(2 Years Later) PSA vs. SGC - A look at the T206 set

[jhs5120]

Almost two years ago to the day I wrote about the trends and differences between PSA and SGC in regards to the t206 set. The research I performed can be found here.

I wanted to better understand the market differences between SGC and PSA as well as the collecting and price trends between collectors of both TPG’s. In the previous thread I came to the following conclusion: Premium is established to the TPG company with the more readily accessible commons.

I thought it would be neat to come back and perform the research again to find the difference two years has made on the t206 market. I wanted to see:

• How many new cards are entering the population reports at each condition level
• How much has the value of the t206 set appreciated (or depreciated)
• How population increases have affected the value of t206 cards

I started with the population reports and immediately noticed two things. A lot of collectors are sending their cards to PSA and the population of SGC 7 cards actually went down! See below:








Obviously it’s impossible to know how many cards have been cracked or reviewed or resubbed multiple times, but I will assume the amount of resubs happens at a similar rate between PSA and SGC. A few notes, I rounded half grades down and I did the standard minus 2 points for qualifiers. I obviously excluded the big three and random "error" cards from the totals.

Considering my previous hypothesis that the price of a set is determined by how easily accessible the commons are I determined that low grade PSA cards increased in value at a higher rate than SGC cards. I was correct:



It should be noted that not every sale is recorded here, just sales from VCP. A great example of how this might change is the most recent Saco River find and auction.

I think the most startling item of note is that the value of low grade SGC sets have decreased marginally, while PSA has seen a significant increase in collector grade cards. Why did this happen? The supply of low grade PSA t206 cards has increased by 20-30% (see above) making the set much more attainable to collectors who focus on affordable cards. Overall the value of the set has held its value well, but over the past two years it’s clear to see collectors gravitate more towards PSA cards. Below is the average value per grade:






I'll spend some time digging into it a bit deeper this weekend, but I thought this was pretty neat.

Jason Simonds

[deltaarnet]

Thanks Jason. Very helpful information.

[RaidonCollects]

Very interesting to read, I'll keep the prices in mind when buying. Nice job on the research, I'm sure it's very helpful to some of the board members.

Thanks

~Owen

[Econteachert205]

Jason, great work.

[jcc6252]

Great work Jason, I love this kind of stuff.

[Cmount76]

Great job on the research. Always interesting to read how the hobby is constantly evolving.

[Lgarza99]

Jason,
Thanks for taking the time to share the results of your hard work! Very interesting results.

[freakhappy]

And this is why Jason was recruited for my fantasy league

Great info, Jason. I always like to see info like this...very interesting!

[1952boyntoncollector]

Yes this trend is very evident..

for some reason on b/s/t...many sellers still want the same value for their sgc 1-7 as the psa 1-7 counterparts....it getting tougher and tougher I think they are finding...

[thecardstore99]

Awesome analysis. I'm sure a lot of work was put into this so thanks for sharing it with us.

[ZernialFan]

As some have said before..............between PSA and SGC, buy the card not the holder.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by ZernialFan

As some have said before..............between PSA and SGC, buy the card not the holder.

right for the collector for a private collection that's words to live by.. but in re-sale market the holder sells the card more than the card itself

[Mountaineer1999]

I notice prices are almost unchanged over the two year period. Have the cards plateaued? What are the chances with increased inventory and a decreasing number of collectors that the future prices will start to decline?

[BleedinBlue]

It is incorrect to say the inventory is "increasing". They are not making any more T206's, as long as you don't count the Jason Mars Wagner in the discussion. What I think you are seeing with the population increases is a handful of old timers sets being made available, but more often cards being crossed from one TPG to another. The power of the registry can not be ignored and PSA clearly dominates the battle of the Registries. My T206 set is all in PSA holders for consistency reasons and all in PSA holders primarily because of the registry. When I look for upgrades to my set I am very willing to buy SGC cards and cross them over to PSA if I can get the card for enough less to cover the grading fees. I'm sure there are collectors who cross cards the other direction as well. But I suspect far more cards are going from SGC to PSA which is one reason you see the larger jumps in inventory levels for PSA. I also suspect most collectors do not alert the TPGs that a card has been cracked so the pop levels are too high and will get farther and farther out of line as time goes by.

As for the number of collectors for T206, I believe this will largely remain constant or slightly increase over time due to the popularity of the set, the abundance of cards available and the growing population. Non mainstream sets may not fare as well but I think T206 is safe for another 20-30 years.

Originally Posted by Mountaineer1999

I notice prices are almost unchanged over the two year period. Have the cards plateaued? What are the chances with increased inventory and a decreasing number of collectors that the future prices will start to decline?

[steve B]

Interesting look at things.

There's a few points that don't make sense to me.

If the price analysis is for commons the average price for each grade should be for commons. If it is I want to know just who is buying 2s for $50+ so I can send them most of mine.

Without breaking out commons from HOF and high demand cards the numbers don't seem to mean as much. Overall, the price of PSA commons in low grade could be lower and the HOF prices higher. In general, HOF players and other high demand cards tend to be graded roughly twice as often as commons.

It's interesting that PSA6 cards are off about 3% while 5s are up by about 5-6%. Leaving the percentages off the PSA chart seems a bit misleading.

Another interesting thing is that the difference between companies is a lot more in higher grades. I think that can be solidly explained by the popularity of the registry. (Also odd to me since actually "competing" would be pretty expensive just to get into the current top 25. If someone is overspending to shoot for 50th, good luck to them but I just don't see the point)

The differences in grades 4 and under don't seem significant. I don't know statistics well enough to figure out the deviations and whether they're big enough to matter.

Steve B

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Mountaineer1999

I notice prices are almost unchanged over the two year period. Have the cards plateaued? What are the chances with increased inventory and a decreasing number of collectors that the future prices will start to decline?

That sort of plateau has been typical for the entire 37 years I've been collecting. When I started most commons were 1.50, and were for a couple years. Then they went to 3.00, then I think 5-6. condition got a but more important about then, with actual differences between G+ VG and VG-EX. Before they were mostly all the same price.

I recall a guy at shows who had a binder full priced at $9 each. And selling very few for maybe three years, Then one show I went to look closer and maybe buy a couple and all the VG or better were gone along with about half of the others. They'll be at the current prices for a while, and at some point will have a decent increase.

Steve B

[kamikidEFFL]

Not collecting the t206, yes I'm afraid of the monster haha. But this is some great information. I'd be sure to check this out if I ever decide to tackle the monster.

[cammb]

I buy all graded t 206 cards so I can crack them out and free them from their plastic tombs. Nothing like looking at cards in an album.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Non mainstream sets may not fare as well but I think T206 is safe for another 20-30 years.[/QUOTE]


Everyone says 10-20 years....you wont see anyone say 5 years..by the time people think its 5 years away from a massive decline there will be a selloff ..no one will wait 5 years..they will sell now...thus everyone says 20 years+ there will be a decline until one day theres a selloff.....this happened in the late 80s...lots of people says cards in the 1980s were overproduced and in about 10-15 years there will be selloff!...

[rats60]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

Non mainstream sets may not fare as well but I think T206 is safe for another 20-30 years.
Everyone says 10-20 years....you wont see anyone say 5 years..by the time people think its 5 years away from a massive decline there will be a selloff ..no one will wait 5 years..they will sell now...thus everyone says 20 years+ there will be a decline until one day theres a selloff.....this happened in the late 80s...lots of people says cards in the 1980s were overproduced and in about 10-15 years there will be selloff!...

I don't think you'll ever see a massive decline in t206s. Sports will always be popular and are just growing more popular. People are collectors and they will look to collect items connected with sports. t206 is the gold standard.

Just look at the salaries players make. Next you'll be saying that Baseball players will need to find jobs in the off season soon because they will no longer be able make enough to support themselves. The genie is out of the bottle. The hobby is here to stay. Otherwise, it would have died in the 90's when all the casual fans and get rich quick guys left. The die hard collectors are keeping it going and they will always be around. When today's collectors die off, new ones will replace them.

[Tao_Moko]

The inflated price of holdered cards will eventually fall in line with their raw counterparts aside from a premium for their authentication when accurate. Set registries and favoring one company over another are trends in the hobby. T206 however is not a trend.

Three quick things:

1. Was the cost of the grade/holder/shipping factored in the calculations?
2. Isn't it possible that higher grade cards are not demanding graded prices and in turn has boosted sales of lesser grade cards that are more fairly priced?
3. I see high grade cards for sale on b/s/t and ebay constantly reduced until they're sold for the card value.

There is another collection for sale I am looking at where the cost of what it took to grade the set is the asking price. That's a bad situation to be in for anyone.

*my opinion solely based on cards from the early 1900's to about 1915. I don't collect or know anything beyond that very well.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by rats60

I don't think you'll ever see a massive decline in t206s. Sports will always be popular and are just growing more popular. People are collectors and they will look to collect items connected with sports. t206 is the gold standard.

Just look at the salaries players make. Next you'll be saying that Baseball players will need to find jobs in the off season soon because they will no longer be able make enough to support themselves. The genie is out of the bottle. The hobby is here to stay. Otherwise, it would have died in the 90's when all the casual fans and get rich quick guys left. The die hard collectors are keeping it going and they will always be around. When today's collectors die off, new ones will replace them.

Yes collectors in the whole will always be there. I would point to the baseball tv ratings versus hoops and football as a red flag for future decline. They are trying to quicken the sport to make for better ratings and for folks to come to the games. Maybe there will be other trends to get more people interested. Im all for that..