Scaring Up 1914 Cracker Jacks

[sniffy5]

Several posts revolving around various aspects of the 1914 CJ set have been put forth in the last few months, as a result of the current popularity of the set. Prices realized have doubled and tripled from a year ago. I am wondering if people feel that a lot of 1914's have come out of the woodwork for public sale as a result, or if folks feel very few have emerged from dealers and casual 1914 collectors.

[GregMitch34]

As I've said (guessed) before, I am doubting there are a great many mid- or high-grade cards yet to be graded and/or sold. But we'll see. Equally interesting is: once this craze is over, where will the prices stick, or fall? I've seen some dumb, and smart, buying going on (I tried to help with my combined pop report). Also, with some switching to 1915s, those prices have risen also, but how real is that?

[wolterse]

I have talked to a few auction houses in the past month that have taken on large consignments of 14s, which will be featured in upcoming summer and fall auctions.

I believe we will see more supply hitting the market which should hopefully soften the prices so set collectors can continue to build at reasonable prices ... Here's to hoping.

[rainier2004]

Originally Posted by GregMitch34

As I've said (guessed) before, I am doubting there are a great many mid- or high-grade cards yet to be graded and/or sold. But we'll see. Equally interesting is: once this craze is over, where will the prices stick, or fall? I've seen some dumb, and smart, buying going on (I tried to help with my combined pop report). Also, with some switching to 1915s, those prices have risen also, but how real is that?

1915 prices started rising early in 2013 after a dip at the end of 2012. Commons started going much higher, you would never seen a tpg 2 go for $100+ 18 months ago. I have watched both sets for nearly the last 5 years with great interest and rarely both sets are moving in the same direction and 1914s were very quiet last year.

[GregMitch34]

I still suspect that the 14s that will come on market are not "new" but owners trying to tap into trend. Several months ago there was a surge in prices for the somewhat scarce t206 backs--you know, Tolstoi, EPDG etc.--and many of the auction prices suddenly had tons of them, naturally. Then prices collapsed and no one much cares now. Until the next time.

[sniffy5]

Nothing would please me more than to see tons of 1914 CJ's in a 4 or better flood the market. To re-emphasize Greg's point, upcoming auctions may simply be filled with great 1914's, but maybe not 4's and 5's new to the hobby. In fact, a month or two ago, after much conjecture on the part of board members that very many folks theorized that a great many decent 1914's were out there, ungraded, Greg asked for people to post some. No one posted the elusive 4's and 5's....

[wolterse]

There are (25) 1914 CJs that have a total SGC & PSA pop of 9 or below in vg-ex or better.

There will always be slim pickings - no matter how hot or cold the market - for the true rarities in vg-ex or better.

[sniffy5]

Yeah, I sort of agree with that. Nothing has proven otherwise. And for sure, now is the time to sell 1914's. If anyone wanted to make a massive profit, the past three months would be the time. I'm sorely tempted myself.

[wolterse]

I hope you're right Tom. It would be great to see some of the real rarities dusted off and auctioned in the near future.

I think many of these cards, however, reside in complete 14 CJ collections that will be broken down and sold only in rare circumstances (ex. Collector passing away and family sells). My guess is there are at least 10 complete sets out there. 4-5 of these are technically high grade in my opinion.

It has taken lots of time and dough for those that possess many of these high grade rarities to build their complete sets. For them, it's about the set, not capitalizing on a hot or cold market. Frankly, money is likely not an object to them.

I tend to doubt that many of these high grade rarities are in advanced and diverse collections. They were scooped up years ago and locked away with set collectors.

We will see some, but it will be very few and far between.

I hope I am proven wrong in the near future!

[GregMitch34]

Tom, you are welcome to try me with any of those cards you want to unload!

[sniffy5]

I see that eBay has a Bush Psa 6 for auction. That card is commanding a premium already. 1914 CJ and Psa 6 does not often go together. Tough, tough card in amazing condition. Like I said, great time to sell. Let's see some more!!