff Notes:

Thanks, that is quite interesting. Glad to know there is at least some form of logic driving it. Sort of.

2021 be like:

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by butchie_t

The point and you really missed each other, but ok.

Thanks,

My fault. I thought you were drawing a parallel between two remarkably similar groups of people who swear they know what they're doing, wholeheartedly believe prices will continue to rise, get in over their heads, and lose money stumbling through situations they weren't prepared for.

[Exhibitman]

FWIW every client of mine who is not a contractor and who tried to renovate and flip a house has lost money. When the music stops playing there will be a lot of unhappy 1990 Jordan owners.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by butchie_t

I liken this latest craze to modern day house flipping. Buy a house, fix it up a bit put it back on the market and sell it for a profit. Shampoo, rinse and repeat.

Only with cards it’s buy the latest craze, get it graded and sell it for a profit…..hopefully. Or, buy graded and try to flip for a higher return.

In short " when the shoeshine boy is giving you stock tips and saying how easy "it" is, run for the exits"
History doesnt always repeat itself, though it does make for a mirror