Accepting current card prices

[parkplace33]

Related to the National… I saw a lot of posts this weekend about the National and cards being bought there. From my viewpoint, a ton of collectors went to the National for certain cards, found the cards, and, for lack of a better phrase, “paid up for them”. I also heard experiences that dealers at the National mostly had firm prices for quality cards. Little negation, prices are what they are.

One collector friend told me that he needed a certain card, found it, and paid asking price because in his mind, who knows what the card will be priced at in 6 months or a year later. I am curious if this mentality will continue the year and into 2023.

[Exhibitman]

On quality vintage cards, sure. It always has. Why should anyone discount Babe Ruth, so to speak?

[Lorewalker]

Still seeing nice examples for the grade selling for strong prices. Cards which remain in demand (Ruths, Mantles, Cobbs, Wagners) are holding for the most part but lower end for the grade and mid tier Hall of Famers are lower over the last few months.

[todeen]

I don't have FOMO like I did 18 months ago. I hear a lot of chatter that the good times are ending. Fanatics might enter into a very cold collecting climate.

The danger will lie in modern cards. Anyone check Wander Franco prices lately? No price is finalized until the HOF. Mike Trout is about to see a dip similar to Albert Pujols / Ken Griffey Jr / Don Mattingly.....etc.

Some vintage will come back down to earth of lesser HOF players. I watch Wheaties, I like them. And even lesser no names have risen in price for no apparent reason. I understand Gehrig, Dimaggio, and Foxx in the last surge. But Wheaties lost popularity in the last recession, so we will see how long current process hold with the coming dip. 6 months is a long time.

Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk

[icurnmedic]

Originally Posted by todeen

Mike Trout is about to see a dip similar to Albert Pujols / Ken Griffey Jr / Don Mattingly.....etc.

Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk

I’ve been thinking this recently as well. Hope not as I have a few nice rookies, but how can they not?

[Mrc32]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

On quality vintage cards, sure. It always has. Why should anyone discount Babe Ruth, so to speak?

I don't think people were looking for discounts. I think the issues I had were people pricing things way higher than previous online auction results. This was my experience anyway. I'm not going to pay an extra $1000 because I can hold it in my hand when i buy. So I imagine a lot of those overpriced cards sat....

[Ronnie73]

This is an interesting post. Mainly because most of us here collect true vintage items that are rare to begin with. Reguardless of player, the cards are old, rare, and were never meant to be a way of making money or seen as an investment, when they were produced. Because of that, the values tend to rise over a period of time. Now switch over to new products. In the 1970's, there was value noticed, but not really investment yet. In the mid 1980's, investment started to be an reason to purchase something. Early 1990's the realization of over producing cards, crashed the market, and nearly all the newer collector/investors disappeared. The old timers kept tradeing vintage. Nearly 25 years later, many of the original collector/investors from the mid 1980's returned and kinda repeated history. Except more money was involved and newer cards were shiney, serial numbered, auto'd, and patched. You could have two cards from the same set that had different players, but both serial numbered to 99, both autographed, and both with a jersey patch. So, both cards have the same rarity. But one sells for $3 and the other sells for $300,000. I get it that one player is better than the other, but these companies are basically printing money. And now they are finding out that the auto's and patches are fake. The modern collector/investor people are nervous and noticing a crash on a huge percentage of modern cards. Some don't even see a future in cards, but they also don't own anything before 1933. I saw this coming a few years ago. Because I experenced it in 1985-1992. I would determine print run numbers over the last few years. This February of 2022, When the base topps card of Wander Franco was selling for $100+, I did some math and determined that the final print run for that card was going to be in the 1.5 to 2.0 million cards. With those type of numbers, you can tell the value will eventually tank and many "investors" will lose money. Also, cases of new type cards selling for $4000-$6000 and they get the "case hit". I'm seeing case hit cards from a few years ago for ten dollars, and auto's in the one dollar box. When those cards were the reason for spending thousands of dollars. And now the fake products made by Topps and others, the big crash will happen again. Real Soon. But original true vintage will be fine. We might see a bump or ripple downward for a little while, but things will be ok for us. Also, I've been telling all my shiney collector friends to dump their Trout cards. Don Mattingly was and still is my favorite player. His cards took a hard hit because of his back problems and I lost money on many of his cards, but I was a collector and had no intension of selling any of his cards for profit. I even buy his new shiney cards.

[Ronnie73]

Originally Posted by Mrc32

I don't think people were looking for discounts. I think the issues I had were people pricing things way higher than previous online auction results. This was my experience anyway. I'm not going to pay an extra $1000 because I can hold it in my hand when i buy. So I imagine a lot of those overpriced cards sat....

Exactly!! There is a YouTuber named Erik Jabbs, and he was on a mission to purchase a 1952 PSA 1 Topps Mantle. He looked on eBay and saw a nice one for 45K. When he got to the show, he saw the same seller had a table there. He asked about the Mantle on eBay. He was told it just sold a minute ago. So close, that the buyer was still there. The new owner said that he was probably going to sell the Mantle and asked how much he was going to offer. Erik said, $40K, the new owner said, SOLD!!. The dealer that originally had the card, had it listed for $50K, even though it was on eBay for $45K. The second guy jumped at the $40K offer, so I wonder how cheap he got it for? I'm guessing he made between $1000-$5000 in 60 seconds.

[bigred1]

If I understand correctly, Ebay fees eat a ton, in most cases 12%, if you have the card there you can save that and still make a deal. Prices seemed typical to me, some people need to get a grip on reality and some were reasonable.

[Exhibitman]

Understand the psychology of a card show, though. People expect to bargain at a show. They expect to bundle items and get a volume discount. If you put your cards up at your rock bottom prices, even if they are objectively fair, customers will still expect to haggle and get a discount, and if you refuse, there is a significant subclass who will actually get mad at you even if the prices are fair or even discounted to what is available at auction or on eBay.

As for eBay, buyers at shows also conveniently forget that dealers have to pay table fees, business license fees and miscellaneous travel expenses, and collect and remit sales tax. If I have an item on eBay in my store at $400, buyers expect I will shave off the entire eBay fee and take $360 for it. They forget my costs. I sell something at $400 in my eBay store sells, eBay collects and remits the sales tax on top of the sale price. if I sell it at a show I have to remit sales tax from that $400. I am going to set up at a show in Burbank August 26-28. Burbank sales tax is 10.25%. That $400 sale nets me about $360 because of the sales tax. it is roughly equivalent to my eBay fees. Then there are the costs. It cost me $500 to get the table and will cost me another $50 or so for parking over the weekend, and I am a local who can just go home after the show each day and brown-bag lunch and snacks. I have to sell a bunch of stuff just to break even.

All of these are reasons why you more or less have to ticket items above what you want to get for them at any show. Now, that said, there is also the abyss. When I see a $200 card ticketed at $500 at a dealer table, I just walk away because it is pretty clear that there is no reasonable deal to be made.

[gonefishin]

Originally Posted by Ronnie73

This is an interesting post. Mainly because most of us here collect true vintage items that are rare to begin with. Reguardless of player, the cards are old, rare, and were never meant to be a way of making money or seen as an investment, when they were produced. Because of that, the values tend to rise over a period of time. Now switch over to new products. In the 1970's, there was value noticed, but not really investment yet. In the mid 1980's, investment started to be an reason to purchase something. Early 1990's the realization of over producing cards, crashed the market, and nearly all the newer collector/investors disappeared. The old timers kept tradeing vintage. Nearly 25 years later, many of the original collector/investors from the mid 1980's returned and kinda repeated history. Except more money was involved and newer cards were shiney, serial numbered, auto'd, and patched. You could have two cards from the same set that had different players, but both serial numbered to 99, both autographed, and both with a jersey patch. So, both cards have the same rarity. But one sells for $3 and the other sells for $300,000. I get it that one player is better than the other, but these companies are basically printing money. And now they are finding out that the auto's and patches are fake. The modern collector/investor people are nervous and noticing a crash on a huge percentage of modern cards. Some don't even see a future in cards, but they also don't own anything before 1933. I saw this coming a few years ago. Because I experenced it in 1985-1992. I would determine print run numbers over the last few years. This February of 2022, When the base topps card of Wander Franco was selling for $100+, I did some math and determined that the final print run for that card was going to be in the 1.5 to 2.0 million cards. With those type of numbers, you can tell the value will eventually tank and many "investors" will lose money. Also, cases of new type cards selling for $4000-$6000 and they get the "case hit". I'm seeing case hit cards from a few years ago for ten dollars, and auto's in the one dollar box. When those cards were the reason for spending thousands of dollars. And now the fake products made by Topps and others, the big crash will happen again. Real Soon. But original true vintage will be fine. We might see a bump or ripple downward for a little while, but things will be ok for us. Also, I've been telling all my shiney collector friends to dump their Trout cards. Don Mattingly was and still is my favorite player. His cards took a hard hit because of his back problems and I lost money on many of his cards, but I was a collector and had no intension of selling any of his cards for profit. I even buy his new shiney cards.

This is a very good take Ronnie and I agree totally.

I understand, and don't blame dealers at the national for marking up their product in order to pay the overhead cost of being there while trying to make a little money for their effort. Heck, I wish there were still brick and mortar stores locally just to visit and see what's new. The overhead was too much, and it is so easier to sell on line. I hope the national never gets to that - don't you?

I've been collecting since the late 50s. I didn't really know that I was "Collecting" baseball cards when I was a kid. Of course, there weren't any methods for us kids to communicate except at school or at social events. I never had a home telephone until I was in the Marines and returned from Vietnam - got married - had children - and tried to make a living. My weekly allowance when I was a kid was .10 - not 10 dollars - 10 cents. I remember buying packs of 1963 Fleer baseball instead of Topps because Mr. Taylor at the grocery store would sell it to me cheaper than a pack of Topps. I cut cards from the back of cereal boxes and tried to trade them to kids for "real" baseball cards. I've attached a picture of a card I personally cut from one of those boxes. I still have all those cards I collected as a kid. One of my best friends that I grew up and went into the Marines with had a tremendous collection. His mother threw them out because they were taking up too much room in the closet. I was lucky - mine were still in a cigar box. Enough rambling about my collecting, and I will get on point.

If you're making a living at buying and selling cards, be concerned with what you buy and whom you collect. Vintage is always there and pretty much maintains it's value unless you drastically overpaid to begin with. There is no fear of the player doing drugs, committing murder, etc. etc. etc. You may not make a tremendous immediate profit, but you won't lose a lot in a down turn. A down turn is coming - it always does. Everyone that has collected has "lost" money on a player they thought was going to be the next big thing. Everyone has made a little money on players they had no idea they were so talented - regardless of sport. Even today's must have players; Trout, Soto, Tatis, etc. etc. None of them have won a Championship. Most often it takes 2 things to cement their legacy - a Championship and the Hall of Fame.

If you're a collector - keep collecting and enjoy the collection! Sell the cards or items that you don't covet and invest the profit into those items you do. Maybe it will bring you a little happiness and that's what it's about. There are groups of investors and business men running all over the country, buying up sealed boxes, cards, it seems like everything. However, I will tell you there are still vintage cards out there just waiting for a collector to stumble across. I still feel good when I look at those old beat up cards that I cut off cereal boxes 60 years ago.

My thoughts on the hobby over the next couple of years, with vintage defined as cards prior to 1970 (always a moving target). (1) Vintage will remain strong and pricing for "commons" will see a dramatic increase. (2) High end short prints of current players will drop dramatically unless they are in the "must have" category. (3) Card companies will continue to come up with innovative and creative ways to market and sell their cards - remember they don't collect - they sell. (4) PSA and Beckett will encounter serious problems regaining collector trust and patronage, while SGC will flourish because of their admirable performance over the last 2 years. At some point, dealers in sports cards will just say "no" to the reprehensible treatment they received by some grading companies. (5) Card collecting and investing will wane, but will continue. And when an individual athlete puts on a performance that's so great it stuns the world - the market will again flourish.

[ClementeFanOh]

It's fascinating to sit back and consider the word choices by people who
set up at shows (Adam is an example, Exhibitman) and people who go to
buy or trade (me). For example, I don't go to shows to "bargain"- I go to
find accurately priced cards. If I do my homework on card "x" and know it's
last 3 auctions have hammered at $500, and a seller has it at $650, I'm
going to (gently at first) gauge his subject matter knowledge and
willingness (or lack) to sell at the card's ongoing value. Red flag comments
such as "I've got too much in card x to sell it for $500" or "I think it has
potential to reach my figure of $650" are an immediate non starter. The
seller's bad buys and crystal ball notions are irrelevant. I may approach the
seller later if the show is ending soon, but I'm not going to pay the $650. I
don't consider this to be "bargaining", I call it proper business.

I'll close with a couple real life, recent examples. In July, I was at a decent
local show- maybe 190 tables, nice mix of vintage and new, many sports.
Two guys were selling Topps Frank Robinson rookies with the same grade
and by same grading company. One was selling for one hundred dollars less
than the other. I took a photo of the lesser price card and showed it to the
higher seller, and asked if he'd reconsider his price. He said no, so I walked
away (shaking my head in my own mind) and bought from the cheaper
seller. The high seller blatantly ignored the Iron Rule (my term) that most
pieces of cardboard don't have a fixed price, and that he isn't "entitled" to
a certain profit margin due to factors beyond the knowledge or care of the
buyer. That's not "bargaining" on my end, it's direct and timely competition
that he blithely chose to ignore...Second example, same show. A seller had
a 72 Topps Fisk rookie in a new SGC 5.5 holder. He wanted $30 (yes, $30)-
I gave him $30 and took it. No negotiation, "bargaining", etc. Here's $30,
thank you very much. I know there are buyers out there who have no
concept of card market realities, but for those who do, the mere act of
trying to get a seller to fair market value doesn't strike me as
unreasonable. Given that many sellers at shows are themselves buyers,
it shouldn't strike them as unreasonable either.

I'm sure some sellers will unleash the hounds on me. Can you give me a 2
minute head start so I have a chance to live, please? Trent King

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by ClementeFanOh

It's fascinating to sit back and consider the word choices by people who
set up at shows (Adam is an example, Exhibitman) and people who go to
buy or trade (me). For example, I don't go to shows to "bargain"- I go to
find accurately priced cards. If I do my homework on card "x" and know it's
last 3 auctions have hammered at $500, and a seller has it at $650, I'm
going to (gently at first) gauge his subject matter knowledge and
willingness (or lack) to sell at the card's ongoing value. Red flag comments
such as "I've got too much in card x to sell it for $500" or "I think it has
potential to reach my figure of $650" are an immediate non starter. The
seller's bad buys and crystal ball notions are irrelevant. I may approach the
seller later if the show is ending soon, but I'm not going to pay the $650. I
don't consider this to be "bargaining", I call it proper business.

I'll close with a couple real life, recent examples. In July, I was at a decent
local show- maybe 190 tables, nice mix of vintage and new, many sports.
Two guys were selling Topps Frank Robinson rookies with the same grade
and by same grading company. One was selling for one hundred dollars less
than the other. I took a photo of the lesser price card and showed it to the
higher seller, and asked if he'd reconsider his price. He said no, so I walked
away (shaking my head in my own mind) and bought from the cheaper
seller. The high seller blatantly ignored the Iron Rule (my term) that most
pieces of cardboard don't have a fixed price, and that he isn't "entitled" to
a certain profit margin due to factors beyond the knowledge or care of the
buyer. That's not "bargaining" on my end, it's direct and timely competition
that he blithely chose to ignore...Second example, same show. A seller had
a 72 Topps Fisk rookie in a new SGC 5.5 holder. He wanted $30 (yes, $30)-
I gave him $30 and took it. No negotiation, "bargaining", etc. Here's $30,
thank you very much. I know there are buyers out there who have no
concept of card market realities, but for those who do, the mere act of
trying to get a seller to fair market value doesn't strike me as
unreasonable. Given that many sellers at shows are themselves buyers,
it shouldn't strike them as unreasonable either.

I'm sure some sellers will unleash the hounds on me. Can you give me a 2
minute head start so I have a chance to live, please? Trent King

Hate to let you down, but honestly I find this quite reasonable.

I go to shows, estate sales, and make offers all the time. I will offer what I consider to be fair value with no argument, insult, or debate. If it’s a no, then it’s just fine with me. I thank them for the consideration and move on with no hard feelings. If the sticker price is fair, I don’t look to scrape more off the top. Just seems to make for a little bit less stress ya know?

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by ClementeFanOh

...I gave him $30 and took it. No negotiation, "bargaining", etc. Here's $30,
thank you very much...

Originally Posted by JustinD

...If the sticker price is fair, I don’t look to scrape more off the top. Just seems to make for a little bit less stress ya know?

+1

Sometimes, the best move is to just make the purchase. If it's something I want, and it's priced correctly, why screw around? I might save a few bucks here and there; however, think about the amount of time I'd waste dicking dickering with people over a few percent.

[Topnotchsy]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Related to the National… I saw a lot of posts this weekend about the National and cards being bought there. From my viewpoint, a ton of collectors went to the National for certain cards, found the cards, and, for lack of a better phrase, “paid up for them”. I also heard experiences that dealers at the National mostly had firm prices for quality cards. Little negation, prices are what they are.

One collector friend told me that he needed a certain card, found it, and paid asking price because in his mind, who knows what the card will be priced at in 6 months or a year later. I am curious if this mentality will continue the year and into 2023.

If the economy softens as many are anticipating (and has already to some degree), we could see a dramatic shift in the market over the next year or so. Or maybe not... who knows. (I anticipate softening across the board, but I've been wrong enough times before not to put much stock in my expectation)

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by gonefishin

Even today's must have players; Trout, Soto, Tatis, etc. etc. None of them have won a Championship. Most often it takes 2 things to cement their legacy - a Championship and the Hall of Fame.

Note to gonefishin: Juan Soto was part of the Washington Nationals 2019 World Series Championship team. Soto hit 5 homers in the 2019 playoffs, including 3 in the Nats' WS win over the Astros.

[gonefishin]

Originally Posted by ValKehl

Note to gonefishin: Juan Soto was part of the Washington Nationals 2019 World Series Championship team. Soto hit 5 homers in the 2019 playoffs, including 3 in the Nats' WS win over the Astros.

You are correct and I stand corrected - I'm so glad he is now a Padre!

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by icurnmedic

I’ve been thinking this recently as well. Hope not as I have a few nice rookies, but how can they not?

Broken Calf, Broken Oblique, Broken back. 4 lost seasons in his prime. Dave Kingman, better in his Prime than Trout with more Homers...EASY.

That's how.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by ClementeFanOh

It's fascinating to sit back and consider the word choices by people who
set up at shows (Adam is an example, Exhibitman) and people who go to
buy or trade (me). For example, I don't go to shows to "bargain"- I go to
find accurately priced cards. If I do my homework on card "x" and know it's
last 3 auctions have hammered at $500, and a seller has it at $650, I'm
going to (gently at first) gauge his subject matter knowledge and
willingness (or lack) to sell at the card's ongoing value. Red flag comments
such as "I've got too much in card x to sell it for $500" or "I think it has
potential to reach my figure of $650" are an immediate non starter. The
seller's bad buys and crystal ball notions are irrelevant. I may approach the
seller later if the show is ending soon, but I'm not going to pay the $650. I
don't consider this to be "bargaining", I call it proper business.

I'll close with a couple real life, recent examples. In July, I was at a decent
local show- maybe 190 tables, nice mix of vintage and new, many sports.
Two guys were selling Topps Frank Robinson rookies with the same grade
and by same grading company. One was selling for one hundred dollars less
than the other. I took a photo of the lesser price card and showed it to the
higher seller, and asked if he'd reconsider his price. He said no, so I walked
away (shaking my head in my own mind) and bought from the cheaper
seller. The high seller blatantly ignored the Iron Rule (my term) that most
pieces of cardboard don't have a fixed price, and that he isn't "entitled" to
a certain profit margin due to factors beyond the knowledge or care of the
buyer. That's not "bargaining" on my end, it's direct and timely competition
that he blithely chose to ignore...Second example, same show. A seller had
a 72 Topps Fisk rookie in a new SGC 5.5 holder. He wanted $30 (yes, $30)-
I gave him $30 and took it. No negotiation, "bargaining", etc. Here's $30,
thank you very much. I know there are buyers out there who have no
concept of card market realities, but for those who do, the mere act of
trying to get a seller to fair market value doesn't strike me as
unreasonable. Given that many sellers at shows are themselves buyers,
it shouldn't strike them as unreasonable either.

I'm sure some sellers will unleash the hounds on me. Can you give me a 2
minute head start so I have a chance to live, please? Trent King

We're not really at odds here; not everyone plays it this way. You seem to be a reasonable person. I am too, but when I am at a show I always (politely) ask for a discount even if I know the item is underpriced. If I don't get it, I simply buy the item or move along. But there are collectors out there who go from zero to full-bitch mode instantly, just no conflict coping skills at all. It isn't everyone or even most people, but it is a large enough subset to merit consideration when pricing stuff. It is the same in any client-oriented business. I actually had a client once tell me that she will never finalize a transaction unless the other side tells her to f*** off and starts to leave the table, because she then knows she got the best deal. Ironically, of course, the worst ones at the shows are the ones buying the least costly items. Discount on a dollar box single card? Are you kidding?

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

...Ironically, of course, the worst ones at the shows are the ones buying the least costly items. Discount on a dollar box single card? Are you kidding?

This is unfortunately true. I have set up dealer tables at many a card show. Some people seem to most feverishly collect stories of how they "beat someone up on the price" of items.

The cards seem secondary compared to the psychological "win" they've negotiated.

[ClementeFanOh]

Adam- yes, you are in the right regarding people who are chintzy enough to
protest over dollar boxes. That simply shouldn't happen, and those people
aren't bargaining- they are just morons. I was referring to collectors who
actually know their stuff and, for lack of a better term, refuse to be taken out
to the woodshed on prices. Your example is a horror story, plain and simple.
If I was at your table, I would NEVER presume to behave that way. Trent King

[Chicosbailbonds]

Love reading the war stories of buying and selling. I will say it’s a great time to snipe on eBay now, it doesn’t pertain to vintage. Too many know when to end their auctions on there when dealing with vintage.