HOF Future Eligibles

[bcbgcbrcb]

With all of the talk this week centering around the 2015 Baseball HOF candidates and how crowded and back-logged the ballot is, I thought it would be fun to take a peek into the future at the next couple of years. In addition to everyone who does not make it this year and retains their eligibility status going forward, here are the biggest names for 2016 & 2017 IMHO:

2016 - Ken Griffey Jr. (no brainer), Trevor Hoffman (likely) & Jim Edmonds (not sure if he has been linked to PED's at all)

2017 - Ivan Rodriguez (PED's), Manny Ramirez (PED's), Vladimir Guerrero (close to a lock) & Jorge Posada (questionable)

I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on the upcoming ballots.........

[Sean]

I really like Vlad Guerrero, but I don't think he gets in... at least not on the first ballot.
I hope I'm wrong.

[btcarfagno]

Trevor Hoffman? Oh please no. And if Jorge Posada gets more than 5% of the vote Ted Simmons should go apeshit on the BBWAA.

Tom C

[Robextend]

I agree, those seem to be the best names out there besides the returning crew.

Griffey no doubt...I had the pleasure of growing up watching him destroy my Yankees time and time again.

Hoffman will get in, although I think his 601 saves is a bit deceiving, as I do not think he was overly dominating. The last few years of his career he racked up an insane amount of saves to help his cause, but his ERA in the span wasn't what you would expect for a hall of fame closer.

Edmonds was never a top 3 MVP vote finisher and only made 4 AS games. These days, 284 AVG, 393HR, under 1200 runs and rbi is def not good enough...not sure he even stays on ballot past a year or two.

Manny is going to succomb to the same fate as McGwire, Clemens, etc...probably even worse since he is a repeat offender in recent years.

I-Rod might get strong support, but he will probably fall shy because of that PED link, although he will probably have a better HOF vote percentage than Manny

Vlad might get in, but he certainly is no lock...wouldn't be surprised if it took a few years.

Posada was a winner and put up good numbers, especially for a catcher, but in my mind he is far from HOF worthy. He was a good player, not great.

[Robextend]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Trevor Hoffman? Oh please no. And if Jorge Posada gets more than 5% of the vote Ted Simmons should go apeshit on the BBWAA.

Tom C

Agreed on Simmons...Posada isn't in the same ballpark as him regarding HOF numbers and the type of hitter Simmons was.

[autocentral]

I think Griffey is a no brainer. Hoffman will get in and the only one of the others with a case is Vlad but I think it is a 50/50 he will get it in.

-Nick

[Klrdds]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Trevor Hoffman? Oh please no. And if Jorge Posada gets more than 5% of the vote Ted Simmons should go apeshit on the BBWAA.

Tom C

Agree with you on Simmons. Posada gets the benefit of the doubt because he was a Yankee. Simmons gets hurt because he was a contemporary with Bench when the Cards were ok to bad and the Reds were one of the best in baseball.

[arc2q]

Are those really the only significant players with first-time eligibility in 2016 and 2017? Things have really thinned out. Even without PEDs to consider, I would consider only Griffey as a HOF lock. Guerrero and Ramirez (my opinion) were historically borderline.

Because I grew up in the 80s I consider every player on what I call the Schmidt-Dawson-Raines-Murphy paradigm (I just made that up). Schmidt was the only lock yet I felt (and still feel) all four were better in their day than the 90's/00's power hitters, including Guerrero, Ramirez, Tejada, Edmonds, Sosa, etc.

[rats60]

Griffey 1st ballot, Vladimir 2nd or 3rd. This will be when Bagwell and Piazza make it. If Hoffman gets in, Billy Wagner should too. I don't want to fill the hall with a bunch of relievers. Everyone else no. We could see a ballot where no one gers 75%.

[Runscott]

I think too many of the voters believe Bagwell and Piazza might be steroid users. The gate still hasn't opened for anyone who even 'might be' one of them.

[Centauri]

Griffey for sure. Manny and Pudge Rodriguez would be no doubt about it HOF'ers based on their resumes. Trevor Hoffman?!? No way.

Allow me moment to laugh at any writer who does not vote for the Big Unit. You sir, are an idiot.

[sycks22]

I know we're talking about future HOF ballots, but it's amazing how dominate Pedro was for a 7-8 span in the middle of his career. From '97 - '03 he led the league in ERA 5 years with era's of 2.89 and an injury plagued year of 2.39 as his other years. Averaged over 250k's and this is all in the AL without the pitcher hitting and obvious steroid era. This is probably the most dominate a pitcher has been for a 7 year span in the last 50 years. He also won 3 Cy Young's and came in 2nd two more times. 2.20 Era for this 7 years, amazing

[bcbgcbrcb]

I'm very surprised that we are now heavily into the PED time frame of HOF balloting and no one has commented on the fact that the most recent selectees are almost all pitchers, Maddux, Glavine, Pedro, Big Unit, Smoltz (most likely) with only Frank Thomas being a position player. This could continue with guys like Schilling & Mussina garnering more votes as the PED position players begin to show up more and more on future ballots. Is it realistic to think that the only "clean" players during this era were pitchers? Why do we assume that they were not using?

In my opinion, Bagwell was a user. His minor league and amateur resume just do not add up to his major league power numbers. I know anything's possible but.......

Piazza's minor league numbers match up somewhat better but did anyone see him during is first year or two in the minors? Was there a big difference in body size and type from his major league physique?

I would also like to make a comprehensive list of known users who finished with the best career stats. Off the top of my head, these are the ones that I can think of:

Bonds
McGwire
Sosa
Sheffield
Clemens
Pettitte
Palmeiro
M. Ramirez
I. Rodriguez
A. Rodriguez
Bagwell (IMHO)
J. Gonzalez
M. Tejada
Braun
Canseco
Ortiz

Does anyone else have any others that would be surefire HOF'ers based on their career stats? Looks like I missed one big name on my list, just added Ortiz now.

[clydepepper]

I think Jim Thome is almost a no-brainer. A well-liked clean-living power hitter who lasted a long time and was consistently productive.

[packs]

Really surprised Posada doesn't get more love. Other than Pudge and Piazza (both linked to PEDs), who was a better catcher during his era?

If you're the best player at your position in your era, that to me makes you a HOFer.

[z28jd]

I really hope they are done putting relievers in. I don't want to see Hoffman in, don't want to see Rivera in and no one that made a living pitching one inning. How many of these saves are 2-3 runs, or facing the bottom of a lineup?

There are guys that were real good pitchers putting in 3-4x more time on the mound because they were better pitchers. Hoffman, Rivera, Wagner and any current closer are failed starters at some point in their career. I think it's laughable they get consideration but a guy like Jim Kaat could be a good pitcher over 4500 innings and we consider guys with 1000 or so innings to be worthy.

Bruce Sutter being in kills me and he pitched for awhile when relievers actually had to work. Basically any post-LaRussa A's relievers are no for me. Craig Kimbrel could have 15 more seasons like he's already had, be the best one inning reliever by far and I wouldn't even consider him.

[packs]

I have no love for most relievers but come on. Mariano Rivera was one of the greatest pitchers of all time. How can you say he's not a HOFer?

[rats60]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

I'm very surprised that we are now heavily into the PED time frame of HOF balloting and no one has commented on the fact that the most recent selectees are almost all pitchers, Maddux, Glavine, Pedro, Big Unit, Smoltz (most likely) with only Frank Thomas being a position player. This could continue with guys like Schilling & Mussina garnering more votes as the PED position players begin to show up more and more on future ballots. Is it realistic to think that the only "clean" players during this era were pitchers? Why do we assume that they were not using?

In my opinion, Bagwell was a user. His minor league and amateur resume just do not add up to his major league power numbers. I know anything's possible but.......

Piazza's minor league numbers match up somewhat better but did anyone see him during is first year or two in the minors? Was there a big difference in body size and type from his major league physique?

I would also like to make a comprehensive list of known users who finished with the best career stats. Off the top of my head, these are the ones that I can think of:

Bonds
McGwire
Sosa
Sheffield
Clemens
Pettitte
Palmeiro
M. Ramirez
I. Rodriguez
A. Rodriguez
Bagwell (IMHO)
J. Gonzalez
M. Tejada
Braun
Canseco

Does anyone else have any others that would be surefire HOF'ers based on their career stats?

David Ortiz

[rats60]

Originally Posted by packs

Really surprised Posada doesn't get more love. Other than Pudge and Piazza (both linked to PEDs), who was a better catcher during his era?

If you're the best player at your position in your era, that to me makes you a HOFer.

So you think Jack Morris belongs in the hof? I don't think so. Being the best at your position over a period of time doesn't make you a hofer. Posada isn't even the best of his era. Piazza for the early part of his career, Joe Mauer for the later part.

[Greg Sonk]

Griffey is the obvious top of the list of all players not yet inducted, given current voting patterns.

When you have voters refusing to consider Jeff Bagwell despite not being named in the Mitchell report, never failing a drug test, and used andro well before it was a banned substance, anyone in the Manny Ramirez situation has no chance, sadly. That takes out Pudge too. It also sinks Gary Sheffield, who is probably the biggest name I see missing from the discussion.

Posada will get in because WINS, but I wouldn't even take him over Edgar Renteria, who shouldn't sniff the Hall.

Vlad Guerrero is the most interesting one to me. I struggle with objectivity in his case because I've never had more fun watching a position player than I have watching one of his at bats. Realistically, he's very much in that Killebrew/Sheffield/etc group of borderline cases that needs something to push him one way or the other.

I would love to hear someone attempt a cogent argument that Trevor Hoffman of all people is a Hall of Famer and Pedro Martinez isn't. It can't be done. Pedro has exactly one possible strike against him, and it works even more strongly against Hoffman. Please note this isn't a shot directed at anyone other than the BBWAA, because at this point I have so little faith in them that I expect Hoffman to go in first (not that I would vote for him at all).

[conor912]

I would be shocked if Posada didn't get in. Probably not first ballot, but soon thereafter. That team was so dominant for those 5-6 years that I think there'll be enough of a cry to push him in.

[t206blogcom]

Griffey Jr within the first 3 times being on the ballot. The rest - no way.

[packs]

Originally Posted by rats60

So you think Jack Morris belongs in the hof? I don't think so. Being the best at your position over a period of time doesn't make you a hofer. Posada isn't even the best of his era. Piazza for the early part of his career, Joe Mauer for the later part.

I know it's never been proven per se but Piazza is long suspected of PEDs.

Mauer had a good season in 2008 and a great one in 2009, and then played 82 games in 2011, when Posada retired.

It is not the same as Jack Morris. Posada was a switch hitting catcher with power who was great for a decade plus. That's special. There are maybe 2 or 3 great catchers at any given time, who usually burn out after a few good seasons. Sure guys might have a better year, but a better career?

[bcbgcbrcb]

The difference between Vlad and Killebrew, Sheffield, etc. is a .318 career batting average.

[Robextend]

There is no way Posada is getting into the HOF with 1,600+ hits and awful defense, I don't care how important he was to the Yankees. I think the days of any position player making the HOF with those kind of numbers are over.

[HRBAKER]

I agree, fine, fine player - not a HOFer.
KG Jr. and Vlad both yes.

[Touch'EmAll]

From deep down in my heart, honestly and no joke, I think Bo should be in the HOF.

[HRBAKER]

No, no chance.

[Shoebox]

But I don't think there is anyway it could happen.

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

From deep down in my heart, honestly and no joke, I think Bo should be in the HOF.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by packs

Posada was by far the best of his entire era. Pudge and Piazza were cheating. No one was better.

Mauer had a good season in 2008 and a great one in 2009, and then played 82 games in 2011, when Posada retired.

So Posada plays steady, powerful baseball as a regular for 14 years but his entire era is eclipsed by Mauer's two good (one special) seasons?

Also we're talking about the best clean catcher in the league over a career. There are maybe 2 or 3 great catchers at any given time, who usually burn out after a few good seasons. It is not the same as Jack Morris.

Jorge Posada didn't even reach 1700 hits in his career. He was a vital part of some great teams but he was never considered the best at his position during his career. Ever. You can retrofit the "clean" tag however you may wish. You have no idea who did and who didn't. All we have are the stats and the memories of him as a player. He was always the fourth or fifth best hitter on his own team. Even in his best five year period he would have been considered, at best, the third best catcher in the game. His stats say he was not a Hall of Fame player. Really not close. Ted Simmons puts him to shame, and both were switch hitters. Simmons couldn't get 5% on his first ballot.

Tom C

[rats60]

Originally Posted by packs

Posada was by far the best of his entire era. Pudge and Piazza were cheating. No one was better.

Mauer had a good season in 2008 and a great one in 2009, and then played 82 games in 2011, when Posada retired.

So Posada plays steady, powerful baseball as a regular for 14 years but his entire era is eclipsed by Mauer's two good (one special) seasons?

Also we're talking about the best clean catcher in the league over a career. There are maybe 2 or 3 great catchers at any given time, who usually burn out after a few good seasons. It is not the same as Jack Morris.

Mauer becomes the only catcher in baseball history to win 3 batting titles plus wins a MVP and 3 other top 8 finishes and he only had 2 good seasons? Mauer has an OPS+ of 133, higher than every catcher currently in the Hof. He absolutely has eclipsed Posada's career. After 11 seasons he's already at 46.3 war exceeding Posada's 44.7. His 7 year peak of 38.5 not only blows Posada away, but exceeds all time greats like Mickey Cochrane, Bill Dickey, Yogi Berra and Carlton Fisk. Mauer is easily the best catcher of 2004-2013.

As far as your claim that Piazza cheated, there is no proof. His 62% in the last election suggest that most writers don't believe it and his election to the hof is likely.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by Robextend

There is no way Posada is getting into the HOF with 1,600+ hits and awful defense, I don't care how important he was to the Yankees. I think the days of any position player making the HOF with those kind of numbers are over.

Awful defense? You don't win that many rings as a team with awful defense behind the plate. Either way, I'm not saying I think he should be in, I'm saying I think he'll get in based on the team he was on. Phil Rizzuto got in strictly for being on the great Yankee teams in the 50's. His career numbers are a joke compared to the rest of the HOF. Compare his numbers to Posadas and they are freakishly similar, down to identical lifetime batting avgs. Posada even had more hits and did it from both sides of the plate. I'm not making an argument for him over anyone else, I'm just saying don't be surprised if/when he gets in.

[Greg Sonk]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

The difference between Vlad and Killebrew, Sheffield, etc. is a .318 career batting average.

I'll assume this was directed at me since I brought them up in the same breath.

Batting average is not a stat which I believe to be very useful when compared to some others that we have at our disposal. However, I understand that many voters do, and as such, consider it relevant to the discussion. Without getting into sabermetrics, the best counter to this argument would be OBP, as we need a stat that has nothing to do with power and simply frequency of "success" at the plate. Here Vlad is then only .003 better than Killebrew and .014 worse than Sheffield. I would characterize that as very comparable. I would hope that we can avoid the walks do/don't matter argument in 2015.

Over their careers, you're talking about guys with very close OBPs and WRC+ of 136, 141, and 142, respectively. Career fWar actually has Vlad at 56.5 versus Sheffield at 62.4 and Killebrew at 66.1, which I must admit mildly surprised me, as I expected Sheffield to be slightly ahead of Killebrew rather than the reverse. Vlad's career was 6 years shorter than the other two, and all had roughly 3-4 elite (6+ fWAR) years.

I don't see a huge difference there at all.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Trevor Hoffman? Oh please no. And if Jorge Posada gets more than 5% of the vote Ted Simmons should go apeshit on the BBWAA.

Tom C

Ok, what's wrong with Hoffman? 600 saves, a sub 3 ERA, more than a K an inning. The guy was not only a great closer with one of the highest save conversion percentages, he is an also an incredible humble role model. No, he shouldn't get in because he's a great role model but I tell you what, he's cut from the same type of cloth as Jeter, Mariano, Tony Gwynn and a few other incredible team players. He dominated at his position. Yeah, I'll give Mariano an edge on being the better closer but Trevor was no slouch as a closer.

[Robextend]

Originally Posted by conor912

Awful defense? You don't win that many rings as a team with awful defense behind the plate. Either way, I'm not saying I think he should be in, I'm saying I think he'll get in based on the team he was on. Phil Rizzuto got in strictly for being on the great Yankee teams in the 50's. His career numbers are a joke compared to the rest of the HOF. Compare his numbers to Posadas and they are freakishly similar, down to identical lifetime batting avgs. Posada even had more hits and did it from both sides of the plate. I'm not making an argument for him over anyone else, I'm just saying don't be surprised if/when he gets in.

Posada was a very good hitter, but they won despite his defense...he was not known as a good defensive catcher.

It is tough to compare a modern day player to one that played half a century before him. And besides that, I believe there is many on this board that believe Rizzuto is truly not a hall of famer either. And if we are comparing the success of the two...Rizzuto has had at least double the world series wins as Posada. No argument in Posada's favor has been very convincing, I really don't think he gets in. You might as well say Jason Varitek deserves to get in too...

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Fred

Ok, what's wrong with Hoffman? 600 saves, a sub 3 ERA, more than a K an inning. The guy was not only a great closer with one of the highest save conversion percentages, he is an also an incredible humble role model. No, he shouldn't get in because he's a great role model but I tell you what, he's cut from the same type of cloth as Jeter, Mariano, Tony Gwynn and a few other incredible team players. He dominated at his position. Yeah, I'll give Mariano an edge on being the better closer but Trevor was no slouch as a closer.

He's a closer. Which means he wasn't good enough to be a starter. Someone who played a total of less than 1100 innings in the major leagues does not deserve to be in the Hall. Saying he might be the second best relief pitcher of all time carries about as much weight with me as someone who was the second best pinch hitter of all time.

Tom C

[LincolnVT]

Hoping for 2016!

[bbcard1]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

He's a closer. Which means he wasn't good enough to be a starter.

Tom C

That's not at all what being a closer means. Personally, I would be all for Lee Smith and Hoffman is a no brainer.

[Robextend]

I'm really torn when it comes to closer's. Can they be considered failed starters...maybe, but they are an accepted part of the game these days and there probably should be a place for them in the HOF. With that said, I would think you need to be a completely dominant one to get in, and I am not sure there are any in that I would consider dominant.

Even Eckersley, who is regarded as a top closer of all-time...take a look at his 11 year stretch as closer as far as ERA:

1987 - 3.03
1988 - 2.35
1989 - 1.56
1990 - 0.61
1991 - 2.96
1992 - 1.91
1993 - 4.16
1994 - 4.26
1995 - 4.83
1996 - 3.30
1997 - 3.91

His dominance fizzled after 5 years or so...his starting numbers were good, but certainly not HOF worthy as maybe a Smoltz would be considered.

So why is Eckersley in the HOF?

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by bbcard1

That's not at all what being a closer means. Personally, I would be all for Lee Smith and Hoffman is a no brainer.

Of course that is what it means. Hoffman began his professional career as a closer in the minors because his pitch repertoire was not good enough to be a starter. There was a REALLY good reason why Hoffman was an 11th round draft choice. Admittedly he was great at what he was asked to do. But going max effort for 15-20 pitches at a time does not make someone a Hall Of Famer.

Tom C

[EvilKing00]

Griffey, vlad and chipper imo should get in 1st ballot

[Greg Sonk]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

He's a closer. Which means he wasn't good enough to be a starter. Someone who played a total of less than 1100 innings in the major leagues does not deserve to be in the Hall. Saying he might be the second best relief pitcher of all time carries about as much weight with me as someone who was the second best pinch hitter of all time.

Tom C

Obviously I agree with you wholeheartedly, but please don't even dignify "closer" as a position. He pitches. Relief pitchers are inherently less valuable than equivalent starters because they don't throw as many innings. There's no argument to be made to the contrary.

We have all this evidence that points to the relative value of relievers to starters and we still see media members saying Hoffman had excellent longevity while simultaneously questioning Pedro's. Can't account for willful ignorance.

[refz]

The championships will probably or eventually land Posada in the hall.

[Robextend]

Originally Posted by refz

The championships will probably or eventually land Posada in the hall.

4 champions did not do anything for Bernie Williams, who was twice the hitter Posada was.

[btcarfagno]

Actually I made a mistake. I forgot Hoffman started as an infielder in the minors, so his draft spot was due to his bat being terrible. That said, however, they did not try to make him a starter. He was a reliever because of his limited amount of major league pitches.

Tom C

[JollyElm]

Debating the relevance of closers (regardless of which side of the fence your opinion lies on) is quite similar to the lingering debates regarding the election of place kickers to the NFL Hall of Fame in Canton.

With kickers, they spend almost the entire game on the bench and come in when needed. If they make game winning kicks (Vinatieri), they are celebrated. If they go wide right (Norwood), their name is forever attached to a single moment of failure.

Closers are an integral part of the game. Ask any Mets fan when was the last time they had anyone…ANYONE…who could seal a victory for us and they will laugh at you. A team absolutely needs that guy. But when you're talking about baseball overall, it seems closers are very much denigrated for the small amount of time they are actually in the game. As others have said, gone are the days of the Gossage, Smith, Sutter 'long saves.' Now it seems the most time a closer is in the game is a single inning. It's ridiculous how that aspect of the game has changed so much and it (along with other things people have said in this thread) will always work against them being enshrined.

[dgo71]

Originally Posted by Robextend

4 champions did not do anything for Bernie Williams, who was twice the hitter Posada was.

Exactly. The cronyism of the old veterans committee is thankfully a thing of the past. Posada the player is the one going up for consideration, not the 1998 Yankees as a team. No way is he a HOFer.

[kailes2872]

Originally Posted by sycks22

I know we're talking about future HOF ballots, but it's amazing how dominate Pedro was for a 7-8 span in the middle of his career. From '97 - '03 he led the league in ERA 5 years with era's of 2.89 and an injury plagued year of 2.39 as his other years. Averaged over 250k's and this is all in the AL without the pitcher hitting and obvious steroid era. This is probably the most dominate a pitcher has been for a 7 year span in the last 50 years. He also won 3 Cy Young's and came in 2nd two more times. 2.20 Era for this 7 years, amazing

If Pedro developed arthritis and retired after the '04 season, we would be talking about him like Koufax.

P.S. - I am not saying that Griffey was on any performance enhancers, I just find it a bit odd how a gangly guy hit for so much power early in his career and then broke down the last half. I don't know what the indicators are, however, in this world where we are quick to declare if someone was a user and someone else was not a user, our crowd sourced justice is quick to declare him innocent (which he very well may be) and so many others that might have had acne on their back, or hit home runs despite a small stature are quickly declared guilty. I hate this time of year because Bond and Clemens were HOFers before they were ever suspected of using.

[dgo71]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Actually I made a mistake. I forgot Hoffman started as an infielder in the minors, so his draft spot was due to his bat being terrible. That said, however, they did not try to make him a starter. He was a reliever because of his limited amount of major league pitches.

Tom C

One third of 1st Round picks never get even a day in the big leagues. Meanwhile, Piazza was selected in a round that doesn't even exist anymore. I think draft position is the weakest barometer you could have selected to make a case against, or for, a player's HOF worthiness.

The front office decided to groom Hoffman as a closer because they recognized the need to have an effective closer at the big league level and he had a howitzer for an arm. That's not at all to say he could not have started had the organization chosen to go that way. We'll of course never know, but many quality big league starters were two-pitch guys in the low minors. That's why the minor leagues exist, to develop players.

[eastonfalcon19]

1st Ballot upcoming years- Griffey, C.Jones, Big Unit, Pedro, Vlad, Smoltz, Hoffman (should get in because his change-up was so filthy), Thome.

I can see Piazza and Biggio getting in as well. Clemens deserves to get in even though he was accused of PEDs.

Where does Omar Vizquel fit in with the Hall? Do you think he has a shot at getting in?