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Go Back   Net54baseball.com Forums > Net54baseball Postwar Sportscard Forums > Postwar Baseball Cards Forum (Pre-1980)

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  #1  
Old 09-20-2019, 10:34 AM
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Matt Ferroni
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Default The Long-Term Future of Vintage Cards

Wanted to get some seasoned collector's opinions on this - more just for conversation fodder as I know no one can predict the future and many factors are at play here (economy, next generation's interest in baseball/collectibles). What do you think the long-term (25-50 years) future is for vintage baseball cards.

Alot of people speculate that someone like me is part of the current up-tick bubble - 40 year old man who collected junk cards as a kid now with more financial stability getting back into a hobby for childhood nostalgia and small time side investment for next generation. However, I think I'm a little unique in that I grew up with Jose Canseco, Will Clark and Ken Griffey but now that I am back into collecting enjoy chasing low-mid grade cards of HOFers like Aaron, Mays and Clemente who I never saw play and honestly my dad was a bit of a Mantle fan but not exactly the type to talk at length about baseball greats.

I love the history of the game and art of vintage cards and hoping to instill this in my kids. But if the majority of vintage collectors currently are more in baby boomer range does that mean 25+ years from now there will be little base support collecting vintage cards at all? Is there any sense younger collectors are gravitating more to vintage or still chasing blue and purple refractor auto cards (or more likely not interested in cards at all as dealers not kids really drive that market). Will cards in general go the way of stamps and coins or is there something unique about cards that will there always be strong given their robust history? Will there be a resurgence of interest in tangible, historic collections as the digital age progresses or will the more millennial attitude prevail that there is nothing inherently valuable about a piece of cardboard as it has no practical utility? Will a box of PSA 8 Aarons some day sit next to a box of Hummels at a flea market for $5 apiece? Instead of stores that start "that $500 card used to be in the spokes of my bicycle" will we tell stories that start "that $2 card used to be in my safety deposit box encased in plastic?"
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  #2  
Old 09-20-2019, 11:17 AM
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This hobby is unique in its sense of history, reverence of the sport's greats, and how it translates into collecting activity. I never saw Babe Ruth play; he died long before I was born. Doesn't matter. The history keeps him alive and his cards are more desired now than ever before. The luster is never going to wear off Aaron, Robinson, Clemente, Mantle, Ruth, Cobb, etc. The modern collectors playing pack lotto today will be drawn to the older cards eventually.
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  #3  
Old 09-20-2019, 11:19 AM
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I do not have the slightest idea myself on what the card market will be doing in 25 years, and won't live to find out, but I know from hanging out here for awhile there will be no shortage of folks with answers to your question.
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Old 09-20-2019, 01:56 PM
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I might live to see what happens in 25 years.

If it's anything like the last 40 + it's going to be interesting.
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Old 09-20-2019, 07:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ALR-bishop View Post
I do not have the slightest idea myself on what the card market will be doing in 25 years, and won't live to find out, but I know from hanging out here for awhile there will be no shortage of folks with answers to your question.
+1
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  #6  
Old 09-20-2019, 07:40 PM
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I am going to be 56 years old this year (freakin' A...really???) and have been collecting since I was nine years old. I have been a card show promoter, a card store owner, collector, show dealer and probably about almost all one can be in this hobby and let me just say 25 years ago they were still asking this same question.

The line that designated vintage has now moved to the early 80's, those guys who were not supposed to be collecting the 50's cards because we never saw the players play are now collecting the 50's and beyond (like me) and the hobby is now stronger than ever despite the latest scandals. If you are asking what the long term effects on time will be to vintage cards, I Will say now what many said 25 years ago. There may be a few less collectors but we have to get the kids involved now to ensure hobby growth. Either way, if I had to bet a few Ripken rookies on it I would say that the hobby and more notably, vintage cards will be just as popular then as they are now. I hope I live long enough to see my predictions come true.
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  #7  
Old 09-20-2019, 07:51 PM
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I am 42 and also grew up with Canseco, etc but now just collect cards of guys I never saw play.

I am not sure. Demographics suggest a negative price correction when the boomers pass on simply because there are so many of them and not enough gen Xers or millenials to fill their shoes, even if they collect as much on average, which is itself questionable.

With pre war vintage I don’t think there will be much impact since supply is so low, but stuff from the 50s and 60s will likely take a hit.

Beyond that....who knows? Maybe AI will mess up society so much that humans don’t collect anything 50 years from now. Or maybe it will make us collect more than we do now? We are entering uncharted waters and history doesn’t offer much of a useful guide.

My daughter (just shy of 2 years old) collects cards featuring pictures of cute puppies on them though, so maybe the upcoming generation will still collect cards after all!
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  #8  
Old 09-20-2019, 08:41 PM
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Well, according to John Tesh radio, young millenials are turning back to vintage. They have restored the polaroid camera to prominence, and they have even recharged the disposable camera industry. So it is quite possible that the generation known for ruining fast food restaurants and mega box stores will actually save a couple hobbies.

As for my opinion about 1980-1993 cards, I think you will find that Hall of Famers' cards will increase, but the rest will be left in the dust. It's slowly happening now. What I think will actually bounce back in value will be Starting Lineup figurines. How many of those will still be in boxes in 25 years? My son saw mine and asked if he could play with them. Since they hold almost no value, I said sure. Starting Lineup figures, with card and/or poster will make a comeback.
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Old 09-21-2019, 10:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ALR-bishop View Post
I do not have the slightest idea myself on what the card market will be doing in 25 years, and won't live to find out, but I know from hanging out here for awhile there will be no shortage of folks with answers to your question.
LOL - too funny!
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  #10  
Old 09-21-2019, 09:35 PM
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I've heard stars will go up in value. But what about complete sets? Are people going to care about common player A or B? Or high # A or B? Just curious. I've started working on sets (57, 58 and 62), but I'm not sure I want to continue. Just seems those are so numerous and easy to find. I mean, I'm paying $1 for Ex condition 1957s and $3 for Ex condition 1962 Topps high #s. Where does the value start?
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  #11  
Old 09-22-2019, 09:40 AM
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Supply and demand will drive things as always. Not trying to reduce this to an economic-only issue but what I've seen since 1970 is that most people like to collect what they think will retain value.

We know the supply isn't going to change much so the more unknown factor
will be demand. Possibly less interested collectors percentage-wise going forward but increasing population so demand overall could remain much like it is today. Or not. LOL

Will future generations have the same reverence for pre-WWII baseball? Or pre-1980 for that matter? Who knows surely not me.
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  #12  
Old 04-21-2020, 06:33 PM
JUrsaner JUrsaner is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mferronibc View Post
Wanted to get some seasoned collector's opinions on this - more just for conversation fodder as I know no one can predict the future and many factors are at play here (economy, next generation's interest in baseball/collectibles). What do you think the long-term (25-50 years) future is for vintage baseball cards.

Alot of people speculate that someone like me is part of the current up-tick bubble - 40 year old man who collected junk cards as a kid now with more financial stability getting back into a hobby for childhood nostalgia and small time side investment for next generation. However, I think I'm a little unique in that I grew up with Jose Canseco, Will Clark and Ken Griffey but now that I am back into collecting enjoy chasing low-mid grade cards of HOFers like Aaron, Mays and Clemente who I never saw play and honestly my dad was a bit of a Mantle fan but not exactly the type to talk at length about baseball greats.

I love the history of the game and art of vintage cards and hoping to instill this in my kids. But if the majority of vintage collectors currently are more in baby boomer range does that mean 25+ years from now there will be little base support collecting vintage cards at all? Is there any sense younger collectors are gravitating more to vintage or still chasing blue and purple refractor auto cards (or more likely not interested in cards at all as dealers not kids really drive that market). Will cards in general go the way of stamps and coins or is there something unique about cards that will there always be strong given their robust history? Will there be a resurgence of interest in tangible, historic collections as the digital age progresses or will the more millennial attitude prevail that there is nothing inherently valuable about a piece of cardboard as it has no practical utility? Will a box of PSA 8 Aarons some day sit next to a box of Hummels at a flea market for $5 apiece? Instead of stores that start "that $500 card used to be in the spokes of my bicycle" will we tell stories that start "that $2 card used to be in my safety deposit box encased in plastic?"
Great thread and a topic I think about a lot. I'm in a similar boat to you - 35 years old. Grew a love for vintage as a kid. Collect as a hobby, but enjoy the inherent analysis / investment aspects of collecting. Never saw Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Clemente play but took connection to Topps from childhood and integrated that with history of the game and connection to the 1950s-1960s sets. That continued to branch out into oddball and some prewar, etc. I don't think that is unique. A lot of older collectors on Net54, but I think many of the people chasing low-mid grade vintage and prewar cards today are GenX and even older millennials (born in the 1981-1985 time frame) that were part the baseball card craze of the early 90s. Have a lot of the same feelings on the topic as you do though in terms of long-term and more recently have noticed my collection goals changing. Started buying some rare stuff from the '80s '90s and have felt much more of a connection to it. You've already started to see it in high end graded cards (PWCC) and especially in '90s basketball, but I think that could broaden into a much larger market over time. Some of the unique insert sets, Tiffany, parallels, true chase cards, etc. Baseball should thrive just because of the connection to our generations' childhood collecting, even if popularity of the sport continues to wane a bit.








Last edited by JUrsaner; 04-21-2020 at 06:45 PM.
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  #13  
Old 04-22-2020, 02:57 PM
JunkyJoe JunkyJoe is offline
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Originally Posted by Johnny630 View Post
It seems like a lot are much more interested in making money from cards then enjoying/collecting them. Would be cool to take a poll how many on board are full time dealers, part time dealers, eBay sellers, auction houses, flippers or pure collectors. . I’m sure this would never get completely honest responses....hobby/ industry is Full of Big Fishermen Stories /Big Whoopers ...Would get the well I sell what I upgraded from my collection or I sell to buy more stuff for my PC blah blah it is what it is people....calling this a hobby for most people that ship has sailed it’s a industry/money making side thing or full time gig for many.

All are generalized statements with no dislike towards any....it’s all good in my book either way :-) having fun is most important !
+1 on the poll idea (different thread?)

I started collecting as a kid during the junk wax era. Took many bicycle rides down to the neighborhood liquor store to get my "weekly fix" of late '80s/early '90s Topps wax packs. It was like hitting the jackpot when I scored a good deal on some late '70s to mid '80s cards. Spent many hours staring at those unattainable '50s and '60s Clemente Aaron Mantle Mays Koufax etc. cards displayed behind the glass at local card shops. Fell out of the hobby after the junk wax bust of the early '90s, and then got back into collecting about 10 years ago, mostly affordable collector-grade stuff I found online.

I find it to be an enjoyable hobby tied to a game I've loved since playing little league as a kid. I never buy to flip, although I have sold cards a few times on Ebay to free up a little cash, or when I decided to shift my collecting focus to a different niche or era on a couple of occasions. It's still fun to flip through my collection from time to time, admiring the history/nostalgia of the player images, and the stats and trivia on the backs. As far as the investment aspect is concerned, I'd say that it holds about 50% of the weight in my purchase decisions. It is comforting to know that I'll be able to liquidate some of my collection someday, if the need ever arises.
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Old 04-24-2020, 09:59 AM
MarcosCards MarcosCards is offline
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From OP: “Will a box of PSA 8 Aarons some day sit next to a box of Hummels at a flea market for $5 apiece?” Ouch - that definitely made me wince! You are a wordsmith sir!
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