Vintage Card Performance During A Recession

[Exhibitman]

You know, economists have predicted six of the last three recessions. The best indicators are businesses that get cut first when things slow up: construction, public relations, executive recruitment. My wife works in recruiting and her company has seen a marked slowdown in business. But my construction and public relations clients haven’t been hit yet. When I get a spike in collections cases from them it is time to batten down the hatches. Last time around my entire construction and real estate practice went from deals to collections virtually overnight...a year before the sh** hit the fan. Right after the 2007 NSCC. The cycle before that it was an onslaught of collections work against dot com companies and developers that collapsed and stopped paying vendors. The first cycle I experienced was right out of law school. It took the legs out of the construction industry to such an extent that the firm I was with (a construction practice) laid off 75% of its associates.

My research on boxing cards showed a lag between recession and effect of about one year. Prices were good in the months after the debacle but dropped after that. Bottomed out around October 2010.