The Next 100K Card

[dstraate]

Reading other member's posts about "the one that got away" piqued my interest. Since I grew up in a time that produced no (read:NO) cards that will ever be worth 100K, I'd like to know what you all think will be the cards to reach the 100K plateau in the next 15 years.

Larry set the parameters as a card that is significant, rare, and in great condition. I don't really have anything to add, not even a guess as to which card it may be, but I wanted to learn a bit more about the hidden gems in our hobby.

[deadballera]

didn't a Old Judge from the California League sell for $100K last year ?

[Blunder19]

I think 15 years from now the t206 Plank will be consistently going for 80K-100K

just my 2 cents
Jamie

[AndyG09]

Originally Posted by deadballera

didn't a Old Judge from the California League sell for $100K last year ?

http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/auction/2010/1.html

Best,

Andy

[Leon]

Before the several recent ones on the market, and the way they have escalated in price, I almost would have thought the 1869 Peck and Snyder trade card could be one. It still could be but I think it will take quite a bit longer now, if ever. Of course I am biased and have a vested interest...but I really have thought it was one that could get there due to its iconic status in the hobby. Nice subject for a thread.....also, maybe a very high grade '51 Mantle might get there (if it hasn't already).

(no posts then 4 posts in 4 consecutive minutes )

[bbcard1]

I would agree with Plank. I have always thought it was the toughest of the big three. I think there will be outliers from time to time, but I don't think it will mean anything really.

[mintacular]

Do you think rare backs could ever be part of this discussion or are back collectors too much of a niche crowd?

[philliesphan]

Originally Posted by mintacular

Do you think rare backs could ever be part of this discussion or are back collectors too much of a niche crowd?

I don't see any chance for rare backs to ever approach such levels. Even the Ty Cobb back (which likely isn't even a T206...) has only recently breached those levels, and there is a finite number of them known.

Rare backs will always have a following -- but they will never be $100K cards. Even the hardest of the hard -- Uzit, Drum, BL 460, etc. are still found regularly, and if they breached $10K on a regular basis, I am sure that you would see many coming out of the wordwork.

There is an algorithm, I'm sure, that keeps prices of rare back in relative check with the rest of set. Sure, I absolutely love my T206 rare backs, but even with the humble collection I have, I'm sure it would go a long way to purchasing an entire T206 set (less the Big 4). There is a ratio there that I think will always stay in relative balance.

[glchen]

Is the T206 Doyle (NY Nat'l) already past 100K? If not, I think this card will hit the mark because it's so rare. I also think the T210 Jackson will also go past 100K if it hasn't already.

[CMIZ5290]

Didn't the only psa 10 1953 topps mantle bring almost $300k?

[CMIZ5290]

If anyone was ever lucky enough to get a t206 green cobb in a psa 9 holder, you certainly would have a 6 figure card!

[Leon]

Originally Posted by glchen

Is the T206 Doyle (NY Nat'l) already past 100K? If not, I think this card will hit the mark because it's so rare. I also think the T210 Jackson will also go past 100K if it hasn't already.

Anything above a 1 on either of these cards is already past 100k, and many 1's will be.....The Doyle is probably almost twice that already....(depending on the aesthetics)

[scottglevy]

Decent cobbs (5s or better) with super rare backs (Uzit, Drum, BL 460 and of course Ty Cobb) have a shot.

[PolarBear]

1914 CJ Matty.

[cozmokramer]

There were actually 2 california league OJs that sold for over 100K... the one posted above and then there was a private transaction for another at $105K

[mrvster]

nice topic....

excuse my bias, but unique,"one-of-a-kinds" or relatively few, like t206 printers scraps/proofs/om browns, pre-production....

Leon, your Peck and Snyder might not be the one, but what about that rosetta stone you have?

no matter how many planks, wagners, how many triple stamped/ghosted / brown om out there?? only Leon


my 2 cents

Johnny

[Leon]

Originally Posted by mrvster

nice topic....

excuse my bias, but unique,"one-of-a-kinds" or relatively few, like t206 printers scraps/proofs/om browns, pre-production....

Leon, your Peck and Snyder might not be the one, but what about that rosetta stone you have?

no matter how many planks, wagners, how many triple stamped/ghosted / brown om out there?? only Leon


my 2 cents

Johnny

Hey Johnny
If I ever do sell it I would be glad to just get back what I paid for it..which was all the money, imo. I am bringing it to the show this weekend, along with some other of my collection for display.....hope to see a lot of board members there...regards

[mrvster]

Leon,

I know Wonka has asked, but may i have second dibs????????????

i wish i could make the show.....



Peace

Johnny

[mark evans]

I'll go out on an unpopular limb and suggest that, due to economic and other considerations, there will be few, if any, new cards (currently known to exist in the hobby) that will break the $100k plateau in the forseeable future.

[glchen]

How about a W600 Cobb in better condition than the one currently in the Goodwin auction?

[BobbyVCP]

A few of the cards already mentioned have already gone over the $100K mark here is a small list which is in out top 25 ends at $133K

PSA 8 Wagner $2.8 mil
1914 Baltimore News Orioles Ruth, Pitcher #9 SGC 40 $517,000
1952 Topps Mickey Mantle #311 PSA 9 $282,588
1933 Goudey Lou Gehrig #92 PSA 10 $274,950
1933 Goudey Lou Gehrig #92 PSA 10 $274,950
1910 Standard Caramel Wagner PSA 9 $218,550
1914 Boston Garter (Color) Joe Jackson #6 SGC 70 $204,000
1909-11 White Borders Plank, Phila. Amer. #395 PSA 6 $188,000
1951 Bowman Mickey Mantle #253 SGC 96 $162,412
1938 Goudey JOE DI MAGGIO, Yankees #250 SGC 96 $150,806
1933 Goudey Napoleon (Larry) Lajoie #106 PSA 9 $144,352
1887 Kalamazoo Bats John Ward #58 SGC 50 $141,000
1916 Sporting News & Blank Babe Ruth #151 PSA 8 $140,666
1903 Breisch-Williams (Type 1) Wagner SGC 40 $133,933

[wonkaticket]

Leon if the Matty White Cap proof will be with you I think you need to be concerned about an Ocean's 11 style type heist with Dan C, Jim B and myself....although none of us are attractive enough to be Clooney or Sinatra.

[e107collector]

SGC 98 1914 CJ Joe Jackson

If this card came to market, easily over $100,000

Tony

[ls7plus]

Within the next 15 years, I would bet on even the 1907 W600 Cobb in the PSA 1 (Mk) condition as it appears in the current Goodwin auction--it's almost certainly Cobb's toughest rookie, and possibly rarer than the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth (it would also be very interesting to know just how many of the 1907 Dietsche Fielding Position Cobbs are lurking out there ungraded--if not many at all, then an example like I believe Jeff has--PSA 5(?), great eye appeal--would have a shot to explode like the T210 Jackson did. Post cards are just beginning to get their due as true baseball cards, and PSA has graded just 5 of these, compared to six of the T210 Old Mill Jacksons). The W600 Cobb is currently approaching $25,000 (with buyer's premium factored in). Even if it only held that, it would only have to double twice in the next 15 years to get to $100K. That's only 9.6% compounded annually--top shelf collectibles often do 12-15% or better. For the same mathematical reasons, the 1911 T5 Pinkerton Joe Jackson (currently approaching $30K with buyer's premium in the Goodwin auction) could easily get there within that time.

Other prime candidates would include the E107 Breisch Williams Mathewson and Young (believe Wagner's there already, and I think Young has already topped $60K). Obviously, some condition rarities of upper echelon hall-of-famers from the T206, Cracker Jack and Goudey sets that haven't made it yet could easily do so (but as I've posted before, I personally am very leery of these, because we may not know how far ahead the card doctors are of the graders until it's too late--make mine rare in any grade!).

I also personally like rare variations, such as top T206 stars in nice condition, with excellent eye appeal, with rare backs, and others. A PSA 4 T206 Red Portrait Cobb with rare Hindu back sold for $38,187 in 2009. That card need only appreciate at a rate of just 6.3% compounded annually to meet the magic mark in 15 years. Proof cards of major hall-of-famers may also make a nice market for themselves in the future, just as patterns did in coins. Collectors like 'em RARE!

In addition, some of the rarer Ruths might well make the cut, such as the 1933 Buttercream Babe, as well as other ultra rare Ruths (Oops--the Butter Cream Babe has sold for $111, 625 in a 2008 REA auction already--but you see my point--rarity( 2 known) + significance (it's the Babe) = big $$$).

Good thread--would be nice to dig this one up 15 years from now.

Larry

[glchen]

The E107 Mathewson SGC 30/2 already hit 119.5K in the Aug 2010 Heritage auction.

[Bilko G]

Steven Strasburg Superfractor

[dstraate]

Originally Posted by Bilko G

Steven Strasburg Superfractor

puke. I had a healty buzz going on reading about all of these cards and you went and harshed my mellow.

[CMIZ5290]

Tony, if some lucky collector was to ever get an sgc 98 1914 cracker jack joe jackson, you might have a card that brings closer to 7 figures than 6.

[E93]

The last two Cobb/Cobb backs went for over 100k.
JimB

[E93]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Tony, if some lucky collector was to ever get an sgc 98 1914 cracker jack joe jackson, you might have a card that brings closer to 7 figures than 6.

One fortunate collector did get one. He sadly passed away last year. His family seems to be holding his collection.
JimB

[CMIZ5290]

Wow! There is no telling what the card would bring at a major auction house! My bet is $500k plus.

[fkw]

If these were ever to sell...

1893 Just So Cy Young
1909 Cabanas Pete Hill
1910 Punch Pete Hill (EX or better w/backing, if one exists)


I wouldnt count PSA-10 hype BS (Condition rarity/registry hype overpay) as a card this is really worth $100K, I know many Topps cards have sold for over $100K, or close, but the only one I would say is in the club is the 1952 Mantle.

others...
1933 R328 US Caramel Lindy Lindstrom
and maybe a mid to high grade T215 Pirate or T214 Ty Cobb if one exists



PS. Sometimes a card is too rare.... unique cards or cards only known with only a couple examples need to be part of a fairly popular set to get the demand up enough for bidding wars to take it up that high IMO

ie Leon's T231 Baker is the rarest type card in the world (w/ACC#) but wouldnt even come close to $100K

[E93]

There are a lot of 19th century rarities that either have sold at that level privately or would if offered. Some would be well into six figures or closer to seven like the Just So Cy Young or N172 Anson in uniform. Not quite at the same level as those, but I think N167 HoFs will be at the six figure level before too long.
JimB

[ChiefBenderForever]

Originally Posted by fkw

I wouldnt count PSA-10 hype BS (Condition rarity/registry hype overpay) as a card this is really worth $100K, I know many Topps cards have sold for over $100K, or close, but the only one I would say is in the club is the 1952 Mantle.

I agree high grade cards that can be had for under 10k in lower examples shouldn't count, and that does include Mantle. Not sure what the cut off is maybe a grade of 4 or 5 to be fair, but if a grade of 4 or 5 isn't even close to 100k then it isn't a 6 figure card even though the high grades are. Just my opinion.

[ls7plus]

Thanks, Gary--I missed the Mathewson's sale. See, they're creeping up on us already!

Larry

[brian1961]

'Tis a grand topic to kick around, even if I'm late to the kicking. The next card to reach a value of one hundred thousand dollars, whatever it finally is, will have to be something very special. Many of the replies have been pre-WWII, natch. I shall take a contrarian view, and select a postwar gem.

I believe the next 100K card should be one currently offered in Robert Edward Auctions. It is lot #853, the 1954 Stahl-Meyer Franks Mickey Mantle in PSA 7 NEAR MINT. That card has enough compelling qualities to easily rate six figures. In fact, I believe it is worth well-ascending six figures, but I doubt at this moment there will be many who would take me seriously. I cannot blame them. If they only knew what I know about that card, they would vehemently agree with me.

Most collectors view the ultimate Mickey Mantle card as the 1952 Topps. I shall not say one derogatory thing about that fabulous card. It is indeed a dream card for many. However, here's the thing: when you ask what is going to be the next 100K, most of us are not going to be in the thin crowd that would go bonkers bidding that kind of money. A collector with that kind of dough to "blow" likely ALREADY has a nice '52 Topps Mick in his collection. What almost all of the high-end collectors do not own is a high-grade Stahl-Meyer Franks Mickey Mantle, a very rare bird indeed.

Several years ago, I asked that grand ol' dealer, David Festberg, about the Stahl-Meyers. He replied, "oh, they're around." What he did not say was that they are around PSA/SGC Poor with a qualifier, Poor, or Fair. It is pretty hard to work up a lot of excitement for a card that usually comes pretty creased, stained on one or even both sides, and has a factory date code stamped on the front of the card, hopefully not on the player's face. You can find several of them on eBay, where they have sat listed for months on end. Where the highly regarded 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle has been written about and portrayed in the media many dozens of times, the Stahl-Meyers have not been featured even once in a hobby periodical.

It took me several years, but I wrote a three-part feature article on a trio of tough Mantles for Sports Collectors Digest. I submitted it in January of 2009. They seemed to like it. The first segment, on a 1962 JELL-O unfolded box of Mantle, appeared in SCD's National issue. The second covered the very elegant 1960 Post Cereal Mantle card that looks like an early 1900s cabinet, and appeared in SCD's first issue of 2010. The third segment was on the 1954 Stahl-Meyer Franks Mickey Mantle. Albeitly, it was a long article, but I put a lot of worthwhile information and fun into it. For some reason, it never ran while T. S. O'Connell was the editor. I like T. S. though; I'm sure he had his reasons.

As beautiful as the Stahl-Meyers are, however, one might wonder why they have not been trumpeted. I found many did not know much about them. Even more revealing, those who did know did not wish to discuss what they knew. Most of these people were other collectors. Take a moment or two and reflect upon why they wished to remained closed mouth about them.

Then again, how often has the 1914 Baltimore News cards been written about? It was not even "discovered" until about the mid-1980s. Most collectors only care about one of Jack Dunn's babes anyway, a youngster named George Ruth. That Ruth has already reached, what was it, 517K? To be sure, those cards are by no means mainstream. A beautiful pre-war regional.

There are numerous arguments (discussions) sometimes over mainstream versus regionals. They're both important, of course. When it comes to values, sometimes I wonder if a lot of people would not know a diamond if they held it in their hand. But that statement smacks of "you must collect as I collect", and that is not what I am trying to project at all.

I really do not want to cause a disturbance here, but allow me to use another collectible hobby to illustrate. Most car nuts dream of having a beautifully restored 55 or 57 Chevy or a late 60s Camaro. Yet at a major auction such as Barratt-Jackson, when an all-American dream machine concept car gets rolled to the platform, the crowd begins to gush, "look at that car", "what IS that?!", "I've only seen a picture of that once in a book or magazine". Then a small group of newer bidders start to push the bid to one million, then 2, 2.5, and 3 million dollars and more! It can get just as wild for a vintage Ferrari or Alfa-Romeo, particularly if it was raced by a legendary driver, or won a great race.

Let's go back to The Great Depression for a moment. One of the cars that still brings high dollars are the exotic Duesenbergs. I have been to the wonderful Auburn-Cord-Duesenberg Museum in Auburn, Indiana. They have several key examples of Duesenberg's marvelous craftsmanship. Beside each car is a placard with the date and model of the car, as well as the original price. You would be amazed at the price Duesenberg charged for some of its exotic masterpieces, anywhere from twelve to a little over fifteen thousand dollars! During the 1933 World's Fair in Chicago, at the same time as the first baseball All-Star game, the featured exhibit at the car pavillion was a Duesenberg with a body by Rollston. It was called the Rollston Twenty Grand. To think during this wretched horrible time in our country's history, several hundred people were able to and did spend 12K to 20K for a car, when the typical sedan ran about a grand, give or take a few hundred. Though the Depression eventually took down the company, some of the greatest cars in our country's history were built during some of the roughest years. None of these were mainstream cars. Maybe that's a reason why a Duesenberg was and still is so highly sought.

To the point, mainstream trading cards are like Fords, Chevys, and Chryslers. Topps test issues and rare regionals are like Duesenbergs, one-of-one concept cars, and very rare racing Ferraris. Of course, Ferraris and Duesenbergs have been written about since the day they were made. Regionals and test issues are tough to research and write about, especially when most people will not divulge what they know.

I must backpeddle a bit. By and large, the rare regionals are undervalued, but some have hit some pretty high numbers already. Let me just end where I began and say that the next card to hit one hundred thousand dollars should be that fabulous 1954 Stahl-Meyer Franks Mickey Mantle in PSA 7. What a display piece. What a crowd stopper. What a conversation piece.

I know I could be accused of having a genuine conflict of interest since I do own one of those Mantles. Mine is very, very nice. It is also three full grades below this one. At least I know what I am talking about, and I think I've owned mine longer than the consignor of the one in REA. They are indeed fascinating cards. Wish I could fight to upgrade mine, but I'm quite content with the one I have. Mine moves me very deeply every time I look at it. No doubt it was tough for the consignor to part with that card.

More than enough said. Sorry. Brian Powell

[ls7plus]

Very, very thoughtful, interesting post, Brian. I do believe time will ultimately prove you're right on items like truly rare and significant regionals (after all, the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth and MANY of the M101 Ruth rookies--with various, non-blank backs--are regionals), and some of the better, rarer Topps test issues. Some key unique or near-so and significant Topps proofs might get there too! From a dollar standpoint, we might not want to be so narrow-minded as to limit our considerations to pre-war cards.

Plus I think I know how you feel about your Mantle--I probably feel the same way about my raw, NMt '53-'55 Dormand, bat on shoulder Mantle (just a gorgeous card, and a tough one in high-grade), and '55 Exhibit Postcard Back SGC EX+ Mantle (don't think there are many of these out there, in any grade).

Best of luck in your collecting,

Larry

[drdduet]

My guess is the subject's last name will be Ruth, and the card will be a pre-1930 issue. The Sporting News Ruth, while already having sold >100K, will more than likely routinely sell in the six figures in excellent or better condition. Other Ruth's like Honey Boy, Collins-McCarthey, etc will likely get there as well--just need to see a few more sales of these in decent condition to get to that level. Any good looking period Ruth will appreciate like gold and/or silver.

[ls7plus]

'23 Lections Ruth or Hornsby? Extremely rare, and not likely to change in that respect, given their origin. Condition is generally a big drawback, although that hasn't held the 1914 Baltimore News Babe or W600 Georgia Peach back (yes, I know these are first cards!). And it seems like I saw a high grade Hornsby out there relatively recently.

Thoughts?

Larry

[g_vezina_c55]

Originally Posted by Blunder19

I think 15 years from now the t206 Plank will be consistently going for 80K-100K

just my 2 cents
Jamie

i hope i hope

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

A few of the cards already mentioned have already gone over the $100K mark here is a small list which is in out top 25 ends at $133K

PSA 8 Wagner $2.8 mil
1914 Baltimore News Orioles Ruth, Pitcher #9 SGC 40 $517,000
1952 Topps Mickey Mantle #311 PSA 9 $282,588
1933 Goudey Lou Gehrig #92 PSA 10 $274,950
1933 Goudey Lou Gehrig #92 PSA 10 $274,950
1910 Standard Caramel Wagner PSA 9 $218,550
1914 Boston Garter (Color) Joe Jackson #6 SGC 70 $204,000
1909-11 White Borders Plank, Phila. Amer. #395 PSA 6 $188,000
1951 Bowman Mickey Mantle #253 SGC 96 $162,412
1938 Goudey JOE DI MAGGIO, Yankees #250 SGC 96 $150,806
1933 Goudey Napoleon (Larry) Lajoie #106 PSA 9 $144,352
1887 Kalamazoo Bats John Ward #58 SGC 50 $141,000
1916 Sporting News & Blank Babe Ruth #151 PSA 8 $140,666
1903 Breisch-Williams (Type 1) Wagner SGC 40 $133,933

FYI, an M101-5 PSA 7 Ruth last sold for $200K and REA just sold a PSA 6 for $142K!

[benjulmag]

Interesting thread.

Given the number of cards that have passsed the 100k threshhold, an interesting question is what card will be next to cross the $1 million threshhold. Other than the T206 Wagner, has any other card done it?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Interesting thread.

Given the number of cards that have passsed the 100k threshhold, an interesting question is what card will be next to cross the $1 million threshhold. Other than the T206 Wagner, has any other card done it?

I don't think one has crossed that mark yet Corey, at least that I am aware of. I would venture to guess the next, other than Wags to do it, could be an Anson in uniform if one came out or more likely, if a PSA 10 1952 Mantle came out.

[ullmandds]

I don't believe the lections ruth will ever...ever be considered a top tier card...warranting anywhere near 100K...no way!!!!

[travrosty]

M. fogel bought his 10 Mantle 52 topps many years ago for 150,000 or so and many people thought he was crazy because prices hadn't graduated that high yet, but he estimates it is a 2 million dollar plus card now. i guess there are only two of them in existance? he may be right with his estimate, but its just plain lunacy.

[g_vezina_c55]

Originally Posted by Leon

I don't think one has crossed that mark yet Corey, at least that I am aware of. I would venture to guess the next, other than Wags to do it, could be an Anson in uniform if one came out or more likely, if a PSA 10 1952 Mantle came out.

The PSA 8 Plank can perhaps broke the 1M line ?

[barrysloate]

How many of Dmitri Young's PSA 10 rookie cards passed the 100K threshhold?

[glchen]

With the way the Collins McCarthy Ruth is going in the current Legendary auction, I think a higher grade Boston Store Ruth can probably break 100K.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by glchen

With the way the Collins McCarthy Ruth is going in the current Legendary auction, I think a higher grade Boston Store Ruth can probably break 100K.

Agreed! The Boston Store Ruth is one of the most formidable Babe Ruth cards. Considering how his rookie card has escalated, who knows how high the much scarcer 2nd year Boston Store might reach.

[wolfdogg]

Originally Posted by glchen

Is the T206 Doyle (NY Nat'l) already past 100K? If not, I think this card will hit the mark because it's so rare. I also think the T210 Jackson will also go past 100K if it hasn't already.

Didn't a PSA 2 or 3 Jackson go for around 200K? The Doyle is already there