Fuzzy auction logic/math

[Fred]

There was a baseball card for sale on ebay with an opening bid of $850 (+$12.50 s/h). This same card was sold by an auction house for $990 ($825 +20% buyer’s premium, the total did not include s/h) less than two months ago.

The ebay auction closed for the opening bid of $850. The only bid came in the final 10 seconds of bidding.

Can someone explain why a bidder would purchase the card from the auction house and then take a loss on it in less than 2 months? Is this a common business practice? The card sold really didn't fit into the type of cards the seller has typically sold in the past year.

Just seems strange that in the past year this ebay seller sold over 300 items of which only one was more expensive than the card they just sold for $850. Most of the other sales were under $100. Sounds like a pretty lousy business model if someone wants to buy stuff from a major AH that has lots of exposure and then try to sell it on ebay shortly after buying it from the AH.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Judging by the fact that he doesn't normally operate in that arena I would guess that he gambled and lost, or he got saddled with a lot he didn't think he was actually going to win and wanted to cut his losses. Unless there's a pattern I think you're reading too much into the situation.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Judging by the fact that he doesn't normally operate in that arena I would guess that he gambled and lost, or he got saddled with a lot he didn't think he was actually going to win and wanted to cut his losses. Unless there's a pattern I think you're reading too much into the situation.

I was basically going to say the same thing. This is not uncommon. Especially with active players. Someone buys a card because they think the player is going to have a breakout season, or win something, or just believes that card will go up in value because of some particular reason. Then, when it doesn't happen, they cut their losses and sell the card. I did the exact same thing with Chris Paul rookie cards. As soon as Giannis hurt his knee in the playoffs, I hopped onto eBay and bought Chris Paul RCs because I thought they had a high likelihood of winning the NBA championship. But Giannis came back, despite hyperextending his knee, and played like an absolute beast. So I put the Chris Paul cards back up for sale at a loss. I took a gamble and it didn't pay off. But I have no desire to own Chris Paul cards.

[Jay Wolt]

Apparently he was hoping for multiple bids & just got the 1 bid

[Fred]

Card was a 19th century cabinet. The seller doesn't appear to sell "older" cards as part of their inventory. Just seems odd.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/40320280570...rdt=true&rt=nc

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Fred

Card was a 19th century cabinet. The seller doesn't appear to sell "older" cards as part of their inventory. Just seems odd.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/40320280570...rdt=true&rt=nc

Maybe he bought it thinking it was going to be a standard-sized baseball card and then when it showed up much larger than he anticipated he decided he didn't want it anymore? lol

[buymycards]

Not only did the seller lose $ on the actual price, but his eBay fees will be $108 for this sale.

[Leon]

Very recently I took a loss on a card because I wanted the money to buy another card. It happens, and my guess is, fairly often. I also paid a lot more for a card I recently bought than it was auctioned for just a few months ago. Collecting isn't always rational.
.

[iwantitiwinit]

Wild guess here was this sellers name Adrian by any chance?

[egri]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

Wild guess here was this sellers name Adrian by any chance?

[Yoda]

Or possibly, because there were no bids until the last second, he may have asked a pal to bid on it, subject, of course, to full reimbursement, so as to save himself the embarrassment of having it go unsold. Then figure out a new strategy to unload the card.

[25801wv]

Sounds like something I do. I collect for fun and when I no longer enjoy the card I will sell it for an equal or lower price just to get what I want. I sort of rent cards and don’t really own most of them.

[FrankWakefield]

What Leon said... think about stocks, do you always hold a stock until you can sell it for a profit? No, sometimes you sell a stock to free up cash to buy something else. I think baseball card collectors do that to some extent, to free up money to get another card; and ball card speculators are all the time selling cards to get money to buy more cards to sell.

I'm glad ball card collectors sell cards, that puts cards out there on the market for me to have a chance at buying. Card speculators churning around in the ball card market does annoy me a bit, probably for no good reason.

One more aspect... how certain are you the the guy selling for a loss is the same guy that won the card at auction 2 months previously? There could have been an intervening transaction.

I've sold a few E90-1s at a slight loss. I didn't buy them in the first place with the intent of making money on them, I was looking at putting a set together. Back in the day, the Mitchell card was the really tough card. But what it took to buy one was eclipsed by a few of the HOFers eventually. I think this was because there were more buyers (not just collectors) buying pre war HOFers. Look at the cost of the Mitchell (among the E90-1's I sold) back in 1990 compared to the cost of an E90-1 Cy Young, then look at the cost today... a collector eventually wants Mitchell to fill the set; a HOFer speculator has no need for a Mitchell. Compare the 1990 cost of a T206 green Cobb, to the 1990 cost of the Polar Bear Demmitt's and O'Hara's; compare that to the differential in their 2021 costs. Demmitt and O'Hara are less plentiful, yet Cobb costs much more and the cost has increased at a greater rate. I sold those few E90-1's because I had realized that I wasn't going to pay what I deemed high prices for the HOFers in the set that I lacked... Not a bit of that thought process is in the head of a speculator in old ballcards (they may think of themselves as investors, speculator seems the proper label to me).

An afterthought, maybe that 2 month later bidder was a shill bidder.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

What Leon said... think about stocks, do you always hold a stock until you can sell it for a profit? No, sometimes you sell a stock to free up cash to buy something else. I think baseball card collectors do that to some extent, to free up money to get another card; and ball card speculators are all the time selling cards to get money to buy more cards to sell.

I'm glad ball card collectors sell cards, that puts cards out there on the market for me to have a chance at buying. Card speculators churning around in the ball card market does annoy me a bit, probably for no good reason.

One more aspect... how certain are you the the guy selling for a loss is the same guy that won the card at auction 2 months previously? There could have been an intervening transaction.

I've sold a few E90-1s at a slight loss. I didn't buy them in the first place with the intent of making money on them, I was looking at putting a set together. Back in the day, the Mitchell card was the really tough card. But what it took to buy one was eclipsed by a few of the HOFers eventually. I think this was because there were more buyers (not just collectors) buying pre war HOFers. Look at the cost of the Mitchell (among the E90-1's I sold) back in 1990 compared to the cost of an E90-1 Cy Young, then look at the cost today... a collector eventually wants Mitchell to fill the set; a HOFer speculator has no need for a Mitchell. Compare the 1990 cost of a T206 green Cobb, to the 1990 cost of the Polar Bear Demmitt's and O'Hara's; compare that to the differential in their 2021 costs. Demmitt and O'Hara are less plentiful, yet Cobb costs much more and the cost has increased at a greater rate. I sold those few E90-1's because I had realized that I wasn't going to pay what I deemed high prices for the HOFers in the set that I lacked... Not a bit of that thought process is in the head of a speculator in old ballcards (they may think of themselves as investors, speculator seems the proper label to me).

An afterthought, maybe that 2 month later bidder was a shill bidder.

yes...all relevant points! I sold my 51 bowman mantle a few years ago for a small profit...and then rolled this $$$ into cobbs and ruths.

I missed the runup on my mantle for around 8K to current levels 25k+...but my ruths have made up the difference I lost on the mantle.

I think the only $$$$$ I've ever lost on cards has been on type "rarities!"

the t207 red cross lowdy...t208 fireside...etc.

[rats60]

I was out bid on a card once only to see it immediately listed for a ridiculous price on eBay. Then about a month later it was listed with PWCC where it sold for less than it was sold for by the AH. It didn't make sense to me, but if people like lighting their money on fire, why should I care?

[Kidnapped18]

Not uncommon...I've bought cards this year and last that I missed out on in auctions (REA, LOTG etc.) only to have them show up on eBay months later and pay much less $100+ than what they sold for at the AH's

[Fred]

Originally Posted by FrankWakefield

What Leon said... think about stocks, do you always hold a stock until you can sell it for a profit? This would make the seller a "day trader" of baseball cards (of sorts) - Doesn't seem like a good strategy to buy something you may not know much about. No, sometimes you sell a stock to free up cash to buy something else. I think baseball card collectors do that to some extent, to free up money to get another card; and ball card speculators are all the time selling cards to get money to buy more cards to sell.

I'm glad ball card collectors sell cards, that puts cards out there on the market for me to have a chance at buying. Card speculators churning around in the ball card market does annoy me a bit, probably for no good reason. Yes, this also annoys me, especially when it's something I collect and someone that doesn't care about the cards buys it thinking they can make a profit on it... it was nice to see this seller take a $200+ bath on this. Maybe next time they'll leave the bidding to people ("collectors") that actually would like to advance their collections.

One more aspect... how certain are you the the guy selling for a loss is the same guy that won the card at auction 2 months previously? There could have been an intervening transaction. Then who ever valuated the card did a pretty poor job. It was never said that there is something suspicious about the transaction - just a really odd way to do business.

I've sold a few E90-1s at a slight loss. I didn't buy them in the first place with the intent of making money on them, I was looking at putting a set together. This was a single card, not a "lot" of cards. Back in the day, the Mitchell card was the really tough card. But what it took to buy one was eclipsed by a few of the HOFers eventually. I think this was because there were more buyers (not just collectors) buying pre war HOFers. Look at the cost of the Mitchell (among the E90-1's I sold) back in 1990 compared to the cost of an E90-1 Cy Young, then look at the cost today... a collector eventually wants Mitchell to fill the set; a HOFer speculator has no need for a Mitchell. Compare the 1990 cost of a T206 green Cobb, to the 1990 cost of the Polar Bear Demmitt's and O'Hara's; compare that to the differential in their 2021 costs. Demmitt and O'Hara are less plentiful, yet Cobb costs much more and the cost has increased at a greater rate. I sold those few E90-1's because I had realized that I wasn't going to pay what I deemed high prices for the HOFers in the set that I lacked... Not a bit of that thought process is in the head of a speculator in old ballcards (they may think of themselves as investors, speculator seems the proper label to me).

An afterthought, maybe that 2 month later bidder was a shill bidder.
That was never said/mentioned in the initiating post...

I actually bid on the card in the original AH auction. Then when I saw it pop up on ebay, I figured I'd track it. I was actually going to bid on it in the ebay auction but figured someone else would bid on it (in the very last seconds - my prediction was right) and I was hoping the person that picked it up was an actual collector of this material and not one of those bidders we don't like. I'll keep my eyes open for this cabinet again.

I picked up a tough OJ a few years back from someone that purchased it for about twice the amount I paid them for it. In this case the card sold on ebay both times. The person provided a funny explanation on why they sold it for the discounted price and all I could do was laugh because I figured it was very true...