10K for a Young portrait in a 5

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bounce

NOOOOOooooooo! Not you, too, Hotchkiss?!?!?!

Was bidding on a Lajoie Portrait PSA 4 last night, I'm sure many people saw it. Ended at $1,325. Prior sale to that was REA at $1,600.

This was a $600 card earlier this year, and the year before that, and the year before that...

With all the talk of "Investment", do we really believe that all of a sudden, and it has been pretty much all of the sudden in the last handful of months, that there's a new group of "investors" with seemingly endless bankrolls that are happily forking over double/triple the prior sales prices for equivalent (and in many cases THE EXACT SAME) cards?

Kind of like the Lajoie, I guess we all just had it wrong for years and all of sudden they've got it right? They either put in ZERO price research (highly unlikely), or they just don't care (totally unlikely).

This has all the signs of 2016 again. That run up wasn't just the blue chip 50s/60s RCs either, it went well beyond that.

I would simply encourage everyone to be very careful right now.

I've spent my entire career in and around real commodity markets - energy, ags and softs, interest rates, currencies - the behavior going on right now is NOT NORMAL, and the overwhelming majority of these cards are NOT RARE ENOUGH to explain the size of the changes we're seeing.

Agreed. In my opinion, prices on cards that are far from scarce don't double, sustainably, overnight.

[Leon]

What is the end game? Do you think all (or a whole lot of) decent looking HOF T206s can be bought and their price be manipulated? I remember having a similar conversation with an authority when the Pete Rose RC manipulation happened. We laughed at the thought. There are just too many, of those and these, for there to be a sustainable manipulation, it seems. I wish I got those (manipulation) kinds of prices when I sold my first collection.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Agreed. In my opinion, prices on cards that are far from scarce don't double, sustainably, overnight.

[SAllen2556]

Originally Posted by Leon

What is the end game? Do you think all (or a whole lot of) decent looking HOF T206s can be bought and their price be manipulated? I remember having a similar conversation with an authority when the Pete Rose RC manipulation happened. We laughed at the thought. There are just too many, of those and these, for there to be a sustainable manipulation, it seems. I wish I got those (manipulation) kinds of prices when I sold my first collection.

But do you need to control the whole market or just win a couple of high profile auctions? If you win an REA or PWCC auction more people notice don't they? And thus aren't those prices are seen as more legitimate?

But on the other hand, I just read an article about young people collecting bottles of bourbon and classic cars. Is the entire art and collectibles market doing well because of low interest rates?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Leon

What is the end game? Do you think all (or a whole lot of) decent looking HOF T206s can be bought and their price be manipulated? I remember having a similar conversation with an authority when the Pete Rose RC manipulation happened. We laughed at the thought. There are just too many, of those and these, for there to be a sustainable manipulation, it seems. I wish I got those (manipulation) kinds of prices when I sold my first collection.

I don't know if it's manipulation or just people making irrational purchases, but I am just skeptical of dramatic price changes in commodity cards and have my doubts that it will last. Midgrade T206s, even attractive ones, are nothing at all new or rare.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't know if it's manipulation or just people making irrational purchases, but I am just skeptical of dramatic price changes in commodity cards and have my doubts that it will last. Midgrade T206s, even attractive ones, are nothing at all new or rare.

I fundamentally disagree with your premise that the cards seeing the greatest premiums are "commodities." The one's I've seen shoot the highest in price were extremely well centered, and in my observation, those kinds of cards are far rarer, and trade less frequently, than people give them credit for. I would agree with you 100% if we we're seeing any basic Cobb 4 take off, but the premiums paid seem very selective in my view.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I fundamentally disagree with your premise that the cards seeing the greatest premiums are "commodities." The one's I've seen shoot the highest in price were extremely well centered, and in my observation, those kinds of cards are far rarer, and trade less frequently, than people give them credit for. I would agree with you 100% if we we're seeing any basic Cobb 4 take off, but the premiums paid seem very selective in my view.

Sam, perhaps that was the wrong word, but then again it's never been that hard to find midgrade centered examples, has it? Why all of a sudden when these same cards, well centered, have been selling at much lower levels for years?

Again, we're talking about rapid and dramatic price increases, not a gradual rise over time.

[griffon512]

i have a healthy amount of skepticism, but i'm moving towards ryan's perspective on t206 iconic hof cards with strong eye appeal.

i'll put my money where my mouth is for those that are much more skeptical about recent prices than i. i'm game to buy any strong eye appeal (my discretion) mid-grade t206 portraits of iconic hofers (mathewson, johnson, cobb, young) at vcp prices going back a "reasonable" amount of time (can't cherry-pick select pwcc/memory lane sales in the last week). send me a pm if interested. i don't know if this comment belongs in this section because it is feedback to other posts but also a solicitation to buy.