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The Long-Term Future of Vintage Cards
Wanted to get some seasoned collector's opinions on this - more just for conversation fodder as I know no one can predict the future and many factors are at play here (economy, next generation's interest in baseball/collectibles). What do you think the long-term (25-50 years) future is for vintage baseball cards.
Alot of people speculate that someone like me is part of the current up-tick bubble - 40 year old man who collected junk cards as a kid now with more financial stability getting back into a hobby for childhood nostalgia and small time side investment for next generation. However, I think I'm a little unique in that I grew up with Jose Canseco, Will Clark and Ken Griffey but now that I am back into collecting enjoy chasing low-mid grade cards of HOFers like Aaron, Mays and Clemente who I never saw play and honestly my dad was a bit of a Mantle fan but not exactly the type to talk at length about baseball greats. I love the history of the game and art of vintage cards and hoping to instill this in my kids. But if the majority of vintage collectors currently are more in baby boomer range does that mean 25+ years from now there will be little base support collecting vintage cards at all? Is there any sense younger collectors are gravitating more to vintage or still chasing blue and purple refractor auto cards (or more likely not interested in cards at all as dealers not kids really drive that market). Will cards in general go the way of stamps and coins or is there something unique about cards that will there always be strong given their robust history? Will there be a resurgence of interest in tangible, historic collections as the digital age progresses or will the more millennial attitude prevail that there is nothing inherently valuable about a piece of cardboard as it has no practical utility? Will a box of PSA 8 Aarons some day sit next to a box of Hummels at a flea market for $5 apiece? Instead of stores that start "that $500 card used to be in the spokes of my bicycle" will we tell stories that start "that $2 card used to be in my safety deposit box encased in plastic?" |
#2
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This hobby is unique in its sense of history, reverence of the sport's greats, and how it translates into collecting activity. I never saw Babe Ruth play; he died long before I was born. Doesn't matter. The history keeps him alive and his cards are more desired now than ever before. The luster is never going to wear off Aaron, Robinson, Clemente, Mantle, Ruth, Cobb, etc. The modern collectors playing pack lotto today will be drawn to the older cards eventually.
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Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 09-20-2019 at 12:17 PM. |
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I do not have the slightest idea myself on what the card market will be doing in 25 years, and won't live to find out, but I know from hanging out here for awhile there will be no shortage of folks with answers to your question.
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I might live to see what happens in 25 years.
If it's anything like the last 40 + it's going to be interesting. |
#5
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+1
__________________
. "A life is not important except in the impact it has on others lives" - Jackie Robinson “If you have a chance to make life better for others and fail to do so, you are wasting your time on this earth.”- Roberto Clemente |
#6
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I am going to be 56 years old this year (freakin' A...really???) and have been collecting since I was nine years old. I have been a card show promoter, a card store owner, collector, show dealer and probably about almost all one can be in this hobby and let me just say 25 years ago they were still asking this same question.
The line that designated vintage has now moved to the early 80's, those guys who were not supposed to be collecting the 50's cards because we never saw the players play are now collecting the 50's and beyond (like me) and the hobby is now stronger than ever despite the latest scandals. If you are asking what the long term effects on time will be to vintage cards, I Will say now what many said 25 years ago. There may be a few less collectors but we have to get the kids involved now to ensure hobby growth. Either way, if I had to bet a few Ripken rookies on it I would say that the hobby and more notably, vintage cards will be just as popular then as they are now. I hope I live long enough to see my predictions come true. |
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I am 42 and also grew up with Canseco, etc but now just collect cards of guys I never saw play.
I am not sure. Demographics suggest a negative price correction when the boomers pass on simply because there are so many of them and not enough gen Xers or millenials to fill their shoes, even if they collect as much on average, which is itself questionable. With pre war vintage I don’t think there will be much impact since supply is so low, but stuff from the 50s and 60s will likely take a hit. Beyond that....who knows? Maybe AI will mess up society so much that humans don’t collect anything 50 years from now. Or maybe it will make us collect more than we do now? We are entering uncharted waters and history doesn’t offer much of a useful guide. My daughter (just shy of 2 years old) collects cards featuring pictures of cute puppies on them though, so maybe the upcoming generation will still collect cards after all!
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My blog about collecting cards in Japan: https://baseballcardsinjapan.blogspot.jp/ |
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Well, according to John Tesh radio, young millenials are turning back to vintage. They have restored the polaroid camera to prominence, and they have even recharged the disposable camera industry. So it is quite possible that the generation known for ruining fast food restaurants and mega box stores will actually save a couple hobbies.
As for my opinion about 1980-1993 cards, I think you will find that Hall of Famers' cards will increase, but the rest will be left in the dust. It's slowly happening now. What I think will actually bounce back in value will be Starting Lineup figurines. How many of those will still be in boxes in 25 years? My son saw mine and asked if he could play with them. Since they hold almost no value, I said sure. Starting Lineup figures, with card and/or poster will make a comeback.
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Barry Larkin, Joey Votto, Tris Speaker, 1930-45 Cincinnati Reds, T206 Cincinnati Successful deals with: Banksfan14, Brianp-beme, Bumpus Jones, Dacubfan (x5), Dstrawberryfan39, Ed_Hutchinson, Fballguy, fusorcruiser (x2), GoCalBears, Gorditadog, Luke, MikeKam, Moosedog, Nineunder71, Powdered H20, PSU, Ronniehatesjazz, Roarfrom34, Sebie43, Seven, and Wondo |
#9
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I think the Post War Vintage Market is in a major bubble except for certain guys I would stay away if you’re strictly interested in investment potential.
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#10
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vintage cards
There will always be a solid demand for vintage cards in all conditions.
I am a set builder and bid on individual commons and lots exmt and better from the 1950's and 1960's and they are very difficult to win. High demand. Also as far as stars are concerned, A player like Stan Musial for example, an HOFer who hasn't played in 56 years, The demand for his cards are as strong as ever. Ditto an icon like Mantle. You would have to be on the north side of 60 to remember him in his prime. His cards are as expensive as ever. This type of concern has been around for many years. Unwarranted. |
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LOL - too funny!
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Successful transactions with: Chesboro41, jimivintage, Bocabirdman, marcdelpercio, Jollyelm, Smanzari, asoriano, pclpads, joem36, nolemmings, t206blogcom, Northviewcats, Xplainer, Kickstand19, GrayGhost, btcarfango, Brian Van Horn, USMC09, G36, scotgreb, tere1071, kurri17, wrm, David James, tjenkins, SteveWhite, OhioCard Collector, sysks22, ejstel. Marty |
#12
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I've heard stars will go up in value. But what about complete sets? Are people going to care about common player A or B? Or high # A or B? Just curious. I've started working on sets (57, 58 and 62), but I'm not sure I want to continue. Just seems those are so numerous and easy to find. I mean, I'm paying $1 for Ex condition 1957s and $3 for Ex condition 1962 Topps high #s. Where does the value start?
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Anyone on Twitter? Here's my new handle @1millionrangers I have done deals with: snowman, exhibitman, roquan, vintagetoppscards, bobsbbcards, sayitaintso, tsp06, gorditadogg, 4reals, bnorth, clydepepper, jcfowler6, jimmer77, tsp06, Bartholomew_Bump_Bailey, swk473 plus others. |
#13
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Supply and demand will drive things as always. Not trying to reduce this to an economic-only issue but what I've seen since 1970 is that most people like to collect what they think will retain value.
We know the supply isn't going to change much so the more unknown factor will be demand. Possibly less interested collectors percentage-wise going forward but increasing population so demand overall could remain much like it is today. Or not. LOL Will future generations have the same reverence for pre-WWII baseball? Or pre-1980 for that matter? Who knows surely not me.
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Past transactions with ALR-Bishop, Fleerfan, Leerob538, Northviewcats, wondo, EconTeachert205 "Collectors were supposedly enjoying the pure hobby of baseball card collecting, but they were also concerned with the monetary value of their collections." House of Cards by John Bloom, 1997. |
#14
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Regards Rich
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Look for our show listings in the Net 54 Calendar section |
#15
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I open 1980s-1990s Topps packs from time to time just for fun when I find them at a good price. For instance, I found 3 from 1988 Topps at a store on Friday, so I bought them. Was actually an opened box, but I only bought 3. I always find joy in pulling the HOFers (Gwynn, Rose, although not a HOFer, Jackson, etc.). I hang on to those. I don't think they'll skyrocket in the future, but a HOFer is a HOFer.
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Anyone on Twitter? Here's my new handle @1millionrangers I have done deals with: snowman, exhibitman, roquan, vintagetoppscards, bobsbbcards, sayitaintso, tsp06, gorditadogg, 4reals, bnorth, clydepepper, jcfowler6, jimmer77, tsp06, Bartholomew_Bump_Bailey, swk473 plus others. Last edited by wdwfan; 09-22-2019 at 03:35 PM. |
#16
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Several years ago I went through a heavy case-breaking phase where I bought 1989, 1900 and 1991 Topps sealed cases cheaply from BBCE. I busted every pack! Took several months but so much fun. I kept all the hall of famers and key rookies. I now have about 50 each of Johnson, Biggio, Smoltz, Thomas, Chipper, etc. I'm not sure where they'll end up -- but there have to be some kids out there that will some day want these hall of famers and rookies. My oldest grandson is only five so not yet following baseball so it will be a while before we can open wax boxes together but I will do what I can do to keep the tradition alive.
__________________
Past transactions with ALR-Bishop, Fleerfan, Leerob538, Northviewcats, wondo, EconTeachert205 "Collectors were supposedly enjoying the pure hobby of baseball card collecting, but they were also concerned with the monetary value of their collections." House of Cards by John Bloom, 1997. |
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Just in general, baseball differs from other sports in the reverence for it's own history, and it's place in American society for marking time and nostalgia. Football may be more popular today in terms of fans and TV ratings, but it never will own the lock on our imaginations from a historical perspective that baseball does. Due in large part to this I think, vintage cards have always had a huge following and just based on what we know right now, it's hard to see that changing dramatically - especially for prewar where the supply in comparison to demand is so low. I would agree that junk era cards and especially commons aren't likely to suddenly rise in value. For the rest, and in the wheelhouse of stuff that I collect from the 1950's and 60's it's difficult to imagine them suddenly losing a lot of value, but I suppose there are unforeseen events, economic or otherwise - which could happen and lead to that.
I hope to be around in a quarter century or more to see how it goes...
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Postwar stars & HOF'ers. Prewar, Bowman & Topps Cubs team endeavors. |
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Great discussion, thanks everyone. Anyone think that continued globalization may someday increase the demand for vintage cards? Although baseball hasn't really shared the same international explosion of popularity as say the NBA and now even the NFL, there has always been a sort of "status symbol" to owning high value vintage cards and wondering if as China for example continues to develop and mature, this sense of owning a piece of American history (or at least a valuable collectible like a piece of art that many US CEOs and top 1%ers chase) could continue to improve the market overall in the future? Not that I have any ambitions of someday owning a 52 Mantle or am close to that socioeconomic level, just that if there's more attention in other countries that Mr X businessman just bought an expensive Mantle card, the desire to own some emulation of that on a smaller scale could boost the market in general in that country/region? It's one thing if millions of Americans make up the market for cards when only a few thousand exist but image the impact if 10x that many globally become interested and have the access to them on Ebay and consignment sites. This may already be happening to some degree or it may be a completely asinine thought.
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#19
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I live in Japan and baseball is hugely popular here. Its also got the third biggest economy in the world, so lots of consumers with money. And of course there are a lot of Japanese players in the US so awareness of the US sport is quite high. But....while there is a market for American cards, even here its not that big, and most of it is focused on current cards (particularly of Japanese MLB players). Vintage, particularly pre-war, American cards are off the radar here except maybe for a handful of collectors. And if that is in the country that would be probably the most likely to develop a market for American vintage cards, everywhere else (except Canada) its going to be non-existent. Baseball cards aren't really like the art market, which is global because people in all societies can at some level appreciate art even if it is produced in a different country from their own. Baseball cards though are so tied to interest in the sport that unless baseball itself becomes more popular, interest in baseball cards isn't going to catch on. A wealthy Chinese businessman will gladly splurge huge sums on a piece of art by a famous American painter because he can claim bragging rights among his peers, who at least will know that art by famous artists is expensive. Perfect vanity purchase, which is what all these things are at the high end. A T206 Wagner though? None of his peers will be impressed with that even if he knows what it is. Forget about it. I mean, ask yourself if you are interested in investing big money on cards of old cricket players from the UK and you can get an idea of how unappealing these things are in societies where baseball isn't popular.
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My blog about collecting cards in Japan: https://baseballcardsinjapan.blogspot.jp/ |
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Wow incredible insights Sean especially form someone living it first hand! Makes sense Japan would be the place if any to witness this and if little to no market there that’s prob the best test case.
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Also, baseball isn't popular in mainland China yet but there is reason to think it might become popular there in the future. Its massively popular in the other countries in the north east Asian region which all have pro leagues and that includes Chinese speaking Taiwan, and the PRC has fielded teams in international competition. SO there might be a latent interest there which hasn't been developed much yet but could be in the future, which might spur interest in baseball cards in the world's second biggest economy, which would obviously be big. So there might be some potential for a more global market to emerge, but its probably still going to be limited by the lack of interest in baseball everywhere else!
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My blog about collecting cards in Japan: https://baseballcardsinjapan.blogspot.jp/ |
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Guys, I think we are overthinking this. A hobby is supposed to be fun. If you can't have fun collecting a certain class of item because you have to worry about profitability, go buy a mutual fund instead.
There are myriad budget ways to collect postwar mainstream cards. Look at 'collector grade' stuff. You may find it more fun to assemble a cheap collection of lesser condition cards than stressing over the long term prospects for return on your 'investment'.
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Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... |
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BUT my day job is one that involves economic analysis, and I have fun applying the principles from that to my hobby and debating it with people. Not because I'm stressing about profitability, I haven't sold a card in over 25 years, but because speculating about the macro future of the hobby is part of the "fun" in it to me. To each his own I say.
__________________
My blog about collecting cards in Japan: https://baseballcardsinjapan.blogspot.jp/ |
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All are generalized statements with no dislike towards any....it’s all good in my book either way :-) having fun is most important ! Last edited by Johnny630; 09-26-2019 at 09:31 AM. |
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I don't know guys, I feel like it is so sacrilegious on these boards to discuss the value of cards because you inevitably get blasted for not being in the hobby for the "right" reasons. In my humble opinion, no one can tell anyone else their reasons for collecting ANYTHING are invalid or inappropriate. Yes part of the excitement of collecting cards to me is the possibility of retaining or increasing in value - some of that value is the non-quantifiable owning a piece of history and some of it is feeling like the $100 I may "invest" in a card today won't be worth $0 in 20 years. But the comparisons to mutual funds are a stretch to me. Yes this is fun - but part of that fun for me is the inherent value of the cards (just like it was when I was 10 thinking that a $5 Kevin Maas RC was the most precious thing I owned).
I just have low tolerance when people defend this holier than thou "honor" of collecting cards and tell others "go do xxx instead" if you are looking for an investment. I'm sorry, but that is not your call to make. Part of the fun of collecting for me is speculating about the future of cards - no, not to put my kids through college but wondering if my $500 collection will be worth $1000 or $5 in 20 years. Neither one may make me collect any more or less today but it is definitely a driver of the enjoyment. Last edited by mferronibc; 09-26-2019 at 09:44 AM. |
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One offshoot to collecting cards in this era is trying to document and find errors, print variations etc.
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#27
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Matt, I am not trying to be condescending; what I am saying is that if concerns over investment returns make this hobby stressful for someone, that person should either find a way to make it fun again or invest in something more stable than cards. For me, it was going into low grade cards from the postwar era. I am comfortable spending $500 on 100-200 raw cards; I put 'em in an album and enjoy thumbing through them, and I pretty much know that the 'collection' will sell for close to what I paid for it even in bad times: I watched the activity at shows during the recession and the one reliable inventory to have was collector grade, modestly priced stuff. I found that I am not comfortable buying a very expensive single card and then wondering whether I made a prudent purchase, so I rarely do so.
It isn't about being in the hobby for the 'right' reasons (I don't care why someone is a card collector), it is about considering whether the hobby is stressing out the hobbyist because of the money. If that's where a collector is, he should do himself a favor and bail, because this isn't really a stable investment: the cost to exit runs about 13%-20% of the gross sale price, it may take months to even get a large collection to market, and prices are fairly sensitive to general economic conditions, especially for niche collecting. I'm planning on using my collection as my part time business when (if) I retire. I think it would a fun change of pace. But I have no illusions that my cards will allow me to retire.
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Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 09-26-2019 at 03:12 PM. |
#28
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Last edited by JUrsaner; 04-21-2020 at 07:45 PM. |
#29
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I started collecting as a kid during the junk wax era. Took many bicycle rides down to the neighborhood liquor store to get my "weekly fix" of late '80s/early '90s Topps wax packs. It was like hitting the jackpot when I scored a good deal on some late '70s to mid '80s cards. Spent many hours staring at those unattainable '50s and '60s Clemente Aaron Mantle Mays Koufax etc. cards displayed behind the glass at local card shops. Fell out of the hobby after the junk wax bust of the early '90s, and then got back into collecting about 10 years ago, mostly affordable collector-grade stuff I found online. I find it to be an enjoyable hobby tied to a game I've loved since playing little league as a kid. I never buy to flip, although I have sold cards a few times on Ebay to free up a little cash, or when I decided to shift my collecting focus to a different niche or era on a couple of occasions. It's still fun to flip through my collection from time to time, admiring the history/nostalgia of the player images, and the stats and trivia on the backs. As far as the investment aspect is concerned, I'd say that it holds about 50% of the weight in my purchase decisions. It is comforting to know that I'll be able to liquidate some of my collection someday, if the need ever arises. |
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Hummels
From OP: “Will a box of PSA 8 Aarons some day sit next to a box of Hummels at a flea market for $5 apiece?” Ouch - that definitely made me wince! You are a wordsmith sir!
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#31
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I've found that those who blast people that way are the ones who don't have sharp money-making skills (and so they get petty, jealous, and uncomfortable when the business angle is brought up). Or afraid that evil speculators will drive up prices on them. This industry has naturally become a fairly large one that involves plenty of speculation, and to infer problems with trying to make some bucks is absurd. When I was buying and selling in high school during the junk wax era, the profit angle was mostly my focus. But now, it's a combination of both that and the collectible/nostalgia aspect, as some others have noted for themselves. Actually, the latter has taken precedence for now. I actually find that dichotomy to be fascinating, and it's part of what got me interested in it all again Last edited by cardsagain74; 04-24-2020 at 11:39 AM. |
#32
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Since getting back into cards in 2012 nostalgia has been a main part of my buying/collecting. Mostly on the football side thus far but I'm slowly adding baseball, basketball etc. Should always be a market, how strong who knows. Nothing like finding good looking vintage. For now, this is my oldest on the baseball side, if 67 counts as vintage . Reggie Smith, very, very good oft forgotten player [/IMG] |
#33
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He would've had Gil Hodges type just barely short of HOF consideration numbers if he'd stayed in San Francisco for those two years. Plus he had a gun from right field IIRC |
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