Analysis of PWCC Vintage Auction 10/13/19

[Rhotchkiss]

The vintage portion of PWCC's October auction ended last night. I did not bid. However, there were a few cards that I was otherwise interested in, and I did follow the auction to see where final bidding on those cards ended up. Below is a list of cards that I followed in last night's PWCC auction that were also in an earlier/previous and recent PWCC auction OR were recently sold in other auctions/places. The cards listed below compare last night's result to the previous sale of the same exact card.

I am sure there are many other cards auctioned last night that were previously and recently auctioned by PWCC or another auction house; and I followed a few other cards that were not recently and previously sold before last night (e.g., T206 Red Cobb PSA 7 and T206 Wajo Pitching PSA 5). However, the list below is only of cards that I followed (and fit my collection) and were also recently sold by PWCC or elsewhere. I state this because, although I certainly have an opinion on this matter, I have not gone looking for cards to make a point.

Below I list the card I was following, then last night's sales price compared to what the card sold for before that and the date (and by what auction house/media). At the bottom, are pictures of each card listed with the price, as shown on VCP.

What are your thoughts about the results listed below? And please do not let this thread devolve into a series of angry rants about how everyone (or me) is crooked, everyone (or me) is dumb, etc.

PWCC & PWCC Sales

T206 Mathewson White Cap, PSA 5
PWCC - 10/13/19: $1,934.99
PWCC - 8/11/19: $2,228.00 (13.15% reduction)

T206 Cobb Green Portrait, SGC 4
PWCC - 10/13/19: $11,356
PWCC - 1/13/19: $13,099 (13.3% reduction)

T206 Lajoie Portrait, PSA 5
PWCC - 10/13/19: $2,376
PWCC - 11/7/18: $2,606 (8.82% reduction)

T206 Waddell Portrait, PSA 6
PWCC - 10/13/19: $2,176
PWCC - 7/8/18: $2,964 (26.59% reduction)

E93 Cobb, PSA 3
PWCC - 10/13/19: $3,739
PWCC - 10/14/18: $3,518 (6.28% increase)

E120 Ruth, PSA 5
PWCC - 10/13/19: $14,336
PWCC - 2/5/18: $14,771 (2.95% reduction)

PWCC and Other AH Sales

T206 Walsh Portrait, PSA 8
PWCC - 10/13/19: $8,300
Heritage - 9/20/18: $9,600 (13.54% reduction)

E105 Young, PSA 5
PWCC - 10/13/19: $2,827
Ebay BIN - 3/22/18: $3,250 (13% reduction)

[oldjudge]

Looks like PWCC on the decline. Good thing we have BlackJadedWolf to show us the way.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Looks like PWCC on the decline. Good thing we have BlackJadedWolf to show us the way.

Need way more than 8 cards to draw any conclusions.

[mechanicalman]

I always appreciate someone using real data to spark discussion as opposed to just another emotional rant. That said, I think some of the decline from this limited set could be explained by time of year. In the past few years I’ve tracked cards, it appears there’s a little dip in prices as we get into Q4. That might account for a few of those percentage points.

[MULLINS5]

Addition of sales tax and FBI involvement sparking fear of shill bids probably are in play

[egbeachley]

All things equal, a decline should be expected for the same card being sold a short time after prior sale. The winning bidder is no longer a bidder (theoretically).

[t206fanatic]

Originally Posted by egbeachley

All things equal, a decline should be expected for the same card being sold a short time after prior sale. The winning bidder is no longer a bidder (theoretically).

these are my thoughts as well.

I do love a good data driven post with pictures though!

[Jgrace]

Originally Posted by egbeachley

All things equal, a decline should be expected for the same card being sold a short time after prior sale. The winning bidder is no longer a bidder (theoretically).

I think this is a big part of it.

Did the first buyers think they were just getting a good deal? I’m assuming they were intending to flip.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by egbeachley

All things equal, a decline should be expected for the same card being sold a short time after prior sale. The winning bidder is no longer a bidder (theoretically).

This, and newly enacted sales tax probably account for most of those declines.

As Peter said, it's way too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions. If it continues in this direction through 2020, and a greater array of cards exhibit similar reductions, then you have some far better evidence.