2019 National Report - Sneak Peak, DAY 1 and DAY recaps - UPDATED 8/2 PM

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OK folks, as in past years I'll give a daily run down of my time at the National. I'm a little tired tonight, so I'll add some pictures tomorrow. I'll update each day, so you'll get a chance to scroll through and see a lot of what I saw.

As a quick background, I honestly collect just about everything. Pre-war, 50s-60s graded, modern graded, autographs and memorabilia, presidential items, pennants, bobbleheads, unopened packs and boxes, baseball, basketball, football, a little hockey, boxing, Olympics, I hit a lot of categories. It's pretty tough to have a booth that doesn't have something I'd be interested in.

This is my 5th consecutive National, and 8th overall. I have to admit, location wise I still prefer Chicago as there are restaurants/bars and things pretty close to the convention center. It's all within a block or two.

From a layout standpoint, though, I don't like Chicago very much. The room is very big, and they put all the corporate booths in the middle. This makes it nearly impossible to set a plan by row or column to walk the show in a manner to ensure you hit all the tables. As a result, I think I walked 3-4 rows today, as there were a couple dealers I've bought from the past 4 years that I wanted to see today and had to take them out of order. It's only 4 hours on Preview Day, which seems like it should be a lot but it really isn't.

At first impression, there were some nice cards to see today, and I only covered maybe 20% of the room. For those who have followed my past reports, though, I ALWAYS seem to struggle on Day 1 and this year was no different. It seems to me the front part of the room every year must be the "old timers", the folks who have been setting up for years and so they get priority in order of picking table space (?). There are also TONS of auction houses, more on that later.

Every year, that front section sets the initial tone of the day, and I have to say going forward I may just skip this group and come to them last. I won't bore you with tons and tons of this stuff, but I'll pick a couple to make a point. DEALERS TAKE NOTE - if you continue to price your cards like this, you should understand that THOUSANDS and THOUSANDS of potential dollars are just walking away from you. I asked one dealer about a 34 Goudey #37 Gehrig SGC 50 - he quotes me $3400. This card has a VCP of $2300 from a May sale on eBay, last three sales are reportedly $2500 or less. It may have been nice for the grade, but it's a still a 50 (4), so it's not THAT nice. It's SO FAR AWAY from a reasonable start, I didn't even bother to counter - honestly I didn't say anything other than "thank you" and handed the card back and walked on. T206 Dark Cap Mathewson PSA 4 - VCP around $900, price quote $1750! Another table the price quote was $1650. Mid grade Dark Caps are not especially rare, and everything I'm talking about was a normal/common back. Last one, asked about probably 5-6 1968 Nolan Ryan PSA 7s - maybe once with exceptional centering - VCP $1184, cheapest initial quote $1500 and highest was $1900!!!! I guess my 8 is worth a fair bit more than I thought it was if these are worth 30-50% more than VCP for a pretty commonly sold card.

As someone who sets up as a dealer at shows in Houston and does a lot of selling on eBay, I understand the higher ask expecting a negotiation. But as I've said before and will say again - there's a limit. If you price it TOO HIGH, most people don't have anywhere to go from there. I heard from a couple folks today they didn't know what to ask for their card but knew I had looked them up on VCP and eBay. When I reported a half down sales prices, they told me those were all too cheap. Well then why didn't you buy them?!?!? Markets are what markets are, and there are still a LARGE NUMBER OF DEALERS who are not interested in selling cards. I don't know exactly why they're here, but they definitely aren't here to sell cards and I would be shocked if they actually profit enough to actually pay for the space.

A lot of dealers are starting their prices at least 20-25% over recent sales, expecting a negotiation. Some are pricing in cash and credit card prices, which I think is a decent idea. However, I'm also surprised HOW MANY DEALERS are still not accepting Paypal or Venmo or similar payments. I honestly just don't believe there are that many people walking around the show with $10-20k in cash in their pockets, so how the heck are they supposed to pay for these $9k card if you won't accept some form of electronic transfer/payment? I don't think I was quite as in tune to this in previous years, but it was really surprising to me today that so many dealers are not accepting of that form of payment at this point. I'm not talking credit cards, either. I'm talking friends/family type payments. It just makes sense, but it's still not "base case" for a big portion of the room.

I was ultimately able to buy one card today, though. I'm on the last 10 cards of a fully graded 1954 Topps baseball set and have been in the market for a nice Banks for what seems like a while. Dealer first quoted me $900 cash/$1000 credit on a PSA 5. We ultimately settled at $850, I think we were both pleased where it landed. That was the last "big" I needed for my set, so for me it was a good start to the week.

I visited a couple other dealers I know toward the end, and will hopefully have something to report on those interactions tomorrow. I do think I'm going to be able to get a trade or two done, but it was the groundwork of meeting and working with these guys for the last 3-4 years that's making it possible now.

I can't say that any specific thing was "hot", but again it was only 4 hours and I didn't see much of the room. I think tomorrow I'll be able to get a better sense of that.

Like I said, I will post some pics tomorrow. For now, I could use some sleep. No real surprises today, but to get a card off my want list was a nice start, and hopefully a sign of things to come.

Catch up with you again tomorrow night.