T206 Price Opinions.....Elite 12 Question...

[RCFire82]

Thanks for the input so far gents. I'll definitely be following the end of the Chesbro currently listed.
As far as the Lundgren goes, does the Elite 12 still hold merit? I feel like that was researched a while ago, and at this point I'm wondering if current populations have caught up to more accurately show scarcity or, perhaps, non scarcity? An example being the pop reports for the Lundgren Chicago P350...it's all the way up to 18 (and that's just psa). I feel like some of the other Elite 12 numbers were a little higher than I would have expected as well. It's also interesting there are more Lundgren Chicago's graded than Kansas City...should the premium be the other way around?

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by RCFire82

Thanks for the input so far gents. I'll definitely be following the end of the Chesbro currently listed.
As far as the Lundgren goes, does the Elite 12 still hold merit? I feel like that was researched a while ago, and at this point I'm wondering if current populations have caught up to more accurately show scarcity or, perhaps, non scarcity? An example being the pop reports for the Lundgren Chicago P350...it's all the way up to 18 (and that's just psa). I feel like some of the other Elite 12 numbers were a little higher than I would have expected as well. It's also interesting there are more Lundgren Chicago's graded than Kansas City...should the premium be the other way around?

There are a minimum of two that don't belong in the Chicago 350 pop report.

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[Natedog]

Originally Posted by Pat R

There are a minimum of two that don't belong in the Chicago 350 pop report.

Attachment 491151

Attachment 491152

Not to mention the folks that crack and resubmit. Bottom line is there are FAR fewer of those than the 150.

[oldeboo]

Yeah, certainly the opportunity is there for these to be incorrectly slabbed. There are people hunting the elite 12 cards, which means a greater likelihood of getting slabbed by those that covet them. With the two mistakes, and probably more, that gets you down to a pop of 16.

With that said...

Chesbro Old Mill has a pop of 7
Lundgren Chicago P350 has a pop of 16

If I had to only choose one, I'd probably take the portrait of a HOFer with half the pop and a non-Piedmont back. I understand how you have to interpret the pop reports along with demand though.

[steve B]

The other thing to consider with pop reports for T206 and probably other sets is that more valuable/desirable cards are grade more often.

When I was really looking at a few groups pop reports what I saw was that for cards that should be equal, HOF players had about double the population of regular cards. That also worked to some extent for cards widely known for years to be tougher than the usual commons.

Lundgren Chicago is in that category. So I'd expect to see twice as many compared to the KC version. That the two are nearly equal makes me think that there are probably 2x as many KC as Chicago. That's complicated by the KC card being slightly tougher than regular commons.

For an extreme example, when I was doing that looking up I saw that there were more Magies graded than the Magee portrait. But it's obvious that doesn't come close to getting the comparable rarity correct.

[fkm_bky]

Well, if you look back at the latest REA auction and you see that OM Waddell Portrait sold for $8K in similar condition with a combined pop report of 12, you got a great deal on the Chesbro. A lesser quality OM Dahlen Brooklyn just ended on EBay for a little over $1,000.00.

I think you can safely say it was a fair price to pay for the Chesbro. It's a beaut!

Bill

[puckpaul]

Do you think the big premiums being paid for Old Mill will sustain? For the right cards they seem to be a higher multiple than historically. Are the pops proving it to be more scarce than thought? Or really depends on the card? What about for Southern Leaguers? They seem to be more easily found in Old Mill, especially judging from my collection.