Guys, I think we are overthinking this. A hobby is supposed to be fun. If you can't have fun collecting a certain class of item because you have to worry about profitability, go buy a mutual fund instead.
There are myriad budget ways to collect postwar mainstream cards. Look at 'collector grade' stuff. You may find it more fun to assemble a cheap collection of lesser condition cards than stressing over the long term prospects for return on your 'investment'.
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