If you had $750 to spend...Cobb or Jordan

[mintacular]

from a purely investment standpoint which would be a better buy: Low-Grade T206 1909-11 Red Cobb or NM-MT '86 Jordan RC?

[FrankWakefield]

I think the consensus answer here will be the opposite of the consensus answer from some modern refractor all sports board...


Neither, is my answer. Invest in mutual funds, stocks, bonds, real estate, an education, a home... not ballcards.

[Gradedcardman]

Cobb in my humble opinion, which is worth ??

[kcohen]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

Invest in mutual funds, stocks, bonds, real estate, an education, a home... not ballcards.

plastics

[ls7plus]

They'll both probably appreciate--slowly! There's just too many of each!

Larry

[Ladder7]

Buy my Jordan.













( I could use the cash to buy a Cobb)

[JamesGallo]

IMO the Jordan RC is dead and has been for some time. I see Cobbs always sell strongly, not so of Jordan. Don't get me wrong I think he was the best and still is they just can not be compared IMO. You could get a decent Cobb for that money and it would only buy you an "8" Jordan.

Cobb is better with ease, but just as much from the standpoint as your not comparing apples with apples.

James G

[3-2-count]

Easy decision. Choose the Cobby.

[thegashousegang]

I agree with James' comments - Cobb is my choice. The Jordan doesn't have much more of an upside, in my opinion.

[vintagecpa]

Out of default, I would choose the Cobb over the Jordan, but I don't see a huge upside. I believe the Jordan will ultimately drop in value given the sheer numbers that exist. I don't see as many new collectors driving up the price of the Jordan. I do still see newer collectors still wanting to own a Cobb.

[Big Ben]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

I think the consensus answer here will be the opposite of the consensus answer from some modern refractor all sports board...


Neither, is my answer. Invest in mutual funds, stocks, bonds, real estate, an education, a home... not ballcards.

In terms of pure investments, I very much agree with you.

However, in terms of a hobby as an investment I would pick the Cobb over the Jordan rookie. That being said, I was in a similar situation last year and very much looked at Cobb cards. However at that price range for a graded card, I chose a T206 Matthewson card as I could get a better quality card for the money. If I had that type of money today to put into my collecting hobby, I would probably go after an Old Judge card.
Best of luck with your decision.

[yanksfan09]

Originally Posted by vintagecpa

Out of default, I would choose the Cobb over the Jordan, but I don't see a huge upside. I believe the Jordan will ultimately drop in value given the sheer numbers that exist. I don't see as many new collectors driving up the price of the Jordan. I do still see newer collectors still wanting to own a Cobb.

I agree with the last post. I'd add that it probably may depend on the long term future popularity of each sport. It's hard to say which sports will be the most popular in 10, 20, 30 or more years. Cultural and demographic changes will occur. Not all, but many baseball fans are older and basketball may or may not be more popular with the youngest generation. Baseball is also more regional but is extremely popular in these regions and overall I think the sport is in great shape.

Neither card is rare but I'd guess there must be less Cobbs around. Overall, I think in the long term, pre war will hold its value or appreciate. I don't think the same can be said of any modern cards from the 70's, 80's -present. They just produced too many and everyone kept them mint and hoarded them as investments. too much supply with fading demand. Possibly today's card companies have increased pre-war demand by creating all the new vintage-looking sets as well.

I'd say to go with whatever card, player, sport you personally like the most. Then even if either lost a bit of value, you'd still have a card you liked.

I'd go Ty Cobb.

[dstraate]

Cover both bases. Get a Cobb in 2 or better and spend the rest getting a high grade Oscar Robertson Rookie

[DanP]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

I think the consensus answer here will be the opposite of the consensus answer from some modern refractor all sports board...


Neither, is my answer. Invest in mutual funds, stocks, bonds, real estate, an education, a home... not ballcards.

Frank, I understand what you are saying and for the most part agree with you. However, I sold my business in 1997. I wish I bought a Wagner T206, Babe Ruth RC, etc. rather than investing in mutual funds, stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. I guess if I picked out the few stocks that have done well since 1997 (i.e. Apple) I'd feel differently. However, I think it's a lot easier to pick out which cards will do well over time then it is a stock!!

[iwantitiwinit]

No question COBB. When in doubt buy vintage especially when we are talking comparable level of players. In my opinion, buying anything post 1970 is a losing proposition, just too much of it around and its too easily obtainable. Just look at the decline in Yount, Brett, even some pre-1970 cards like Seaver rookies. I buy only t206's and still have no true faith that they will hold thier value. Eventually there is a chance that everything will simply be looked at as a piece of cardboard.

[mintacular]

The reason I brought this up is to see if anyone would go with Jordan and still a "no". The current market reflects that each one is currently worth around $750 but I guess most folks feel the full population bubble still has not popped yet on Jordan Rcs. I did a search and there seem to be around 20+ Cobbs for sale right now and 30+ Jordans so supply is not so far apart at least from this sample. It was my undertstanding that the basketball set was not mass-produced and therefore a flooding of Jordan RCs in the marketplace is not likely. Additionally, I wonder if in 10, 20, 30 years Jordan will holder a stronger "iconic" status and Cobb not nearly as much. It would be interesting to see if Mantle, Ruth, Clemente could become the "classic" card for middle-age folks to collect in terms of vintage and whether or not Cobb would lose some popularity in this regard....

[autograf]

There have to be WAY more Jordan's out there in multiples to the sum of all (4) Cobbs.........I bought boxes of 1986 Fleer BKB for $12/box in the day........each box would make (3) complete sets of cards and (3) complete sets of stickers with a few leftovers. Sold the sets with stickers for $8.00 each and doubled my money. But....if I'd kept a few boxes, I'd have done better, huh? While I don't think they were produced in 1988 Donruss Baseball numbers, they are in no terms scarce....I'd take the Cobb, any Cobb, any day. Still interesting to see all the responses..............

[drdduet]

derrick rose sp authentic rookie

[ChiefBenderForever]

Neither, T206 are going for top dollar now even if down a little bit but have to wonder when or if they will go up as there is never a shortage so if you get a Red Cobb it may not move at all. If you really want to get a red Cobb take your time and get the nicest one you can for the lowest price and then it should be worth more than what you paid. Jordan is a sweet card and sometimes a nice 8 or 9 go for well below current value so again if you can get one at a low price can't really lose.

[alanu]

I personally would rather have the Cobb, but the Jordan will get relatively more "vintage" over the next 25 years.... the cobb is 100 years old now and will be 125 years old in 25 years, while the jordan is 25 years old now and will be 50 years old in 25 years.....

I'm not sure what that argument means, but when I was writing it I thought I meant something

[Touch'EmAll]

Answer to the question: Cobb

But, for the sake of conversation, how about:

PSA 9 late career Aaron or Mays
Or a mid career Nolan Ryan PSA 9
Or a 1953 Topps Satchell Paige, maybe could get a PSA 7
Or a 1967 Seaver rookie PSA 7
Perhaps a nice Foxx or Lefty Grove

[steve B]

Ok, I'll go the other way. Jordan. But only because I already have a red Cobb. A green cobb though.... or whichever of the bat on/off Cobbs I don't have yet.

Steve B

[HRBAKER]

Let's see, I can have a card of arguably the greatest player ever from one of the most collected sets ever that is already over 100 years old that celebrates our national pastime, or a basketball card from the 80's. Now that's a tough one for me. Get back to you.

[ls7plus]

Might still be more than a few unopened cases of '86 Fleer basketball around, but there are apparently still more than a few "investors" willing to spend $5,000+ on a gem mint 10 Jordan--go figure! There are a lot better ways to spend that kind of money in cards. Go pre-war hall-of-famers, preferably top echelon like Cobb, and very scarce to downright R-A-R-E (read here "not T206)!!!

Larry

[chaddurbin]

if you purely want to speculate and gamble...then instead of the "tired" cobb/jordan buy some hot up and coming rookie. like if you spent $750 on blake griffin cards at the beginning of the year you'd realize at least 2k right now...or derrick rose, or russell westbrook. even if you follow someone like mike trout, his cards 1.5-2x overnight because all the pre-season mags rated him as the #1 prospect entering this season (which if you follow baseball you would've known for a few months already).

i'd rather do that then buy a cobb or jordan to "invest".

[Mollys Dad]

I had a sort of similar dilemma last year. I was trying to decide between a Cobb or a Gretzky O-pee-chee rookie. I paid $700 for this and have never regretted the decision for a moment. Thanks Cy!

[mintacular]

Let's see, I can have a card of arguably the greatest player ever from one of the most collected sets ever that is already over 100 years old that celebrates our national pastime, or a basketball card from the 80's. Now that's a tough one for me. Get back to you.

Greatest Player Ever could apply to Jordan
Most collected sets could apply 86 Fleer Basketball
National Pastime = no longer applies to baseball
Basketball card from the 80s = not overproduced like everything else from this era

My point is that Michael Jordan is a transcendent figure and is recognized as such in our current society. Even people that hate basketball know/respect Michael Jordan as a player. Even people that don't collect cards might own or buy a Jordan rookie card just to have one....

SHOULD this card command the same $ as a T206 Cobb? Probably not, but I'm a free market capitalist and the market currently dictates both are $750 cards...

For the sake of argument, I am just trying to weigh both supply and demand in coming up with a conclusion. In the sake of supply, it is unclear just how many Jordans are out there, especially NM-MT ones. Let's assume this total # is higher (but not radically) than low grade Red Cobbs--could stronger demand for Jordan cards make this card a better investment?

[steve B]

Not the national pastime? What then? Nascar? NFL? nascar is seeing declining attendance, and the NFL is headed for an NHL style reality check. Baseball's got competition and its own problems, but nothing else has had much staying power at the top

I don't think the demand will remain high for the Jordan card. Yes, arguably the best at his sport, but also a sport that heavily markets flash over substance and tradition. Once the people that saw him play fade, it's a tossup as to where he'll fit in the overall scheme of things. Look at the other great players who aren't as high profile simple because they played earlier. Mikan, Russell, Chamberlain, Kareem, Bird, Johnson......Great players, surely the best of their eras. And in Chamberlains case also arguably the best ever. (2 straight years of nearly averaging the now impressive triple double, and averaged well above that both years of college) His rookie card is from a tougher set, but only sells for about what the Jordan does.

Perhaps Jordan as a sports figure will stand the test of time as well as Cobb has. There are similarities, both are among the very best, both in many ways symbolize their eras which are both the end of a particular segement of their respective sports history.

Steve B

Originally Posted by mintacular

Let's see, I can have a card of arguably the greatest player ever from one of the most collected sets ever that is already over 100 years old that celebrates our national pastime, or a basketball card from the 80's. Now that's a tough one for me. Get back to you.

Greatest Player Ever could apply to Jordan
Most collected sets could apply 86 Fleer Basketball
National Pastime = no longer applies to baseball
Basketball card from the 80s = not overproduced like everything else from this era

My point is that Michael Jordan is a transcendent figure and is recognized as such in our current society. Even people that hate basketball know/respect Michael Jordan as a player. Even people that don't collect cards might own or buy a Jordan rookie card just to have one....

SHOULD this card command the same $ as a T206 Cobb? Probably not, but I'm a free market capitalist and the market currently dictates both are $750 cards...

For the sake of argument, I am just trying to weigh both supply and demand in coming up with a conclusion. In the sake of supply, it is unclear just how many Jordans are out there, especially NM-MT ones. Let's assume this total # is higher (but not radically) than low grade Red Cobbs--could stronger demand for Jordan cards make this card a better investment?

[mintacular]

Well, as much as I love baseball, and while it still retains some popularity, there is not enough kinetic activity for kids to stand around patiently and wait for their turn at bat. Clearly, it's grip on the nation's heartstrings is weakened if not watered down with the emergence of other sports....

In terms of Jordan, it doesn't matter comparing him with other basketball stars. It's like people arguing Mantle is overrated, etc. The market has decided both are iconic stars...

One of the reasons that I raised this question is that two people close to me that I talk to cards about get very excited about seeing the Jordan card but little interest in Cobb....These two people are in there 30s. Think it's always worthwhile to challenge conventional wisdom. And trust me, I have few cards in my collection post 72 so I certaintly understand the instinct to buy vintage only but I'm also very depressed about the future of card collecting especially baseball and think "investment" cards will have to be a confluence of supply AND demand...

[HRBAKER]

Well by that definition I guess Nintendo is now the national pastime.

It's an interesting question for sure. I am not sure I woud expect too many 30 year olds to be that interested in Ty Cobb, not sure it says much about baseball cards or baseball. Now if the same 30 year olds had an inclination towards or a fascination with history then it may be different.

[36GoudeyMan]

There are still unopened packs and packs and packs and boxes and boxes and boxes odf 86/7 Fleer BKB out there, and an known ungodly quantity of Jordan rookies. That's just not true of truly vintage (pre-WWII, not pre-1970) high grade HOF cards from mid- to well-recognized sets. A Cobb is a Cobb is a Cobb... baseball is America's pastime, not seriousoly open to debate, and Cobb is a transcendant, iconic figure whom most of us never saw actually play (so is the stuff of myth now). And while Jordan is a transcendant figure, that's based on a career that ended only a few years ago, not 85. I can't see any post-1980 card being "worth" (for long-term potential) what a pre-war card of a key HOFer from a key, iconic set will be worth. When money flows into collectibles again, it will not be for Jeremy Shockey PSA 10 rookies, it will be for 1933 Butter Cream Ruths.

Having said that, I don't doubt that some of the boomers who have the coin flexibility WILL buy Jeremy Shockey PSA 10 rookies, not because of the colectibility, but because of the idolatry, and that will only run so far, so fast (and won't sustain a market).

[steve B]

Excellent points. Baseball does have competition for kids time, but I was thinking more of an overall lasting popularity. All of the other 3 major sports have had recent periods of wild popularity at the pro level, and all have faded a bit. 20 years from now may be a totally different story. And maybe the best card to buy with 750 would be neither the Cobb or the Jordan. Soccer and MMA cards might be the thing.

The market has Jordan as an iconic star now, but we'll have to wait and see if that lasts. He certainly has a shot at being a lasting icon. Especially being a player who bridges the workman like basketball of the 80's and the overblown showboating of the 1990s-2000's just as Cobb bridged the deadball era and the new livelier 20's. Only time will tell as he's less in the public eye. A messy crash along the lines of Rose or Bonds seems unlikely.
All the guys I compaed him to were very nearly as iconic at one time. And all have become less iconic with less publicity.

When I get a big batch of modern common cards I often try to guess stuff about the owners or figure out when the stuff was set aside. It's actually possible to guess the year pretty closely by what players aren't there. Most people save the big stars, and the players who are briefly touted as the next big thing.

I don't get worked up about the future of the hobby. Its imminent demise has been foretold several times since I started collecting. 3 sets was too many in 81, especially with the strike. The economic downturn in 87 would surely finish it off. There were too many sets with too many cards being made(91-2)The 94 strike would be the end possibly for baseball itself. The steroid problem would drive people away. And the economy ... again....
Sure, some of the dealers who were in it for the quick buck washed out at each dip. 94-96 washed out a vast number. And the hobby changed each time. But it's still going pretty good and maturing as it needs to.

Stamp collecting has been a "dying hobby" since at least 1893.....It must be doing ok, since I can't afford many of the ones I like.


Steve B

Originally Posted by mintacular

Well, as much as I love baseball, and while it still retains some popularity, there is not enough kinetic activity for kids to stand around patiently and wait for their turn at bat. Clearly, it's grip on the nation's heartstrings is weakened if not watered down with the emergence of other sports....

In terms of Jordan, it doesn't matter comparing him with other basketball stars. It's like people arguing Mantle is overrated, etc. The market has decided both are iconic stars...

One of the reasons that I raised this question is that two people close to me that I talk to cards about get very excited about seeing the Jordan card but little interest in Cobb....These two people are in there 30s. Think it's always worthwhile to challenge conventional wisdom. And trust me, I have few cards in my collection post 72 so I certaintly understand the instinct to buy vintage only but I'm also very depressed about the future of card collecting especially baseball and think "investment" cards will have to be a confluence of supply AND demand...

[pgellis]

One thing to think about is that Ty Cobb can no longer do anything to de-value his card.....he has passed away a long time ago.

Michael Jordan can still do something "stupid" to de-value his card.....just ask everyone holding O.J. Simpson RC cards!

[jb217676]

The iconic Jordan RC, relatively affordable and one of my favourite cards of all time! Do hope to get a nice Cobb one day though. My advice... get both!

[ls7plus]

PSA alone has graded well over 8,000 of the Jordans in NMt-Mt or better--6,028 "8"'s. Factor in those that the other grading services have graded, and the probable large amount of unopened, if this card appreciates over the long-term, it'll be like the proverbial slow boat to China. My bet is it goes down by at least 50% over the next 10-15 years, as we become more and more divorced from the time of his playing career. As another board member stated above, look at Chamberlain's '61-'62 Fleer--a far tougher card in any grade, and pretty much stagnant in value for the last 20 years, at least in NMt! In addition, Chamberlain has just as much or more claim to the title of the greatest ever in that sport (especially for those of us who actually saw him play in his prime)--50.4 points per game FOR THE ENTIRE '61-'62 SEASON, 100 POINTS IN A SINGLE GAME, AND A NUMBER OF GAMES WITH 30+ REBOUNDS AGAINST BILL RUSSELL! And if you want to factor in championships, Wilt won when he had the supporting cast, and Jordan played during an era when the NBA, in my opinion as a former devoted fan, was at its weakest--what great team did his Bulls ever beat? Not the Magic Johnson led Lakers in their prime; not the Larry Bird/Robert Parrish/Kevin McHale Celtics; and the "bad boy" Pistons only when they were on the down slide.

Buy the Cobb--if anything, his legacy seems to be significantly on the increase, and even if there are a lot of T206 Cobbs (and there are), they don't even begin to approach the almost ludicrous number of high-grade Jordans.

Just my 2 cents (half-dollar?).

Larry

[teetwoohsix]

Originally Posted by pgellis

One thing to think about is that Ty Cobb can no longer do anything to de-value his card.....he has passed away a long time ago.

Michael Jordan can still do something "stupid" to de-value his card.....just ask everyone holding O.J. Simpson RC cards!

+1,,,,,,,was thinking the same thing, while I was looking at these 3 Near Mint-Mint Manny Ramirez rookie cards I thought could end up being worth something a couple of decades from now (before the PED's issue)....sheesh

[FrankWakefield]

Here in Kentucky the horses are running at Keenland, and they'll next go to Churchill Downs... so some folks are starting to think of horses.

I'm still well satisfied that ballcards aren't investments. I once read a really good article about Tulipmania in the Smithsonian magazine, I'd think it was about 40 years ago. Ballcards can go up, and back down.

Two years ago a really good "investment" would have been a $2 to win ticket on Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby, with Calvin Borel in the irons. The $2 ticket paid $103.20. DanP, that's better than you did on those mutual funds of 14 years ago, but it would have been a foolhardy investment.

[ChiefBenderForever]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

PSA alone has graded well over 8,000 of the Jordans in NMt-Mt or better--6,028 "8"'s. Factor in those that the other grading services have graded, and the probable large amount of unopened, if this card appreciates over the long-term, it'll be like the proverbial slow boat to China. My bet is it goes down by at least 50% over the next 10-15 years, as we become more and more divorced from the time of his playing career. As another board member stated above, look at Chamberlain's '61-'62 Fleer--a far tougher card in any grade, and pretty much stagnant in value for the last 20 years, at least in NMt! In addition, Chamberlain has just as much or more claim to the title of the greatest ever in that sport (especially for those of us who actually saw him play in his prime)--50.4 points per game FOR THE ENTIRE '61-'62 SEASON, 100 POINTS IN A SINGLE GAME, AND A NUMBER OF GAMES WITH 30+ REBOUNDS AGAINST BILL RUSSELL! And if you want to factor in championships, Wilt won when he had the supporting cast, and Jordan played during an era when the NBA, in my opinion as a former devoted fan, was at its weakest--what great team did his Bulls ever beat? Not the Magic Johnson led Lakers in their prime; not the Larry Bird/Robert Parrish/Kevin McHale Celtics; and the "bad boy" Pistons only when they were on the down slide.

Buy the Cobb--if anything, his legacy seems to be significantly on the increase, and even if there are a lot of T206 Cobbs (and there are), they don't even begin to approach the almost ludicrous number of high-grade Jordans.

Just my 2 cents (half-dollar?).

Larry

Great points, but 8,000 graded psa 8 really isn't that many when you think about the millions of others cards printed around the same time. Yes there are lots of unopened packs and cases but many who are 30-50 age group grew up watching Jordan play. From the winning basket at North Carolina, 84 Olympics, Slam Dunk contest, and all the championships. It was something special to see and a very special connection like all the baby boomers had with Mickey Mantle. Another factor is the world wide appeal overseas. When I sold my modern basketball collection some years ago I was shocked at all the emails I got from around the world wanting to know if they could bid, so I started putting I would ship worldwide and what a difference it made. I took chances but went by feedback and must have sent cards to 15-20 different countrys and never had a problem but did get lucky not to get ripped off. A big problem is the NBA is on the verge of collapsing and who knows if it will turn around. Another thing is a Jordan PSA 8 seems like a steal when you compare it to Lebrons 2004 exquisite RC going for $6000-10,000, Carmello $4000, Wade $3000-5000, and many many other RC well over $1000 and the players are straight garbage. Yes it is insanity but people are paying it. The main point is there seems to be a buyer for just about anything and that is what is great about the hobby. I don't see much of a downside to a Jordan RC, or a Cobb. Like Jeff said, get them both !

[mintacular]

PSA alone has graded well over 8,000 of the Jordans in NMt-Mt or better--6,028 "8"'s----Thanks Larry that's the kind of sober analysis I need, probably better to buy this card 5-10 years from now, they'll probably be going for only a couple hundred bucks then....In terms of investment, I should not have used that term00was really trying to figure out if one had more likelyhood to hold its value.... Clearly both will be lucky to hold water and the Jordan is more likely to drop preciptously (sic). I was under the impression that the 86 basket was short-printed but apparently not so much and only compared to the other card products at that time which we all know are still being printed

[ls7plus]

Plus nearly 2200 PSA 7's and/or 7.5's to soak up some of the demand for a nice example. Jordan was truly a tremendous player and icon; its just hard to make that kind of math work in favor of $$ over the long term, especially in light of the probability that there is still a lot of ungraded/unopened out there.

I respectfully disagree with Frank on the broader issue of investment, of course. Ours is a legitimate field for collectible interest over the long term as long as baseball history and heroes are in vogue. The card connects you to the player, the set connects you to the leagues for the most part, and both take you back to the time, almost as if you had a little time machine right there in your hand. They are a "piece of the action" from back then, with the most analgous area of collecting IMO being coins. As I posted some time ago, there have been over 30 sales of coins for over $1 Million, and there are many, many coins valued at over $100K. Check back in time with the assistance of such publications as The Official Red Book: A Guide Book of United States Coins, continuosly published since 1947, or The 100 Greatest U.S. Coins, 3rd Edition, and you will see that many of these got where they are from far more humble levels, and simply compounded in value annually in the range of 10-15%. Coins have history behind them, and take one back to the time of their minting, but lack the personal element our hobby has, ie., the ability to connect one instantly to Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth or Joe Jackson in his own day, through an image they left from just an instant in their lives back then.

Of course, the same rules apply with regard to investing in coins or cards--what you want is rare and significant items, in the best grade you can find or afford. As Q. David Bowers, a very successful and articulate coin dealer for over 50 years with an extremely intuitive, analytical mind, said in the course of his prolific writings, what is common today will be common tomorrow--you can't make something that is common somehow become magically rare. Common coins, such as bright, shiny Morgan Silver Dollars, though certainly historically significant, exist in large quantity in the various mint states coins are graded in. They have been subject to roller coaster rides of up and down values, usually surging when a new hoard of unknowlegable investors come into the field from time to time, then plummeting like a rock when these transients leave. Truly rare, significant coins, however, have plowed a steady upwards course in value, largely immune to these kinds of cycles. Frank, the problem with Tulipmania was that there was a virtually unending supply of tulips, which made investing in them the equivalent of buying into a Ponzei scheme.

Of course, you've still got to pick the right cards. Certainly those cut out of the same mold as the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth (first sale I'm aware of was circa 1989(?), for just $6,000) and the T206 Wagner (Barry sold one in the late '80's for $16,000) fit the bill. The question is whether there are others emerging that will also, and as the thread re the next $100K card reveals, there are indeed others surging towards and past that mark. There are others just beginning that journey, at currently much more modest price levels. And it doesn't have to be a $100K card--one going from $400 to $8,000 over even 25 years represents an annual compound return in excess of 12%. Those cards are out there, as are the cards that are $2,000 now and will be $20,000+ later. Analyze and figure out which ones fit the bill and are much more affordable now. It's okay to buy the Jordan--just buy it because you like Jordan, and not because you think that because of his iconic status, his cards will reach stratospheric levels!

Just my $2.50 worth!

Best to everyone in their collecting,

Larry

[mintacular]

One more thing, Baseball Card Exchange one of the largest unopened wax dealers whose $'s are pretty reasonable is selling one pack '86/87 BB for $350, multiply that x 36 = $12,600 for a full wax box....Granted that is full retail but even if a full box sells for $5-10K at this time, clearly there are not hundreds/thousands of '86 Basketball wax boxes just sitting around unopened....BTW--he currently has not full boxes for sale...

[Bosox Blair]

I agree with what Larry said in this thread and thank him for throwing some numbers out there. I think many people don't fully appreciate the vast gap in "population" between pre-war cards and modern cards. Heck even '50s Topps card populations are many, many times almost any pre-war card.

Another interesting point - you picked Cobb red. I know this card is popular, but it was super-printed in T206. So you even picked Cobb's least scarce T206. Again, it is popular, so that plays into the demand side of supply and demand, but I don't think it is the smartest "investment' to buy an item with a lot of supply. Also, tobacco cards can be found in better grades than candy cards. So a low grade red Cobb is not special at all.

As an aside I saw that a PSA 3 E92 Dockman Cy Young just closed in Bagger's Auction for $545 all in. Now THAT would have been a good investment. That card in that grade usually goes $800-1000+. A VG grade is actually a mid-grade for a candy card. And that Young is at least 15 times rarer than a red Cobb in all grades.

Cheers,
Blair

[npa589]

The answer is neither.


Pick up a Rony Seikaly rookie card instead!

[LanceRoten]

Cobb, easy. The Jordan has hit the ceiling imo.

[Chesbro41]

The answer is to get a Ruth.

[ls7plus]

You've got to like the Babe--didn't a '33 Butter Cream (2-3 known?) recently bring $111,000 in a REA auction? And he's got a number of very scarce to downright rare cards from the '20's still out there at a lot more modest prices (I hope I run across his '23-24 Exhibit--duplicate of the '21, but with borders--at the right time for cash flow). But sometimes you've got to buy some cards just because you really like the guy, even current players (at least I do--Im almost ashamed to admit on this forum that I bought an orange refractor Brennan Boesch rookie last year, when he was going great guns, and now that he's not pressing, he's doing quite well again so far this year. He's just a favorite player of mine. But despite the card's "rarity" in that particular form, I don't expect it to be an investment. So long as he sticks around in the 'Bigs, and is any good at all, I'd probably never sell it). Hey, sometimes it's just got to be fun!

Larry

[ls7plus]

Just checked--the '33 Butter Cream Ruth in PSA 4 went for $111,625 in the 2008 REA auction. Make mine rare!

Larry