Printing More Money vs. High Card Prices

[Leon]

I have been wondering about a question I have so thought I would put it out here. If this gets political it will be locked. That is not what is intended. This affects both sides of the aisle.

Do yawl think all of the money being printed by the treasury, and the many trillions being doled out, has anything to do with card prices? It almost seems like there is too much money in the economy but I am far from an economist. A freaking 3.5 of this card just went for over 20k. So much for me getting an upgrade. LOL

[rjackson44]

Hi leon dont think so .But the market is insane ,,im selling all my labrons ,,people have gone nuts ,,its insane.

[Seven]

Leon,

I'm by no means an expert, while I do think the stimulus checks shouldered a little bit of the blame early on, I'm thinking now it's more because people are looking to cards as an investment opportunity and big money is getting thrown into the Hobby by people who would normally spend it on other things.

We still have portions of the Nation who do not feel safe traveling, or going out of there house, but still earning an income, the end result, I think is that money gets poured into the hobby. Combine that with the fact people see rising prices as an "investment opportunity" so new money starts entering from people who don't really know what a reasonable price is for a card and we get this result.

We also have the issue of card prices shooting up on various older players that are still alive because people want to capitalize on their eventual demise. Look what is happening to Mays' cards ever since Aaron died.

I have not been in this hobby for nearly as long as half the people on this forum, but frankly I do not think it's sustainable, at all. I do think some of the high end Vintage stars will maintain their value, but we see some sort of correction eventually.

[frankbmd]

Yawl is a sailboat.

[rats60]

I agree that all the printing of money has caused prices to rise. I noticed prices on modern cards taking off when stimulus checks hit and now some of that is flowing into vintage. Also, people not being able to spend money in recreational areas frees up money for cards. If you didn't spend money on season tickets or vacations, why not put it in cards. It has also created a volatile stock market and people are looking to diversify into other investments like cards. There are plenty of influencers who got in at floor levels that are really pushing cards as investments.

[packs]

I don't know if I understand how stimulus checks are related. Personally, I've received less than $2,000 the entire pandemic. I don't see how that would open a door for me to buy a 20K card.

[dealme]

Originally Posted by rats60

I agree that all the printing of money has caused prices to rise. I noticed prices on modern cards taking off when stimulus checks hit and now some of that is flowing into vintage. Also, people not being able to spend money in recreational areas frees up money for cards. If you didn't spend money on season tickets or vacations, why not put it in cards. It has also created a volatile stock market and people are looking to diversify into other investments like cards. There are plenty of influencers who got in at floor levels that are really pushing cards as investments.

I think this is really a good point. While many people have been been greatly impacted financially by the pandemic (or more accurately the response to it), many others have not. Those that have not been negatively affected by the situation likely have disposable income that in the past was spent on tickets, vacations, etc. Some of that disposable income is now being spent on cards. Plus, at least with some of the higher dollar examples, it would seem that cards are now a trendy place to park ones investment dollar.

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Yawl is a sailboat.

It ain't a boat in Texas. LOL.

I think if the world ever gets back to normal and people start traveling and going out again regularly it will slow down some. We for example cancelled a Disney trip and another vacation to the tune of about ten grand. People are bored and cards are a good distraction and can be done from the comfort and safety of home. I also think there is a faction out there of rich folks making it cool to invest in cards. After the dust settles it'll be like any other collectable market and a lot of folks will move on to something else much like the junk card era or other collectable/investment booms. Vintage will always hold value especially the really cherry stuff but I think in time the hobby will correct itself and this current insanity will run it's course.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Wimberleycardcollector

It ain't a boat in Texas. LOL.

A yawl in Texas is definitely not a "ketch".

But you can "catch" a yawl with a stinkpot. Trust me.

[MooseDog]

Short answer to Leon... not directly. However the easy money is somewhat related as I do believe that the stock market is more likely tied to the rise in card prices. There are an awful lot of people in the US that make far, far more money and have far greater assets than they or their families will EVER be able to spend. Nobody NEEDS $1B, let alone hundreds of millions. At some point it's just a way to keep score and the whole concept of money as reality goes away.

Some with unlimited resources just want stuff and will outbid anyone else...well, because they can. And it only takes two to tango in an auction.

Imagine if Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos decided they wanted a certain high-end marquee card!

I also believe there is a certain level of "pump and dump" action going on.

My 2 cents.

FWIW I'm in the bottom 50% statistically, and got both stimulus payments of which 100% went to pay bills.

[iwantitiwinit]

Originally Posted by MooseDog

Short answer to Leon... not directly. However the easy money is somewhat related as I do believe that the stock market is more likely tied to the rise in card prices. There are an awful lot of people in the US that make far, far more money and have far greater assets than they or their families will EVER be able to spend. Nobody NEEDS $1B, let alone hundreds of millions. At some point it's just a way to keep score and the whole concept of money as reality goes away.



Some with unlimited resources just want stuff and will outbid anyone else...well, because they can. And it only takes two to tango in an auction.

Imagine if Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos decided they wanted a certain high-end marquee card!

I also believe there is a certain level of "pump and dump" action going on.

My 2 cents.

FWIW I'm in the bottom 50% statistically, and got both stimulus payments of which 100% went to pay bills.

In my opinion this is 100pct accurate. It's not individuals getting stimulus checks, it's the new super wealthy that have significantly increased in number as a result of crypto price surge, the proliferation of spac issuance that instantly enriches the sponsor, real estate strength, etc. They are buying immense quantities of hard assets from the extremely rare to the limited quantity luxury items. Stories of individuals buying a ferrari dealership out of their entire inventory, super yacht shortages, low if non existent waterfront properties in prime locations. This will result in hyper inflation and will filter down into what was previously thought of as things that were considered available though somewhat limited in quantity to those making a decent living but were not wealthy. Things as simple as say lobsters (dont laugh), or BMWs, relatively fine wine etc. It is all going to be bought up.

[packs]

I haven't seen a very good explanation for why a person with no previous interest in cards would suddenly decide they needed a 1953 Topps Satchel Paige.

I really don't see why there is a POV that the uninitiated are driving up prices. A 52 mantle, a T206 Wagner, sure, those kinds of cards will appeal to the same layman that Picasso does to people who don't collect art.

What drives a guy to buy a 1950 Bowman Jackie Robinson?

[rats60]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

In my opinion this is 100pct accurate. It's not individuals getting stimulus checks, it's the new super wealthy that have significantly increased in number as a result of crypto price surge, the proliferation of spac issuance that instantly enriches the sponsor, real estate strength, etc. They are buying immense quantities of hard assets from the extremely rare to the limited quantity luxury items. Stories of individuals buying a ferrari dealership out of their entire inventory, super yacht shortages, low if non existent waterfront properties in prime locations. This will result in hyper inflation and will filter down into what was previously thought of as things that were considered available though somewhat limited in quantity to those making a decent living but were not wealthy. Things as simple as say lobsters (dont laugh), or BMWs, relatively fine wine etc. It is all going to be bought up.

Why can't it be both?

[dio]

Yes.

where can you park your money

real estate - covid killed a lot of landlord(lower rent, not able to pay rent, therefore can't pay mortgage), so not looking into getting more

stock - overprice , it keep going up just cuz of money keep pouring in

cash - no interest at the bank

Card - at least something we enjoy, stock if it drop 50% , it's just number, a ruth drop 50% you still hold and enjoy the ruth right. and I know in 10-15 years most likely will worth more than what you pay

[chadeast]

Originally Posted by Leon

I have been wondering about a question I have so thought I would put it out here. If this gets political it will be locked. That is not what is intended. This affects both sides of the aisle.

Do yawl think all of the money being printed by the treasury, and the many trillions being doled out, has anything to do with card prices? It almost seems like there is too much money in the economy but I am far from an economist. A freaking 3.5 of this card just went for over 20k. So much for me getting an upgrade. LOL

And so much for me hoping to buy yours after said upgrade! Watching whats happened to the 33 Goudey Ruths over the past two months has been pretty amazing, & REA last night felt like the end of my dreams... for now. Big regrets on my part just missing out on two 144s in major auctions in December In the non-Ruth realm, i was able to fill in quite a few holes in my ‘33 Goudey set last night.

[Yoda]

I*have to believe that the value of the dollar will have to erode longterm. The decision way back in 1948 at the Bretton/ Woods Conference to make the dollar the world's reserve currency was probably fine until Nixon went off the backing of gold in 1971, and all bets were off. Quantitative easing and Covid relief packages have left the country flooded in liquidity and the repayment of all these bonds plus interest will reflate even more. Let's face it the Federal Reserve's actions is almost a Ponzi scheme in that new investors are needed to keep the party going. I don't think we are at the stage where the prices of oil and gold are soon to be denominated in Euros, Yuan or Yen but do feel the days of dollar dominance are fading.
All of that just means that there should be ample surpluses of money for those who have some to buy sports' cards. Right now it is a wild and heady environment for those those who can play the game. My God, 90K for the Goudey #53 Ruth in last night's REA auction just seems surreal

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by chadeast

And so much for me hoping to buy yours after said upgrade! Watching whats happened to the 33 Goudey Ruths over the past two months has been pretty amazing, & REA last night felt like the end of my dreams... for now. Big regrets on my part just missing out on two 144s in major auctions in December In the non-Ruth realm, i was able to fill in quite a few holes in my ‘33 Goudey set last night.

Awesome card Leon - that batting pose is a classic!

We all know the fed/fiscal stimulus is the main reason for where stocks and cards are valued. Conceptually, it's not about whose getting checks. It's about how the checks are recycled (velocity) back in our economy. Say the $600 is used to pay for groceries or Pokemon cards. That cash is used to support the business selling those goods, who in turn pay the employees to sell those good, who in turn... Stimulus check keep our economy "moving" and bridges us to we normalize (whatever that may be).

More people are employed. At the lower-end, less people are in needs to selling their assets (stocks/cards) to make ends meet, which creates the demand/supply imbalance towards MOAR. At the upper end, that economic activity is supporting the cashflows of our cashflow producing assets, supporting the inflated values of our income producing assets. Until risk assets are valued using an almost risk free rate.... which is not sustainable.

And in a world where there is no alternative (TINA) to stocks because the Fed has pushed us higher in the risk spectrum for yield (as evidence by a 3.5% yield for high yield index!), the marginal difference for yield is not worth it (picking up pennies in front of a steam roller), and more people start looking for alternative places to store their wealth, whether it be art, Gold, Bitcoin or cards. There is no coincidence today that Bitcoin is down ~10% and Gold is up ~2%. People that are running out of Bitcoin are not putting it into stocks, they already predisposed with an alternative mindset for why they are in Bitcoin in the first place. But where did they get this money???

I put an earlier pose, that the Fed increased its balance sheet from 3T in 2013, to 4T in 2018 and not 7.4+T..... so yes, that money is going somewhere.

This is separate from speculation, which is also in our industry and is cause for concern short term, but indifferent long term.

As it relates to the $90K ruth, one sale does not make the market. It sets the price, but only at that time. In times like this, if you can't axe the bid, then value your stuff based on an average of recent sales...

[dio]

And
PSA 3 52 topps mantle way off center for 90k

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by dio

And
PSA 3 52 topps mantle way off center for 90k

I believe those are asking prices? Have they sold for that anyway? Considering what some of this junk is selling for, that is still a bargain, IMHO.

A PSA 3 is a PSA 3 is a 3 is a 3. Still a nice collectible card with many fine attributes, even if "way off center". Eddie, as in Anal Eddie. You wouldn't want my off center 3 and I wouldn't sell it to you. Not even for 9-0.

[dio]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

I believe those are asking prices? Have they sold for that anyway? Considering what some of this junk is selling for, that is still a bargain, IMHO.

A PSA 3 is a PSA 3 is a 3 is a 3. Still a nice collectible card with many fine attributes, even if "way off center". Eddie, as in Anal Eddie. You wouldn't want my off center 3 and I wouldn't sell it to you. Not even for 9-0.

Agree, a 3 is a 3. I have no problem with off center cards, and i owned a few OC, i find great value for them.
that's the sold price, we'll see how heritage/goldin auction ends for these 52 mantle to get a reality of the current value

[jchcollins]

Current government policy with what is being printed and distributed related to COVID has an effect, but I don't think it's the cause. The rest of the bubble I believe will be cyclical as we've seen historically with cards since the 1980's, and for those of you that can remember - likely longer than that. What I don't know whether or not is / is not on the level is all these reports of investment portfolios getting interested in both modern and vintage cards. If that's really true, then it could be a game changer if not temporary.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by Leon

I have been wondering about a question I have so thought I would put it out here. If this gets political it will be locked. That is not what is intended. This affects both sides of the aisle.

Do yawl think all of the money being printed by the treasury, and the many trillions being doled out, has anything to do with card prices? It almost seems like there is too much money in the economy but I am far from an economist. A freaking 3.5 of this card just went for over 20k. So much for me getting an upgrade. LOL

Well, my #144 is still in transit to his new home, and, while I do miss him, I do have a Net54 label pin and T-Shirts displaying that same Babe Ruth image (along with a reprint and scans of my 'ex'-card)...that will have to suffice until Leon comes up with another way to share that image with the rest of the world...and I'm on board with a pre-order.

[Santo10Fan]

Originally Posted by Leon

I have been wondering about a question I have so thought I would put it out here. If this gets political it will be locked. That is not what is intended. This affects both sides of the aisle.

Do yawl think all of the money being printed by the treasury, and the many trillions being doled out, has anything to do with card prices?

Leon, there were multiple events that happened in the past year that I feel fortuitously mingled to simply get more people involved in the hobby, thereby organically stimulating a market that was undervalued. A hobby that is considered a safe haven by all stripes of investors.

The first round of stimulus back in April was timed right for the hobby because, quite simply, people were stuck in their homes looking for...a hobby! It helped that some in the middle class who never got laid off got $2-4K and maybe bought that Goudey Ruth or Aaron rookie they'd been thinking about for years. Or they bought a 2020 Topps Chrome hobby box. Also, card breakers on Youtube went nuclear because their format was perfect for the pandemic.

Increased media coverage during a historical crossroads may have contributed to the most recent bump, from mid-january to current.

Auction price headlines and the unfortunate and sudden passing of our giant Hank Aaron came right around the same time that a sea of what I propose is "dark" stimulus money was printed: the Gamestop stock cash out. On Feb. 1, this stock crashed and many, many of the sellers made profits. And it's a brand new generation of collectors. The common story I think was that you bought in at $11 and sold at $300. This injected new blood into our hobby because if you look at the timing, I believe it's clear that a lot of that money is now in our hobby.

My theory is this new generation's buying started with mint condition rookie cards of all sports, anything Ruth, then T206 portraits. There's others I'm sure but these were the most noticeable to me. Stuff that had been on ebay for years (e.g. Dean's) was bought at asking price.

Bitcoin reached its all time high back in December, which freed anyone who may have been stuck with it since its last big crash in 2018. If you bought last summer and cashed out there were healthy profits to be made. Its $46,000 per coin as of this writing; in March it was $5K.

In summary, I feel the traditional government stimulus was just one of many reasons new money has found its' way into our hobby. Students of history will recognize the uncanny collision of circumstances that make these moments abstract and somewhat hard to process as they occur. And there is evidence of an overall V-shaped recovery on the horizon which could make a strong bear position attractive to these new collectors.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/05/04/br...d-the-pandemic
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-GME/
https://www.npr.org/2021/01/27/96125...red-in-atlanta
https://www.tmz.com/2020/12/17/kurt-...-million-rare/
https://www.tmz.com/2021/01/14/micke...n-sets-record/
https://www.ebay.com/sch/m.html?_nkw..._cards&_sop=16
https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/21/b...omic-boom.html