What Is the Median Scarcity for Old Judge Poses?
Question for Jay or Joe or whoever else wants to chime in:
What is the median scarcity for Old Judge poses? By this I mean how many copies exist of the Old Judge pose that is right in the middle of the 2000+ pose scarcity continuum? Obviously just looking for an informed estimate here. Hope everyone is having a great holiday and thanks in advance for the feedback. Scot |
Im curious as well about this. I would like to know how many examples of my one OJ card exists George Myers (catching)
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I would guess the average is right around 15-20, figuring 2460 poses and a somewhere between 30,000 and 50,000 Old Judge cards exist. The average pose would then have about 15-20 examples.
To answer the Myers question, he is a common player to find, but certain poses are tougher to find even among common players, so the only way to really find out how many approximately exist is keeping track over a long time. I would say at least 100 Myers cards exist and his tagging player pose doesn't show up often, so the breakdown of his three cards could be 40-40-20(tagging). Just a rough estimate based on what I've seen. |
Thanks for the input. 15-20 is lower than I would have guessed -- but my guess would have been totally uninformed.
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So every Old Judge card is rarer than the T206 Honus Wagner.
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Well, many of the Old Judge poses are extremely rare, so they drag down the average. If you saw the thread where we talked about Taylor Shafer, we mentioned that one of his cards(any pose) probably hasn't been for sale publicly for at least 12 years, but he has five poses in the set. I can't imagine more than five exist of any of his poses. There are a few players who fit that same mold as well, so they lower the average
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OJ population by pose varies significantly and is best discussed by first understanding to which years/subsets the pose belongs. George Myers, for example, has three poses as follows:
337-1 Bat at ready, looking at camera = Issued 1887 (type A & B), 1888 (Fb), & 1889 (Fc) 337-2 Stooping, hands waist high = Issued 1887 (type A & B) & 1888 (Fb) 337-3 Tagging player on ground = Issued 1888 (Fb) John's estimate is certainly in the ball park but suspect George Myers is an easier subject with closer to 100 copies pose 1, 70 copies pose 2, and 15 copies pose 3. This is merely a guess and reserve the right to answer differently next time. Pose population is far from normal distribution. While 1887 cards, for example, are generally easy there are many outliers (Madden "bat against rock" for example :) ) |
I think John approached this the right way. There are about 2535 poses known and if you assume 50,000 cards that would average out to slightly less than 20 copies/pose, on average. This is based on 50,000 cards being known, which may be high. The three biggest private Old Judge collections have under 8000 cards in aggregate. I would bet the next twenty have under 10,000 cards. After that you are down to a lot of small collections. Very few dealers have much of a stock. If the correct number was 40,000 cards then you are down to a average pose having 16 copies. If I had to hang my hat on a number, I would go with 16, which is in John's original range. Again, there are lots of unique or 2-3 copy poses. All the rarities fall into this category (except for Behel and Brady--they probably have 5-10 copies each, but they are there since they only have one pose).
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Of the 2500+ variations what would be the "range" from least amount of copies for any one pose to the most ? ( 1-100 ?)
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My dad found 3 OJ's "in the wild" (new to the hobby)...early 1980s at an estate auction. I have found only 4 OJ's "in the wild" in probably 30 years of attending thousands of estate sales, garage sales, antique shows and flea markets. 50,000 is probably about right.
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The low number is certainly one. The high number probably represents a common pose that was issued in 1887 and reissued in 1888-1890. I would guess that number is south of 100, but probably not a lot south, perhaps 80-90.
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I still think 50,000 seems high. I wonder how many people on the board have any Old Judges.
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Is it time for a "What is Your OJ Number?" thread?
(Watch out Frank, the N guys are gunning for you!) |
I know some have been graded more than once but here's the numbers from the graders " PSA 3,855 and SGC 8,855 = 12,710 graded.
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Some may remember a similar discussion last year (OJ survival rate of up to 50k cards).
http://www.net54baseball.com/showthr...d.php?t=196113 Quote:
no more than 40 cards from 1887 type A zero numberThis gives a total of 105 which I rounded down to 100 but could easily be less (70-100 would be good guesstimate) for pose 1. The same math was used on pose 2 & 3 and recommend that if you wish to collect all three poses of George Myers that you don't pass on the next pose 3 that surfaces (Fb only). I should note that there are many examples of Fb cards with less than 15 examples. Fb Anson in street clothes may hit 15 while Anson in Uniform is 4 (or 5). Fb Deacon White poses 2 & 8 are maybe around 10 apiece while the other 7 are ~2-5. There are many very tough poses. The largest population of new poses surfaced in 1888 and 1888 is likewise the year with the highest count for single year poses. These are generally very tough cards. These coupled with a handful of Script cards and 1889 California League cards together with the many recently added poses that are cropping variations (with ball / without ball) and you are able to pull the common poses that are known at ~100 copies down to the ~20 copy average. |
Old Judge
Fascinating info. Keep the theories coming.
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I have lived in Central Indiana for about 25 years now. About 20 years ago, I found nine Old Judges at an auction.
They were: Anson, Chicago's Ewing, fielding grounder Rusie, pitching, hands at neck Faatz, Cleveland Klusman, Denver Powell, Sioux City Strauss, Omaha Van Haltren, Chicago, NL Williamson, Chicago, NL About four years ago, I found one OJ common at an auction (I thought it sold for too much but I didn't have the OJ book at that time, so, who knows, it could have been a rare common). Two years ago, there was a find of 17 OJ's in or around Indianapolis. Of course, there was a LARGE find in 2006 by Dave of Dave's Vintage Cards of 215 OJ's originating somewhere in Indianapolis. That is all I have found or heard of, David |
I have a comiskey sliding, and a run of all poses Billy Sundays. It's been fun, but I'm probably happy where I am with them.
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So all OJ owner's could safely say any given card they own is AS scarce if not more so than the T206 Wagner?
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Among the OJ finds that come to mind of better than a hundred cards . . . Dave Levin 2004 Oregon Find – 1400 OJs |
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Uh oh, 20 posts and no cards shown. :) Here's a new arrival (I only have 6 OJs, no HOFers yet).
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Hello again,
I got hung up with scanning my OJ's with my new scanner and forgot the rest, which was the point I was trying to make. So, the point was this; living near Indianapolis, a large, older city which HAD a pro base ball team which HAD cards of its players issued in the OJ series, knowing or hearing about less than 250 OJ's being found in a 25 year time period should say something about the scarcity of the cards. |
Follow-Up
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Joe, I collect the Denver team, which I gather is 1889 only. Can I glean from your post about Myers that roughly 30 copies of the most common Denver poses (e.g. some of the Silch poses) exist? Or would it be lower (e.g. due to the Brooklyn/Denver team change) or perhaps higher? Thanks. Scot |
Scot--Based on my experience, 30 copies is very high for any Denver pose. I would put the correct number in the ballpark 15-20 range for the most common Denver pose.
Joe and I will do some chatting to try to arrive at a "unified" guess to your original question. |
Thank you Jay.
Here is my experience with N172 Denvers. They are tough. At least I have one of each player. :) Pose / Have? / Offered for sale* (since 2007)? Dalrymple 113-1 No None Darymple 113-2 Yes Multiple Dalrymple 113-3 No None Darnbrough 118-1 Yes Multiple Darnbrough 118-2 No One Dolan 126-1 Yes Multiple Dolan 126-2 Yes Multiple Fagan 151-1 Yes One Healy 219-1 Yes One Hoffman 228-1 No None Hoffman 228-2 No None Hoffman 228-3 No None Hoffman 228-4 No None Hoffman 228-5 Yes One Klusman 265-1 No None Klusman 265-2 Yes Multiple Klusman 265-3 Yes Multiple Klusman 265-4 Yes One Klusman 265-5 No None McClellan 304-1 No None McClellan 304-3 Yes Multiple McQuaid 318-1 Yes One McQuaid 318-2 No None McQuaid 318-3 Yes One McQuaid 318-4 Yes One McVey 321-1 No None McVey 321-2 Yes One McVey 321-3 Yes One McVey 321-4 No None McVey 321-5 No None Rowe 393-1 No None Rowe 393-2 Yes One Rowe 393-3 No None Silch 419-1 No One Silch 419-3 Yes Multiple Silch 419-4 Yes Multiple Silch 419-5 Yes One Treadway 463-1 Yes One *What I have seen. Does not include lots. |
N172 Denver
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Here are 318-4 McQuaid Denver and 321-2 McVey Denvers from a lot from the recent Heritage auction. I don't know if they are included in your Denver census or not. When I was going through the lot, I stopped and looked at these and thought,"It seems like I don't see many Denvers that often"...
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Hi RC,
Thanks for the post. Beautiful cards, and I happen to have a copy of those poses. I sometimes miss the big lots, so lots are not be included in my survey. Still interesting to me since that is only the second copy of those poses I have seen offered in the last several years. Scot |
Old judges
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Hi All,
Here are my 5 old judges 2 Kelly's, 2 Toole's and a Denny best regards Ron |
Missing OJ Posts...
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Thanks for starting this thread Scot! I have been missing the OJ discussions... Great knowledge and thanks to all for sharing.
It was mentioned in this thread earlier that OJ's are all more scarce than T206 Wagner, and it prompted me to think about an old thread where we asked Net 54 members to posts a card they own that is more rare/scarce than the T-Wags, and basically after thousands of posts, we realized that the T Wags is not rare and probably not even scarce. If the George Myers 100 pose is common, then the Wagner is common. http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=199179 Now, back to original thread... I checked and I have 28 OJ's and one being an McVey Denver. I collect OJ players that played in Nashville and are featured on a OJ cards... Obviously there are 2 Nashville players that played in California League (Dooley & Kremmeyer), that are impossible, so I will never get to all 30 Nashville players... Informative Thread - |
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The Omahas I used to own. Wish I had kept working at the set.
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Scans
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A hard to find player and a nicer example from my Denvers group.
I love the fact they went to the trouble to block-out the MILWAUKEE team name on Klusman's shirt (reminds me of Topps' practice of airbrushing caps and batting helmets on 1970s cards). |
Wow that klusman is crisp.
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I'd like to see all of the Toad Ramsey OJs out there. There are three known poses with two being batting poses, which I find ridiculous because Toad was a sucky hitter and was always known for his pitching prowess. So my favorite Toad pose is of him pitching.
Whenever I Google Ramsey I come across the Burdick Toads and stare at them for a while. The pitching Burdick Toad has such a clear image, along with a dollop of cured glue at the bottom... http://images.metmuseum.org/CRDImage...e/DP845925.jpg Another one I like to gaze upon is from the Dave's Vintage page, which I guess came from one of the two "finds" from over 10 years ago. It's a sweet one... https://www.gfg.com/LLojfind/oj64.jpg So if you have a Toad of any pose, please post a scan. I'd especially like to see the SGC 70 and SGC 60 examples that show up in the population report search. I'm disappointed that SGC doesn't specify poses in their registry. I'm curious if one of the SGC Toads is the Dave's Vintage Toad. Here is mine, which I've posted before... |
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Unfortunately, I don't remember where it came from.
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I have about 35 Old Judge cards. includes all the 1887 Detroit Wolverines, all poses. I find the Detroit players are difficult to find , especially for me.
Joe |
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Joe, Kevin Cummings and myself have performed some extensive analysis, and the quick and dirty is that we think the best guess as to the number of baseball Old Judges (N172s) in existence, both in private hands and in public venues, is about 35,000. This implies that on average there are about 14 copies per pose. However, the variation around this number is pretty wide. Joe will post more about this, including some year by year details, at a later time.
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Wow, thanks guys for your efforts on this. It really puts OJ scarcity into perspective. Jay/Joe/Richard's book relates so much detail with so much seeming ease that it lulls the casual reader into thinking these cards must be more common than 14 per pose by at least an order of magnitude!
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Here's the SGC70 Ramsey......formerly in my collection.
http://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-QE...0-Ic42/oj2.jpg And 2 of the 3 Brownings I once had...... http://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Eh...browning_1.jpg http://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-M5...browning_2.jpg Sorry the photos aren't a little bigger/better............. |
I also show that I had an SGC60 Ramsey but I don't have a photo of that one...........the Brownings were subsequently SGC graded as a 30 and 40 respectively. Not sure about the third one I had.
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I believe this is your "missing" Ramsey! : ) Kevin |
Not to go off on too much of at agent but the relative small number of individual OJ cards puts into perspective how truly scarce some of the other 19th century issue like Lone Jacks,SF Hess, G&Bs and kbats are.
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Every photographic 19th century set is at the least scarce, and in many cases rare. When you talk about Lone Jacks, G&Bs, Yum Yums, NY K-Bats, Four Base Hits, etc you are talking about sets where even the most common cards have five copies or less.
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Toad update
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Thanks for posting the SGC 60 & 70 Ramsey photos, guys.
So here are all the N172 Toad Ramsey cards I have seen photos of so far. If anyone can share more examples, please post the photos. There are two other SGC-graded Toads (poses unknown) that I haven't seen, one graded 'Authentic' and another 'SGC 20'. There are also two PSA Toads graded 'Authenic', both of the 379-1 variety. It's possible some of the photos of the cards currently featured in this post were subsequently graded, aside from the Burdick museum Toads of course. Updated with 1888 "Trimmed Toad" pitching pose. Thanks, Joe G. & John D. Also, it was recommended that I separate the 1888 and 1889 Toads so they aren't all jumbled together, so I did. |
So I stumbled upon images of 2 more pitching Toads (379-3) from old auctions. I added them in the above post. I am waiting on the image of yet another trimmed example of that card, which would bring the current pitching pose Toad total to nine. I'm finding more than I though I would.
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Anyone have any OJ Chicago Maroons to trade or sell ?
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I have three in a BST ad
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Dave, good start on collecting Ramsey images. All three poses were issued in both 1888 (Fb) and 1889 (Fc). Fc is typically more common than Fb but you are showing a nearly equal split . . .
Pose 1 - 1 Fb (last card) and 3 Fc Pose 2 - Fc Pose 3 - 5 Fb and 4 Fc Total of 6 Fb, 8 Fc I suspect your 1:9 ratio between pose 2 & 3 is a bit skewed. The Cartolphilic listing for pose 2 shows one Fb and two different Fc variations (Louisville and Louisvilles). I suspect none of those variations are unique, there are more cards out there. I'd say Ramsey is among the easier Louisville players. |
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"Someday I'll get better individual scans". said John, knowing full well he will probably just take a group shot with the three new cards added in and never fulfill that promise. |
Considering that I happen to have 42 Corcoran cards, and coupled with John's 41, I should think an estimate of over 100 for the most common is quite reasonable.:)
Brian |
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I knew there had to be another connoisseur of fine Corcorans around |
Okay . . . from the above posts of the N172 player collections it's pretty evident that some of the poses of a given player are extremely difficult whereas others are relatively pedestrian. (That's my experience with the Denvers guys too).
As a (primarily but not exclusively) T206 guy, I think the N172 focus needs to shift away from player scarcity, and toward pose scarcity. It's like the difference between a Green Cobb and a Red Cobb, only far more pronounced! |
Scot-if more people collected poses that would make sense, but very few people do. The VAST majority of Old Judge collectors care more about the aesthetics of the pose than its' rarity.
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I get it Jay -- and thanks for taking the time to respond.
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And then a steamroller ran over them just before falling off a cliff into the ocean
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Brian |
The N172 is so fascinating to me. I sit and look at my T206 collection and wish I had just gone ahead and started collecting OJ six years ago instead.....I would probably have less than a dozen cards by now but how cool it would be :)
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How anyone who loves baseball wouldn't love looking at N172s, I don't know? When these gems have great clarity and focus they can look almost 3D. And when they have any back damage they can look like that and grade a 1!!:eek:
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Scarcity of 1888 Milwaukee Old Judges
Since this thread has been revived I thought I would take the opportunity to add a little interesting information, especially for Milwaukee collectors. BTW, for the uninitiated, Fb and Fa are two types of 1888 Old Judge cards.
Last week, an 1888 Schenkel-Milwaukee Old Judge card showed up on eBay. It was the first known 1888 Schenkel. Because of that I took a quick look at 1888 Milwaukee cards (all of which are Fb). There are twenty players who played for Milwaukee in 1888 who have Old Judge cards. Two of these players, Winkleman and Howes played for both Minneapolis and Milwaukee that year. Each has Minneapolis Fa cards, but no known Milwaukee Fb cards. Five other players who played for Milwaukee in 1888 (Crossley, Ferson, Griffith, McAleer, Walsh) have no Fb card that is known. Seven of the players on the team are players who are very scarce (Cusick, Davin, Forster, Horner, Pettee, Stephens, Warner). Struck has a card with his name, but picturing Straus. Otherwise, he is unknown in the set. Two of the players (Fuller, Schenkel) are common players, but their Fb cards are quite scarce; witness the fact that the Schenkel was unlisted until the copy found last week appeared. That leaves Straus, Lowe and Maskrey. Maskrey has two poses with a Fb cards, all scarce; only one is listed in The Cartophilic Society Listing (CSL). Straus has three poses listed on Fb's, which are all scarce ( I have my doubts about the existence of pose two). Lowe has three Fb poses listed in the CSL, although one is called an Fb script. I'm not sure what that is--possibly an error. The other two poses are quite scarce. Where does that get us--32 or 33 Fb Milwaukee cards, and not an easy one in the group. I'm not sure why these Milwaukee cards are so tough, but they certainly are. If you find one you have hit an Old Judge home run. Sent from my iPhone |
The Fb Milwaukee cards are indeed scarce, close to California League territory, as are some of the other Fb cards. If you are after a team, player, or pose that is only known as an Fb you could spend a lifetime waiting for one to surface. When I moved to Iowa 8 years ago I thought it might be interesting to obtain an example team card of all the Western Association teams from 1888 and 1889 and quickly realized that was a tough task. Most of the Western Association cards from 1888 are Fb and rarely surface. A single example from Milwaukee, St. Paul, and other teams may not surface for years. Fantastic pick-up on the Schenkel Jay! Finding an example from the Chicago Maroons, a recognized tough team, was actually much easier than the other teams (a couple Chicago & Des Moines players seem more available than others). Even outside of Western Association there are a lot of very tough Fb cards, think Anson in Uniform, McGreachery (or the other half of the Deacon White poses), 3rd Harry Wright pose, etc.
Regarding Fb script, they do exist. I suspect these came about when some of the Fb poses were created later in the year, after the negatives had been modified for cabinet cards. Here are two examples. |
Of course, you are right Joe. I forgot about the Anson, but I don't recall ever seeing the Donnelly. The Fb script cards must be really tough also. Thanks for the input!
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always looking
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I have one "Old Judge" in my type collection. I picked this player because he was on the original 1903 Highlander team. I'm always looking in the bigger auctions for another pose to compliant and compare with my card. love the history of the cards, has a wonderful energy just holding one !!!!
https://www.flickr.com/photos/151843924@N04/albums |
My Milwaukee OJ collection currently is up to 22 different players/poses. I haven't been fussy about condition so the hunt has been a little easier, although it has been over 3 years since my last addition.
If you don't mind me asking what do Fa and Fb stand for? And if you'd like to check them out I have all of them scanned on my website linked below. |
I felt like throwing in my totals.
I sit at 28 plus 1 N173 of Al Buckenberger. Reading through this thread yesterday and today has revitalized my interest in OJs. Now to track down a few more for my Columbus base ball connection set. Only 88 more player/team combos to find. I may even start on a 2nd pose of the Columbus Solons players. |
John--Great cards! Fa and Fb represent two series of Old Judge cards issued by Goodwin and Co in 1888. They are characterized by the first two lines in the text at the bottom being "Old Judge/ Cigarettes". The difference is the type size. If you have a copy of the Old Judge book it is all explained and illustrated in there. If not, in the current Sterling Auction, Lot 11 is a nice clear Fb.
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I did a little reading about the 1888 Milwaukee team in Dennis Pajot's great book " The Rise of Milwaukee Baseball". Most of the info contained below is from that book.
1888 was the first year of the Western Association. Milwaukee, one of the founding members, hired Jim Hart as its' manager. The following was the team put together to start the season. 1B: Andy Cusick--Came from Phil NL 2B: Pat Pettee--Came from Salem, Eastern League SS: Tom Forster--Was on Milwaukee NWL team in 1887 3B: Joe Strauss-- ". " LF: Bobby Lowe--Came from Eau Claire in NWL CF: David Davin--Came from Portland RF: Leech Maskrey--Was on Milwaukee NWL team in 1887 C: Frank Mills-- " " P: Alex Ferson--Came from Manchester, New Eng. League P: Jack Horner: Came from Hamilton, Int'l League P: John Struck: Came from Little Rock, SW League P: Bill Shenkel: Was on Milwaukee NWL team in 1887 Sub: William Fuller: Came from Kalamazoo Sub: Ed Warner: Came from Hamilton, Int'l League Prior to 1888 none of these players had an Old Judge card. In mid-May Alex Ferson was released and pitcher George Stephens was added from the Hiawatha Club of Detroit. In early June David Davin was released for excessive drinking and pitcher Henry Heup was picked up from the local Milwaukee Welcomes. Davin's month plus with Milwaukee earned him three Old Judge poses, all extremely rare today. In mid-June Milwaukee added Jimmy McAleer from Memphis of the Southern League. Although McAleer has no known Milwaukee card, he earned five Old Judge poses as a member of Cleveland in 1889. In late-June, Milwaukee made what turned out to be a great trade. They gave John Struck and $1000 for a pitcher from Bloomington, IL, future HOFer Clark Griffith. Griffith has no known 1888 Milwaukee card; Struck has one with his name, but Joe Strauss' image. When we did the Old Judge book we let the image on the card determine whose card it was; owners of the Yum Yum"Anson" may disagree with this methodology.They may consider that Struck has a card in the Old Judge set, albeit a so far unique one. During July, Henry Heup and Andy Cusick were released. Cusick's time with the team earned him five Old Judge poses, all major rarities. In early August, with the team struggling, Hart made quite a few moves. They released Pat Pettee, Tom Forster, Ed Warner and his prom date Jack Horner, and George Stephens. Added were William Crossley (C) from Davenport, John McCabe (2B) from Davenport, Bert Wilson (P) from Fremont in Ohio, Albert Fisher (SS) from Crawfordsville, and George Winkleman (P), William Hawes (1B) and Joe Walsh (SS), all from the folded team in Minneapolis. Stephens had four Old Judge poses from his time in Milwaukee, all rare, even though he neither started nor ended the season with them. Horner and Warner both received some Old Judge poses. Horner appeared for New Haven in 1889 and earned some team change Old Judge variations, all more common than his Milwaukee cards, but still pretty scarce. Ed Warner, even though he wandered through baseball with his friend and battery mate Warner, has no known New Haven cards; his Milwaukee cards are very rare. Tom Forster appeared in several Old Judge issues. As a member of the Metropoloisns he had an 1886 Spotted Tie. He has a few scarce Milwaukee cards in 1888, and a team change card with Hartford in 1889. Winkelman and Hawes had 1888 Minneapolis cards, but no known Milwaukee cards. Walsh earned his first cards as a member of Omaha in 1889. The last player move of the year was the release of Albert Fisher in late-August. I find this chronology interesting as it puts some history to the cards. Hopefully, some Milwaukee fans will find it interesting too. |
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Here is an image of the unique John Struck card.
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Here is a cabinet of the 1888 Milwaukee team, clearly taken at the start of the season.
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The back of the cabinet features a home schedule for the 1888 season.
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p.s. neat Milwaukee items!
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Here is a cheat sheet I've posted previously on the old board to help study the differences between Fa, Fb, and Fc. Note how you cannot trust the printed copyrights on the card. They sometimes match the year the card is issued, sometimes match the date of the negative, sometimes match neither. For example, an 1889 Fc card might have an 1888 copyright but be based on an 1887 photoshoot. |
Jay, thanks for sharing the Milwaukee information and the rare Straus/Struck card.
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