Caramel scarcity today? Early E cards.....

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Posted By: leon

Since there have been many many auctions and finds of our beloved caramel cards, in the past few years, where would you rank them in scarcity now? Lets concentrate only on E90-1 thru E107 since those are the main early ones. We can do the others later. I know Pete Calderon's site is a great resource but things have changed a bit over the years.....my thoughts....and these are very debatable....


from least scarce to most scarce:


E90-1
E91
E92- Dockman
E93
E95
E90-3
E98
E96
E92- Nadja
E106
E101
E102
E90-2
E94
E97
E92- Crofts Candy
E92- Crofts Cocoa
E104-1
E104-2
E103
E105
E107
E99
E100
E104-3


edited typo

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Posted By: Bobby Binder

Leon,

I have seen more E107's available these last few months then ever before. REA had what about 80 of then in the last auction. Also seeing them more on eBay albeit with high prices but still more often then a lot of other sets you have ahead of them.

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Posted By: leon

I realize what you are saying and agree, however, I don't think they (E107) are as common as they seem to be because of exactly what you said (a few larger groups coming out recently)......and as I said...my list is extremely debatable....I am sure I could place many of them in 1-3 different positions, up or down, and still feel comfortable with the list.....good thought though....

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Posted By: Anthony S.

Virtually all of the e107's that have shown up on Ebay in recent months are from this years REA auction. The fact that the same ones are just recirculating makes it appear they're more common than they are.

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Posted By: Wesley

Almost all of the caramel sets listed above contain thirty cards or less. The exceptions, of course are the E90-1 set with 118 cards and the E107 set with approximately 150 cards.

Since there are more subjects in E90-1 and E107 set, this makes scarcity harder to measure than the E90-2 or E104-2 sets which have only eleven players. If you are just looking for just a E107 type card and do not care who you get, then you can find an example without too much difficulty. But to find an example of a particular player in the E107 set is much tougher.

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Posted By: Matt

Can we assume inaccuracies in the pop reports exist generally uniformly over all issues?

That is to say, pop reports are inaccurate for any number of reasons - people cracking slabs, cards that have never been slabbed, cards resubmitted multiple times, etc. If those reasons can be assumed to apply uniformly to all issues, then a comparative analysis of the pop reports would be enlightening.

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Posted By: Steve Murray

"But to find an example of a particular player in the E107 set is much tougher."

Agree. Took me ten years to find him.

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Posted By: Bryan Long

I am no expert on caramels, but it is awefully hard to find e103 cards. I sort of discount the major auction houses because I simply cannot afford 99.9% of what they have to offer. But, even the e103 cards are hard to find in those auctions. I don't pay a ton of attention to the other sets. I do think that e93 cards have been taking off lately depsite being pretty easy to obtain.

.

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Posted By: JimB

As somebody who just completed his E94 set at the National after years of work on it, I must say that I was a bit surprised at how difficult it was. I knew it would be tough, but it was tougher than I thought. Maybe it is because TBob is hoarding about 10% of the total E94s in existence.
JimB

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Posted By: Todd C

regarding an ealier comment.

Can we assume inaccuracies in the pop reports exist generally uniformly over all issues?

That is to say, pop reports are inaccurate for any number of reasons - people cracking slabs, cards that have never been slabbed, cards resubmitted multiple times, etc.





Almost all of my collection is RAW/UNGRADED. I do own a few cards that are graded but few. It would be very interesting to know how many ungraded cards are still out there. How many are still in grandpa's attic waiting to be discovered ?

I have not sent the cards in to be graded simply based on the cost to grade them and then storing them due to the holder size. I hoep someday to get them graded but for now they look good in their current holders.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I might move the Croft's Candy and Cocoa down a little, especially the black blacks. I don't think those are tougher than E97. The blue backs are tougher and the red ones could arguably be first on the list.

And while a common E90-1 is among the easier caramels, the tough ones would be in the top third of the list.

Also interesting how far the E106's have fallen. I remember a thread a few years back where Leon speculated that E106 could be tougher than E107. I guess those populations change over time.

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Posted By: leon

I was hoping folks would cut and paste my list and do their own......but otherwise I didn't go by any freakin' pop report as I think they are stupid. When someone says "Pop" to me I immediately think of "POP, POW, BANG, WHAM, SLAM".....like in Batman.....I used to love those fights they got into...but I digress

I went from the seat of my pants on these....since I do this stuff every single day, as many of us do, I think many of us are smarter than the pop reports.....especially since there are still tons of ungraded cards they don't take into account....

Barry- I used to think E106's were really tough, just like E90-3's.....but then several larger groups of each came out and I changed my thinking....it happens.

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Posted By: Ed Hans

Excellent list, Leon. Only quibbling, but I would put E95 before E93; E101s up about 5 spots; and E105s up about 4 spots. Something like this:

E90-1
E91
E92-Dockman
E95
E92-Nadja-St. Louis
E101
E93
E90-3
E98
E96
E102
E90-2
E92 Crofts Candy
E92-Crofts Cocoa
E94
E106
E97
E105-wide variation in difficulty of individual subjects.
E92-Nadja-Other
E104-1
E104-2
E103
E107
E99
E100
E104-3

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Posted By: Steve Murray

Interesting to see E100 so low (high scarcity) even more so than the E107's. While I agree (unless as previously stated you're just looking for one individual card) I would shuffle the E100 with the E99 as I think they are more scarce.

Also there are variations of E97 that rival even some of the most scarce listed issues. The "proof" for one and the "blank back" for another.

Finally there is M131 which could be classified as a "caramel" since it is really an E94 in disguise.

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Posted By: JimB

I would generally agree with Ed's order, though I would put E94 below E106 and E97.
JimB

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Posted By: Matt

"especially since there are still tons of ungraded cards they don't take into account...."

that is exactly the question in my post - can we assume that the ungraded cards are equal over all issues?

For example, if one card has a population of 20 and another a population of 200, certainly those are not accurate numbers, but would it be safe to assume that whatever percentage of cards that are ungraded/regraded/cracked is the same for both cards - i.e. if we say the numbers are off by 100%, then we say that there are probably around 40 of the first card and 400 of the other? So in effect, the inaccuracies in the population reports are canceled out when comparing with other issues?

I agree pop reports are inaccurate, I just don't think they have nothing to add to our discussion.

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Posted By: leon

I will say the pop reports can be somewhat of an indicator of what is actually graded....as we know many people play the crack and resubmit game. Personally, I would guess that the graded percentages would be somewhat reflective, population wise, of the ungraded ones..... As I said I threw my list out there from the top of my head based on what I see on a daily basis...nothing scientific about it..

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Posted By: Matt

Here is a small comparative analysis for whatever it lends to the discussion:

Due to laziness, I took only 5 players; Donovan, Dooin, Evers, Lobert and Mathewson and ran their combined SGC+PSA pop reports (the best analysis would use all players across all issues, but this gives a rough approximation, which is, at best, all this kind of analysis useful for anyway). I didn't want to use any players that had variations within an issue (exit Cobb, Wagner, Bender, etc). The results below are average cards per player (rounded), and every issue reported has at least 2 players above included (obviously, if, for example, only 3 of the players were part of an issue, such as the E98s, the average is only on those 3).

This information is more relevant to a discussion of rarity, then it is to one of scarcity. Also, I don't think there's any ranking that can be drawn from issues within a few numbers of each other; to that end, I've grouped them into rough categories.

E95 (119)

E93 (59)

E90-1 (52)

E98 (42)
E92 (39)
E102 (36)
E94 (35)
E96 (33)

E101 (15)
E91B (15)
E103 (14)
E91A (14)
E106 (11)

E92 Candy (7)
E105 (6)
E92 Cocoa (5)

E104-III (3)
E92 Nadja - non STL (per Peter's suggestion) (2)

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Posted By: Peter Thomas

Matt, I think that E92 Nadja's are probably overstated as to relative rarity since some cards(St. Louis) are quite common, but others very scare and no St. Louis cards are in the group of 5. I am quite sure that Donovan does not exist in the Nadja's at all, but I do think that the groupings that you have put together are quite accurate.

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Posted By: Alan U

Total PSA graded cards divided by # of cards in the set = avg # per indiv card. In no ways close to being perfect, but another way to look at it:


E95 Philadelphia Car---- 42.16
E93 Standard Caramel---- 33.37
E90-1 American Caramel-- 18.30
E98 Set Of 30----------- 14.80
E96 Philadelphia-------- 14.67
E92 Dockman------------- 13.94
E90-2 American Caramel-- 13.00
E102 Set Of 25---------- 12.60
E94 Close Candy--------- 11.20
E103 Williams Caramels-- 8.33
E97 Ca Briggs Co.------- 8.07
E101 'Set Of 50'-------- 7.58
E90-3 American Caramel-- 5.85
E91 American Caramel---- 5.52
E106 American Caramel--- 4.10
E92 Nadja Caramels------ 3.04
E92 Croft's Candy------- 2.86
E105 Mello-Mint--------- 2.82
E104 Nadja I------------ 2.56
E92 Croft's Cocoa------- 0.98
E104 Nadja ii----------- 0.64
E107-------------------- 0.63
E104 Nadja iii---------- 0.06

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Posted By: Matt

Peter - that's a good point; I'll make a notation on my list to that point.

Alan - that's interesting - the results are fairly similar. I'd want SGC included also because it's possible certain issues are more frequently seen by PSA vs SGC and vice versa.

One question about your method - when an issue had variations/multiple poses, did you count it as one card or two? For example, the E102 Shmidt/Smith probably was an error that got fixed and the total for both variations should count as one card as that was the whole run; on the other hand, the 2 E92 Dockman Doyle poses probably were issued simultaneously (as each one has a population above the average card in the set) and should be counted as separate cards for the purpose of an average.

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Posted By: robert a

E90-1 (easy examples)
E91
E95
E92 Dockman
E96
E93
E98
E90-3
E90-2
E101
E92 Nadja
E102
E104-1
E106
E90 (toughies)
E97
E94
E104-2
E92- Crofts Candy
E92- Crofts Cocoa
E105
E103
E107
E99
E100
E104-3

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Posted By: Alan U

Matt, I was going to include SGC, but it was taking too much time to get all the issues. In the PSA site I could just cut and paste from a few years.

I just used the set sizes from the oldcardboard site.

-Alan

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Posted By: Tony Andrea

I know I going to sound bias here but I think Robert A, (caramelcard) has hit on a really good point here with his breakdowns. I like how he has broken down the E90-1 set into two separate categories. "Easiest" -vs- the "Toughies". Anyone who has ever tried putting this set together knows there is a pretty substantial grouping of some really tough cards that rarely pop up for sale. Yes you see the constant sprinkling of some E90-1 commons on Ebay every week, but out of the 120 card set there's many you might not see for years, if ever. I think the placement of these so called "Toughies" from the E90-1 set he has put in middle of his list is very accurate IMO.

Tony

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Posted By: Dave F

Tony-

I agree to a point with your point on the E90's easy for toughies....but that could be said for alot of sets couldn't it?

There are many E105's that you can always find...and then there are some I have never seen.

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Posted By: Tony Andrea

Hi Dave -
Yes, but E105's are already low on everybody's list as far as scarcity, and rightfully so.
There's just no way E90-1's as a whole should be at the top of the list as far as the easiest
to obtain. Breaking them down into two categories was a very accurate idea by Robert, thats all.

edited for grammar...

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Posted By: Marc S.

E-104-IIIs

being the toughest. Although I can absolutely confirm that SGC has graded the vast majority of these I've ever seen graded. That there are a number of uncatalogued examples still known speaks volumes. It is only its lack of star power, I think, that keeps people from caring about this issue. For a long time, E107s were outselling E104-IIIs, in low grade...

Marc

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Posted By: Bob

In general, high grade E94s are becoming impossible to find and all E94s are becoming tougher and tougher. They are going in to collections and not being flipped or being rehashed on ebay or in auctions.
High grade olive background E94s are very rare. Although violets and golds are tougher than olives (and blues and reds and greens), higher grade olives, for some bizarre reason, are extremely tough.

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Posted By: Matt

I added Leach, Lord and Lajoie to the calculations for additional accuracy and to include a few more issues. The updated list is below with some observations:

E95 (97)

E93 (60)
E90-1 (60)

E96 (43)
E98 (43)
E92 Dockman (43)
E102 (38)

E94 (32)

E103 (19)
E91C (18)
E101 (16)
E91B (16)
E91A (14)
E106 (12)

E92 Candy (8)
E105 (7)
E92 Cocoa (6)

E107 (4)
E104-III (3)
E92 Nadja (non St Louis) (3)


As this analysis is about rarity, I expected it to differ somewhat with the lists of scarcity above. A few differences I noticed, although there are more:
E91s:
Each of the players that have a card in the E91 issue had a population between 13 and 22. That makes them pretty rare - comparable to E106s and E103s, and much more rare then E94s (range of 29-36 instances per player) and E98s (34-48) yet they seem to be much more readily available. I'd guess that is due to their relative unattractiveness.

E101s vs E102s:
E101s seems to be much more rare then the E102s. The range of population per player in E101s is 9-24, compared with between 22 and 50 cards existing for each E102 player. Here's a look at the raw data (E101/E102):
Matty (24/44)
Dooin (16/28)
Evers (18/45)
Donovan (9/22)
Lobert (11/30)
Lajoie (18/50)

E103s:
These were more common then I was expecting. The 6 players who had an E103 issue averaged a population of 19. The raw data:
Matty 29
Dooin 16
Donovan 11
Leach 17
Lajoie 22
Lord 17

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Posted By: brian p

My list, separated in groups to indicate relative ease of locating examples (does not consider scarcities within the set). I have left a few sets off (E92 Nadja, E104-1 etc.) because I have not been as observant in certain sets and thus not comfortable classifying them. All of the ones I have left off would be in one of the three harder to find categories. I made a list about six years ago, and the order has slightly changed, especially in the harder categories. Dang it, if we don't have the freedom to change our minds on scarcity when it comes to caramels, then what do we have? And by the way, E91's should be separated into their three series, which thus makes them fall from easy to obtain into the More Difficult category.

EASY
E90-1
E92- Dockman
E95
E93

MORE DIFFICULT
E91B
E91C
E98
E91A
E96
E102

TOUGH
E101
E106
E94
E97
E90-2
E90-3

VERY DIFFICULT
E103
E107
E105

OUCH!
E99
E100
E104-3



Brian