My Unique Goudey 1933 High-Grade Pop Report Rankings

[GregMitch34]

As I did with the first combined Cracker Jack 1914 pop report a few weeks back, here's a revealing and hopefully useful ranking of the only Goudey 1933 cards that are PSA 8 with "none higher," as we like to say. This is sparked by what seems to be greater interest now, with three recent eBay offerings each with a large number of such cards--and higher prices earned.

I've noted in following those auctions and others that the prices track pretty well--usually--with not just the "no higher" factor, and not just with how many other "8s" there are for that card, but also the combined 8s and the 7s for such cards. So my ranking is based on that combined total, with the first number below for 7s and the second for 8s.

It's interesting (to me) that while the fabled "low numbers" (that is, up to 52, minus a few) certainly tend to rank higher, six of the top eight high-graders are NOT from that group. Surprise! (Asterisks for HOFers.) Your comments invited.


#52 Cohen 7-8 15
#231 Moore 10-6 16
#120 Reynolds 7-11 18
#5 Herman 11-8 19
#136 Rhem 8-11 19
#36 Thevenow 10-10 20
#51 Grimm 7-13 20
#145 Walberg 10-11 21
#8 Johnson 13-8 21
#45 Benton 13-8 21
#34 O’Farrell 15-7 22
#28 Bartell 15-8 23
#130 Fitzsimmons 14-9 23
#139 Cantwell 11-13 24
#84 Spencer 17-7 24
#118 Picinich 15-9 24
#2 Vance* 12-12 24
#98 Berger 11-13 24

#4 Schable 16-8 24
#140 Hadley 15-9 24
#90 Petty 17-8 25
#100 Uhle 16-9 25
#82 Williams 13-12 25
#47 Manush* 15-11 26
#129 Schumacher 17-9 26
#116 Morgan 18-8 26
#177 Lucas 15-12 27
#169 Thomas 16-11 27
#3 Critz 18-9 27
#32 Clancy 17-11 28
#213 Adams 21-8 29
#26 Cissell 20-9 29
#175 Howley 18-11 29
#31 Lazzeri* 19-10 29

#50 Brandt 20-10 30
#91 Morrissey 22-9 31
#11 Rogell 20-11 31
#81 Jones 19-12 31
#224 Demaree 17-14 31
#171 Jamieson 22-11 33
#226 Root 21-12 33
#190 Schulte 21-12 33
#21 P. Collins 23-10 33
#24 Ford 25-8 33
#190 Schulte 21-12 33
#25 Waner* 20-13 33
#226 Root 21-12 33
#75 Kamm 17-17 34
#99 Cucinello 23-11 34
#83 Jablonowski 12-22 34
#41 Mancuso 22-12 34

#101 Coffman 23-12 35
#152 Taylor 24-11 35
#105 Friberg 20-15 35
#162 Mangum 24-11 35
#96 Hudlin 26-9 35
#151 Flowers 22-14 36
#214 Kerr 20-16 36
#108 Kuhel 21-17 38
#131 Frankhouse 24-14 38
#138 Pennock* 23-15 38
#218 Farrell* 23-15 38

#14 Johnson 24-15 39
#191 Chapman 27-12 39
#191 Chapman 27-12 39
#117 Maranville* 24-17 41
#112 Schulte 30-12 42
#219 Haas 28-14 42
#60 Hoyt 26-17 43
#29 Foxx* 29-14 43
#72 Carroll 31-12 43
#43 E. Collins* 25-18 43
#192 Brown 31-13 44
#199 Bridges 22-23 45
#200 Hallahan 29-16 45
#54 Kremer 29-16 45

#74 Rixey* 28-18 46
#62 Martin 26-22 48
#210 Davis 30-20 50
#154 Foxx* 37-13 50
#238 Critz 30-21 51
#44 Bottomley 31-23 54
#189 Cronin* 37-19 56
#76 Cochrane* 41-25 66

[glchen]

I collected this set in the past, and basically completed it (except for the Lajoie, of course) in mid to high grade except for the Ruth's which I had in low grade. Then I sold it off to focus on other stuff.

What I thought I saw when I was collecting was that cards 1-5 were tough in higher grade, and I especially had a tough time finding the #4 Schuble in nice condition. #12 Pipgras has also been notoriously hard to find in higher grade.

Other comments, I thought the low numbers went up to #53 for Ruth? Also, #5 Babe Herman is not a HOFer. I was confused about that for the longest time also. He's confused with #227 Billy Herman, who is a HOFer, and both of them played on the Cubs.

[h2oya311]

My only comment is that people generally get the HOFers and low numbers graded in greater numbers than other commons. Perhaps percentages (by player) would give you another list w/r/t high-grade scarcity.

For full disclosure, I am neither a 1933 Goudey collector nor an actuary, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night!

[RGold]

The low numbers are #1-40 and #45-52. These were the cards on the first two sheets. Remember, Goudey cards were printed on ten 24 card sheets, and as Goudey liked to do, not in strict numerical order. Theory has it that this was a marketing ploy to fool kids into trying to find cards that had not yet been printed and distributed.

Greg, I think any type of analysis such as you are attempting does not make sense. This is a very thin market with low supply, few collectors, and thus not enough transactions.

May I suggest a different approach. Most of the low number commons have a population of 8-15 in PSA 8. Most commons from the higher series number 10-20 in PSA 8.

Now look at the PSA Registry and you will find that there are only 5 sets at 8 or higher and they are complete. So these are not potential buyers. There are currently no sets being built in PSA 8. So no buyers there. Certainly, there are no player set builders for common players.

I know there are buyers of PSA 8 Goudeys that are not on the Registry because I sell to them. But they are never going to attempt to complete the set at $500,000 plus, and they have little interest in buying $1,000 low series commons.

Last month you bought a #21 Collins at a fair price because you weren't bidding against anybody other than dealers or people like you looking for a deal. That is not a recipe for record prices unless the auctions are sham sales as we see many cards being sold and then offered again in a short time.

The only supply of high grade Goudeys is coming from set breaks. The cards on eBay from last night, were highly desirable low population cards. The prices were good but certainly not pre-2008 type prices. As you observed though, the Goudey market does seem a little stronger lately.

It seems to me that the only way to predict prices on Goudey auctions is to identify the potential buyers, knowing that in a thin market you might not see the two or three serious bidders necessary to get a fair reading on prices.

[GregMitch34]

RG, good points, but I would respond that the ranking of relative "scarcity" in high grades is hardly irrelevant, since some, from prices, seem to be going to pop report themselves and bidding accordingly--not totally consistently but close enough. Of course, you never know what might happen in future and I have made no claims on pricing--I was simply providing a ranking. Contrary to what you say, there have been plenty of "transactions" lately.

It's odd that you suggest no one is really collecting for sets, yet the commons are selling readily and at record prices--at least post-2008. Comparing the prices to 2008 as you do is unfair--if you compare to a few months ago the prices have jumped a lot, even if that's only temporary.

You suggest no one would pay 1000 for a low-series common but someone paid 980 for one last night. Also last night a large number of PSA 8 commons that were higher numbers went for 750 to 950--in most cases, seemingly, based on pop reports. And many that were not "highest graded" still went for over $500--or $150-200 more than they did recently. So "something" is going on...even if, again, briefly.

BTW, I have exactly two PSA 8s so I am hardly deeply invested in this...

[RGold]

Well, I was trying to help, not wanting to argue.

I AM heavily invested in Goudeys so I hope your impression of the market is true. Goudey prices have shown a glimmer of strength in the last two months. Goodwin Auctions had a very successful offering of SGC high grades that were newly graded.

The PWCC eBay auctions were ok. The ones a few weeks ago were mostly your run of the mill commons, SMR $385, and that's pretty much what they brought. Last night's auctions included some very tough low pop commons and the prices were good but not records. But believe me, I was glad to see good prices because 1930's card prices have been so stagnant the last 5 years.

Another positive for the Goudey market has been the increase in Babe Ruth SMR prices.

As for your analysis, whatever works for you.

[GregMitch34]

Yes, I noted SGC prices for those also rose--a sure sign of...something. As you know, they are far from favored for the '33s. Maybe that is changing slightly.

[GregMitch34]

Finally took closer look at that Goodwin auction last month with all those SGCs for Goudey 33s and impressed more than ever with price hikes. Only for the 8s or 8.5s but that's only what I'm interested in, anyway. And again, people do seem to, loosely, follow pop reports (and HOFers).