CNN card story

[cardsagain74]

During the mid '90s, I met countless "shoeshine" everyday people who thought they were Wall Street experts, and others (who also noticed that) that were using the same kind of Kennedy Sr. quotes to assume that stocks were ridiculously overvalued at the time.

There's a lot of selective memory used sometimes in remembering how accurate such indicators are. The reality of markets is naturally often a lot more complex and extremely difficult to predict.

For cards at the moment, I think the key to the vault is: "will this be just another junk wax fad, or will the renewed interest in the hobby be more of a mainstay"?

I admit that I really wonder what the answer might be to that. And if that were to go wrong, also fear for the possible downside of the endless string of PSA 9s and 10s of '80s - modern superstars that are worth 10 times what they were a year ago.

But I'm not gonna try to outguess the future too much

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

During the mid '90s, I met countless "shoeshine" everyday people who thought they were Wall Street experts, and others (who also noticed that) that were using the same kind of Kennedy Sr. quotes to assume that stocks were ridiculously overvalued at the time.

There's a lot of selective memory used sometimes in remembering how accurate such indicators are. The reality of markets is naturally often a lot more complex and extremely difficult to predict.

For cards at the moment, I think the key to the vault is: "will this be just another junk wax fad, or will the renewed interest in the hobby be more of a mainstay"?

I admit that I really wonder what the answer might be to that. And if that were to go wrong, also fear for the possible downside of the endless stirng of PSA 9s and 10s of '80s - modern superstars that are worth 10 times what they were a year ago.

But I'm not gonna try to outguess the future too much

The shoeshine boy reference is more of an economic signal in terms of level of risk taking and level of demand over stocks for pieces of paper with registration numbers (stk certs)

I do find it funny as much as Wall Street have been waiting for the retail suckers to buy their large cap tech stock, they are getting derailed because these investors are instead speculating in Bitcoin, micro cap (weed, solar, ev...) names and SPACs. Now these same Wall Street egos are watching Bitcoin in angst. (We were so hesitant to put gold in our mandated portfolios before Bitcoin, let along pulling the trigger on Bitcoin now). If you look at proclaimed pm’s on Twitter, many don’t hold Bitcoin, but they are definitely following it on their follows...

But to bring back to topic, I find the analogy of prewar (to appease bird sticklers) versus modern to gold versus Bitcoin. The former is natural scarcity versus manufactured scarcity. The former is historically stable, but the latter is more in fashion. And most obvious, the former is significantly underperforming the latter. Time will tell.

I’m overweight prewar and gold...

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

The shoeshine boy reference is more of an economic signal in terms of level of risk taking and level of demand over stocks for pieces of paper with registration numbers (stk certs)

I do find it funny as much as Wall Street have been waiting for the retail suckers to buy their large cap tech stock, they are getting derailed because these investors are instead buying Bitcoin, speculative micro cap names and SPACs. Now these same Wall Street egos are watching Bitcoin in angst. (We were so hesitant to put gold in our mandated portfolios before Bitcoin, let along pulling the trigger on Bitcoin now). If you look at proclaimed pm’s on Twitter, many don’t hold Bitcoin, but they are definitely following it on their follows...

But to bring back to topic, I find the analogy of prewar (to appease bird sticklers) versus modern to gold versus Bitcoin. The former is natural scarcity versus manufactured scarcity. The former is historically stable, but the latter is more in fashion. And most obvious, the former is significantly underperforming the latter. Time will tell.

I’m overweight prewar and gold...

good analogy!

[swarmee]

Another less-frequently mentioned issue is the possibility of the next MLB lockout. That's one thing that really killed the 1990s card boon; the strike-shortened 1994 baseball season.
Everyone's saying the demand is here to stay, but a strike showed everyone back then just how fleeting that could be.

And if bitcoin and the other digital currencies crash, it could pull a lot of easy money out of cards. A rising tide lifts all boats, but a low tide hasn't happened in a long time. We've basically been in a bull market for stocks since 2008.

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Another less-frequently mentioned issue is the possibility of the next MLB lockout. That's one thing that really killed the 1990s card boon; the strike-shortened 1994 baseball season.
Everyone's saying the demand is here to stay, but a strike showed everyone back then just how fleeting that could be.

And if bitcoin and the other digital currencies crash, it could pull a lot of easy money out of cards. A rising tide lifts all boats, but a low tide hasn't happened in a long time. We've basically been in a bull market for stocks since 2008.

I completely agree on this point. Seems like the elephant in the room, especially for the modern speculative market.

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by Wanaselja

I completely agree on this point. Seems like the elephant in the room, especially for the modern speculative market.

The baseball issue will be important but frankly a bit less important than in 1994. Baseball is still the leading part of the market but,,, the older rookie cards are in flavor as are soccer and basketball cards thanks to overseas interest. Football just signed a 10 year deal so they are in good shape.

And have you seen the Pokemon market?

Rich

[Seven]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Another less-frequently mentioned issue is the possibility of the next MLB lockout. That's one thing that really killed the 1990s card boon; the strike-shortened 1994 baseball season.
Everyone's saying the demand is here to stay, but a strike showed everyone back then just how fleeting that could be.

And if bitcoin and the other digital currencies crash, it could pull a lot of easy money out of cards. A rising tide lifts all boats, but a low tide hasn't happened in a long time. We've basically been in a bull market for stocks since 2008.

I can't definitively say if Bitcoin will crash or not because I'm not knowledgeable enough about the subject. Still blows my mind that a currency backed by nothing is worth so much

Would be interesting to see if we get a repeat of history, if in fact we have another lockout again.

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by Seven

I can't definitively say if Bitcoin will crash or not because I'm not knowledgeable enough about the subject. Still blows my mind that a currency backed by nothing is worth so much

Would be interesting to see if we get a repeat of history, if in fact we have another lockout again.

It’s all about demand. Regardless of whether it’s code of 0’s and 1’s where you cannot request physical settlement, or pieces of paper with dead men on it (as my wife calls it). Off my soapbox, finished my workout. Take care guys.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Seven

Still blows my mind that a currency backed by nothing is worth so much :confused

I contend that the US dollar, backed by the “full faith and credit of the United States Government”, which is wickedly insolvent and digging deeper with stimulus, is backed by nothing.

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I contend that the US dollar, backed by the “full faith and credit of the United States Government”, which is wickedly insolvent and digging deeper with stimulus, is backed by nothing.

Yes.

[Orioles1954]

Huggins and Scott Auctions has a sister company in the same building which is a card shop. It's been amazing to me to see all the different types of people buying in to the hobby. Tons of young people, many more women and people of color, folks from all walks of life. Their question is invariably "what should I invest in?" Fascinating.