10K for a Young portrait in a 5

[bounce]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Seems that the market for the high-end and/or rare versions of blue chip HOF cards is being reset. Seems this is the new normal, not just for T206. Seems card collecting is moving evermore into the realm of investment and away from being a hobby.

NOOOOOooooooo! Not you, too, Hotchkiss?!?!?!

Was bidding on a Lajoie Portrait PSA 4 last night, I'm sure many people saw it. Ended at $1,325. Prior sale to that was REA at $1,600.

This was a $600 card earlier this year, and the year before that, and the year before that...

With all the talk of "Investment", do we really believe that all of a sudden, and it has been pretty much all of the sudden in the last handful of months, that there's a new group of "investors" with seemingly endless bankrolls that are happily forking over double/triple the prior sales prices for equivalent (and in many cases THE EXACT SAME) cards?

Kind of like the Lajoie, I guess we all just had it wrong for years and all of sudden they've got it right? They either put in ZERO price research (highly unlikely), or they just don't care (totally unlikely).

This has all the signs of 2016 again. That run up wasn't just the blue chip 50s/60s RCs either, it went well beyond that.

I would simply encourage everyone to be very careful right now.

I've spent my entire career in and around real commodity markets - energy, ags and softs, interest rates, currencies - the behavior going on right now is NOT NORMAL, and the overwhelming majority of these cards are NOT RARE ENOUGH to explain the size of the changes we're seeing.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bounce

NOOOOOooooooo! Not you, too, Hotchkiss?!?!?!

Was bidding on a Lajoie Portrait PSA 4 last night, I'm sure many people saw it. Ended at $1,325. Prior sale to that was REA at $1,600.

This was a $600 card earlier this year, and the year before that, and the year before that...

With all the talk of "Investment", do we really believe that all of a sudden, and it has been pretty much all of the sudden in the last handful of months, that there's a new group of "investors" with seemingly endless bankrolls that are happily forking over double/triple the prior sales prices for equivalent (and in many cases THE EXACT SAME) cards?

Kind of like the Lajoie, I guess we all just had it wrong for years and all of sudden they've got it right? They either put in ZERO price research (highly unlikely), or they just don't care (totally unlikely).

This has all the signs of 2016 again. That run up wasn't just the blue chip 50s/60s RCs either, it went well beyond that.

I would simply encourage everyone to be very careful right now.

I've spent my entire career in and around real commodity markets - energy, ags and softs, interest rates, currencies - the behavior going on right now is NOT NORMAL, and the overwhelming majority of these cards are NOT RARE ENOUGH to explain the size of the changes we're seeing.

Agreed. In my opinion, prices on cards that are far from scarce don't double, sustainably, overnight.

[Leon]

What is the end game? Do you think all (or a whole lot of) decent looking HOF T206s can be bought and their price be manipulated? I remember having a similar conversation with an authority when the Pete Rose RC manipulation happened. We laughed at the thought. There are just too many, of those and these, for there to be a sustainable manipulation, it seems. I wish I got those (manipulation) kinds of prices when I sold my first collection.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Agreed. In my opinion, prices on cards that are far from scarce don't double, sustainably, overnight.

[SAllen2556]

Originally Posted by Leon

What is the end game? Do you think all (or a whole lot of) decent looking HOF T206s can be bought and their price be manipulated? I remember having a similar conversation with an authority when the Pete Rose RC manipulation happened. We laughed at the thought. There are just too many, of those and these, for there to be a sustainable manipulation, it seems. I wish I got those (manipulation) kinds of prices when I sold my first collection.

But do you need to control the whole market or just win a couple of high profile auctions? If you win an REA or PWCC auction more people notice don't they? And thus aren't those prices are seen as more legitimate?

But on the other hand, I just read an article about young people collecting bottles of bourbon and classic cars. Is the entire art and collectibles market doing well because of low interest rates?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Leon

What is the end game? Do you think all (or a whole lot of) decent looking HOF T206s can be bought and their price be manipulated? I remember having a similar conversation with an authority when the Pete Rose RC manipulation happened. We laughed at the thought. There are just too many, of those and these, for there to be a sustainable manipulation, it seems. I wish I got those (manipulation) kinds of prices when I sold my first collection.

I don't know if it's manipulation or just people making irrational purchases, but I am just skeptical of dramatic price changes in commodity cards and have my doubts that it will last. Midgrade T206s, even attractive ones, are nothing at all new or rare.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I don't know if it's manipulation or just people making irrational purchases, but I am just skeptical of dramatic price changes in commodity cards and have my doubts that it will last. Midgrade T206s, even attractive ones, are nothing at all new or rare.

I fundamentally disagree with your premise that the cards seeing the greatest premiums are "commodities." The one's I've seen shoot the highest in price were extremely well centered, and in my observation, those kinds of cards are far rarer, and trade less frequently, than people give them credit for. I would agree with you 100% if we we're seeing any basic Cobb 4 take off, but the premiums paid seem very selective in my view.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I fundamentally disagree with your premise that the cards seeing the greatest premiums are "commodities." The one's I've seen shoot the highest in price were extremely well centered, and in my observation, those kinds of cards are far rarer, and trade less frequently, than people give them credit for. I would agree with you 100% if we we're seeing any basic Cobb 4 take off, but the premiums paid seem very selective in my view.

Sam, perhaps that was the wrong word, but then again it's never been that hard to find midgrade centered examples, has it? Why all of a sudden when these same cards, well centered, have been selling at much lower levels for years?

Again, we're talking about rapid and dramatic price increases, not a gradual rise over time.

[griffon512]

i have a healthy amount of skepticism, but i'm moving towards ryan's perspective on t206 iconic hof cards with strong eye appeal.

i'll put my money where my mouth is for those that are much more skeptical about recent prices than i. i'm game to buy any strong eye appeal (my discretion) mid-grade t206 portraits of iconic hofers (mathewson, johnson, cobb, young) at vcp prices going back a "reasonable" amount of time (can't cherry-pick select pwcc/memory lane sales in the last week). send me a pm if interested. i don't know if this comment belongs in this section because it is feedback to other posts but also a solicitation to buy.

[Rhotchkiss]

David, I agree 100% that what is going on right now is not normal, but i do not think its devious manipulation -- its just too broad in my opinion, and its happening outside of T206 too. Things are stupid expensive, but that's where the "market" has gone, on its own. It will correct (I think/hope). But when it does, the new normal will likely be higher floor values from the old normal.

[barrysloate]

From my own experience as an auctioneer, I occasionally saw new collectors with deep pockets enter the hobby with a "kid in a candy store approach". They tried to buy everything at once, and often burned themselves out very quickly. So if a few of them have recently entered the T206 market, that could easily skew prices.

And of course there is nothing nefarious at all about it, just a bunch of wealthy people trying to amass an instant collection. Of course, I have no idea if this is the case, but it could be one explanation for rapidly escalating prices. A few of them could be competing against each other.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

From my own experience as an auctioneer, I occasionally saw new collectors with deep pockets enter the hobby with a "kid in a candy store approach". They tried to buy everything at once, and often burned themselves out very quickly. So if a few of them have recently entered the T206 market, that could easily skew prices.

And of course there is nothing nefarious at all about it, just a bunch of wealthy people trying to amass an instant collection. Of course, I have no idea if this is the case, but it could be one explanation for rapidly escalating prices. A few of them could be competing against each other.

Another possibility is the people paying the prices are investors who see an opportunity. That 5 that went for $10k is a very nice looking card, that in a different era would probably be described as Nr Mt (or even higher). The last 8 sold for $114k. If prices for 8's hold at that level, or increase, nice looking 5's don't seem too expensive at $10k. I get it that the supply of 5's is a lot greater than 8's. But then so in theory should be the demand, as there are a lot more people who can afford $10k for a card than $114k.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Another possibility is the people paying the prices are investors who see an opportunity. That 5 that went for $10k is a very nice looking card, that in a different era would probably be described as Nr Mt (or even higher). The last 8 sold for $114k. If prices for 8's hold at that level, or increase, nice looking 5's don't seem too expensive at $10k. I get it that the supply of 5's is a lot greater than 8's. But then so in theory should be the demand, as there are a lot more people who can afford $10k for a card than $114k.

Yes, compared to the 8 the 5 seems like a more than fair price. But I agree with the others that there is no logical reason for T206's to be rising at such a rapid rate. Sooner or later, something's got to give. These are very available in all grades all the time.

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Yes, compared to the 8 the 5 seems like a more than fair price. But I agree with the others that there is no logical reason for T206's to be rising at such a rapid rate. Sooner or later, something's got to give. These are very available in all grades all the time.

Not all 5's have the same aesthetic appeal. My suspicion, as others have noted, is that the supply of 5's that look like the one that went for $10k might not be as plentiful as people think. So what we might be seeing in part are collectors and/or investors FINALLY starting to shift the pendulum (a little) toward buying the card, not the holder.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Not all 5's have the same aesthetic appeal. My suspicion, as others have noted, is that the supply of 5's that look like the one that went for $10k might not be as plentiful as people think. So what we might be seeing in part are collectors and/or investors FINALLY starting to shift the pendulum (a little) toward buying the card, not the holder.

Corey, from my perspective cards that are strong for the grade have been selling for a premium for many years. Nothing new there.