Random Thoughts on this Hobby and its Future

[tazdmb]

I am going to try and answer without rambling on, too much. Until the FBI or another organization comes in and starts policing these auction houses, I believe we will remain in a status quo. I see forgers have moved more away from sports and are now focusing in on the entertainment, where signatures studies are much more elusive and people are willing to spend even more money for an "autographed McCartney" guitar. Google fake Anthony Nurse if you have a few minutes. I know the FBI is quietly working on this as well, although I can't get into too much detail. As for sports autographs, I think items with iron-clad provenance (checks, contracts, letters) will continue to command a premium, from top-collectors, such as those on this board.

My bold prediction is that JSA will go the way of GAI in the next few years. They pretty much have started already, they just haven't been called out yet in the larger community.

[jad22]

Originally Posted by tazdmb

I am going to try and answer without rambling on, too much. Until the FBI or another organization comes in and starts policing these auction houses, I believe we will remain in a status quo. I see forgers have moved more away from sports and are now focusing in on the entertainment, where signatures studies are much more elusive and people are willing to spend even more money for an "autographed McCartney" guitar. Google fake Anthony Nurse if you have a few minutes. I know the FBI is quietly working on this as well, although I can't get into too much detail. As for sports autographs, I think items with iron-clad provenance (checks, contracts, letters) will continue to command a premium, from top-collectors, such as those on this board.

My bold prediction is that JSA will go the way of GAI in the next few years. They pretty much have started already, they just haven't been called out yet in the larger community.

JSA going the way of GAI will be problematic. They have a much larger market than GAI.

[Klrdds]

Taz,
I heard of Anthony Nurse a couple of years ago but haven't thought of him in a while. I hope they get what is coming to them, scamming is bad but scamming in the name of charity is egregious .
Your comment about JSA is interesting, because if they do go the way of GAI a couple of things could happen. One is that PSA will be the only major player in the TPA business and will that allow them to cert more bad autos than they already do? Second we all know that Jimmy will land on his feet somewhere else as an authenticator and that he could possibly blame the downfall of JSA on his "untrained" employees certing autos that he had no control over since he was so busy with "bigger" projects.
I do agree with you about checks and contracts ( legal documents).

[egri]

This might just be me, but I've noticed that I'm becoming less interested in collecting as more and more old timers pass away. I think baseball cards have become too gimmicky and even if they weren't, the player's signatures are practically illegible. That's one of the reasons why I started my '53 Topps project; Sy Berger actually put effort into designing the set, and the signatures from that era are almost as nice as the cards themselves.

[mdallen22]

I've always been curious with the sustainability of this industry with the younger generations. Will they continue to drive an interest in sports memorabilia?

[egri]

Originally Posted by mdallen22

I've always been curious with the sustainability of this industry with the younger generations. Will they continue to drive an interest in sports memorabilia?

When I got in to collecting in 5th grade (~10 years ago) there were a few other kids who collected baseball cards, all modern stuff. Now, I know of one other guy my age who collects autographs, and that's it.

[RelicSports]

I do believe that the hobby of autograph collecting (baseball in particular) will continue to grow over time as it has in the past, but perhaps there will be a lull or decline in value in certain era's/players based on fans from that era passing away as well as simple supply and demand. The players like Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, Dimaggio, Williams, Mantle, Mays, Aaron, etc. will continue to be highly collected, but perhaps Hall of Famers with less mystique around them such as Mathews, Drysdale, Killebrew, etc. will stall or be less appreciated. I can't see people just stopping cold turkey...relics have been around forever. The issue of forgeries is a major concern, but it has been around for a long time (an issue in any business, whether cards, autographs, art, watches, etc.).

[Klrdds]

I believe that collecting goes in ebb and flow cycles. However in the past it was just a cycle , however I believe that the next cycle which is ongoing as we speak is not just a natural cycle but also one influenced by many outside factors as well. These include the cancellation of the 1994 World Series which made many collectors stop collecting , thereby preventing a continuation of collecting for that generation and the next generation, but also preventing the passing down of collecting to future generations; the high price of packs of cards and the inclusion of insert cards making the desirable cards out of the reach for young collectors, the lack of player interaction with fans,especially the young fans who are needed to continue the collecting hobby; the late starting times for the post season which prevents kids from watching the game or at times its conclusion( so they don 't see many times late inning heroics), the scandals involving players who used to be role models and heroes; the tainted hobby with fraud, scams, and forgeries common place; and the lack of the neighborhood card shop and card shows.
My 2 boys ( 11 and17 )care nothing about collecting, but thankfully at times they will go into my memorabilia rooms and ask questions about players or items. In the area we live there is one collector under 40 that I know of. I do agree that the numbers of younger collectors seems to be visibly decreasing.
As far as HOFer autograph collecting I believe that people may specialize their HOF autograph collections and not try to get them all due to the cost, the amount of forgeries appearing in the market, and that collectors are now realizing that no one will ever be able to complete the full set.