|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Dylan
How many collectors/dealers would actually prefer the baseball collectables and card market to fall? If it did fall would you prefer a small drop or a black tuesday? I suppose there are those collectors that have tens of thousands invested and would just assume the market continue sky rocketing. But im beginning to realize that if such a fervent rate continued i could eventually be priced out of many of the cards i want to someday own. But im a fairly new collector and ld like to hear what others have to say. What direction would be ideal for your collecting needs? |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: John S
If the past thirty years is any indication, values will occasionally plateau but not drop. I have mixed feelings regarding your question. A significant proportion of my expendable income is spent on collectibles. If values dropped (Black Tuesday style) I would be definitely lose a lot on paper. However, I would collect as before (probably a lot more) because I enjoy the hobby and the history. I believe that because so many others share my latter sentiments that the values will never truly crash. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Dylan
I also find plataeus likely but a large drop dependent on something along the lines of a global economic catosrophe. I personally wouldnt mind seeing a break from the upscale surge. A plateau for a few years would give me a chance to put together a real collection. Ive heard people say that prices will fixate soon but i havent seen the climb stop yet... |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Dave
I don't spend thousands of dollars on any one card, but even dropping $25-$250 on a card I'd really rather the market not ever totally crash. I could care less if prices stayed status quo...I'm not in it for investment purposes but don't want the money I've spent to be worth nil on the cards either...in other words if push came to shove...jobloss, family emergency or what not...I'd hope I could at least somewhat get back the money I've put into cards if need be. |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Dan Kravitz
If guys need money, the first cards to sell is the stuff on the bottom. Common or HOFers from common sets will be so common that they could lose all value, but there will always be a strong market for super rare or scarce HOFers. Most guys who own these super cards will not sell in any market and have enough money to wait out the storm. It's not hard to imagine a shift in mortgage rates or job layoffs to get the ball rolling. Imagine having a box of cardboard or paying your mortgage. Not hard to see where a slight shift in the economy could ruin your collection. However, there will always be someone waiting for the disaster to buy up rare or scarce cards. Reality is that there will be a downturn. Can not keep going up. Just can't! However, I would bet that if you can weather the storm, the next uptick will be higher than we have ever seen. Prices in our lifetime could be 5x-10x where they are today. Hold tight... If you can. |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Frank Wakefield
I'd love it. I think it would be great for the hobby. |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Jay
Scarce cards come out when the market is strong. If the market crashed better material would dry up and collecting would become alot more difficult. |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Al C.risafulli
Frankly, I wouldn't care either way. |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Dan Kravitz
Frank - If you hope there is a crash, then you are somewhat hoping for a crash in other markets. They are linked in that people buy cards when they have extra money. If the economy is bad and people are not buying (or a downturn), that means we are in more trouble than just owning worthless cardboard. I don't think anyone should hope for a crash, but if it comes, who of us is really ready? |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Frank Wakefield
Guys, I intended to close with the idea that I did not desire a crash from which we did not recover. A crash, yes. But then the market slowly creeps back up. |
#11
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: bruce dorskind
|
#12
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: john/z28jd
Right now or anytime soon i couldnt imagine card prices just plummeting because theres too many people like myself that would spend just as much as they do now but hope to get more cards. Then we would just be competing against each other and driving the price back up.I think it would also lead to more people starting to collect the older cards who normally couldnt afford to spend alot.They might be able to buy a few cards before prices went back up and that could get them hooked on the cards and they buy more,or just take a certain percentage of cards off the market making them harder to find in the process. |
#13
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Dave
While many of the more rare cards may continue to rise....I don't think I see that for T206's and other commonly found vintage cards. I don't ever foresee a day where T206 PSA 1 commons that go for $20-$25 now going for $100...and a PSA 4 Addie Joss that goes for $175 now going for $400....maybe i'm naive..but I still believe there is too many T206's for that kind of jump to ever take place..no matter what the rest of vintage cards do. |
#14
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Dylan
Mostly posted this as food for thought. I dont envision anytype of crash ever affecting the rarities in the hobby. price change is cyclical. I would like to see a slow down, do some purchasing, and inevitably the market will pick up again and in all likelihood soar to new heights. However as we stand now no slow down in sight. And like Bruce said even if a plethora of really bad things occured the valuable/rare cards are recession proof, it would take a nuclear holocaust for fine art and rare baseball collectibles to be rendered valueless. |
#15
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: barrysloate
While many collectors have said they wouldn't mind seeing the market collapse so that they could buy cards on the cheap, it would probably be a bad thing if the bottom fell out. It would mean something really awful is happening in the world, and it would cast a feeling of gloom on the hobby. Best thing might be a little slowdown, so there would be less panic buying and less volatility. A quieter and calmer market might actually be a more relaxing one. |
#16
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Joe Jones
I have recently started dreaming about baseball cards! I guess I have a problem Last night I went back in time (Early 70's?) and was able to buy all sorts of cards. The funny thing is that I only ended up buying cards that are fairly easy to find today and that do not cost much today. I didnt go after a T206 Wagner, I just wanted to complete a few sets I am working on. |
#17
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: T E
As stated several times on this thread, it would take a MAJOR global disaster, or more likely, a series of global disasters with long-term implications, to crash this market. Great Depression stuff. |
#18
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Jason L
regarding how the high end market works, and the importance of placing these expenditures within the context of people's lives. |
#19
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Ted Zanidakis
I don't know if anyone raised this factor ? |
#20
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: JimB
It is funny how everybody who said they would like the market to tank don't seem to consider that they may have less to spend on cards as well at a time when economic conditions are such that the baseball card market tanks. If it tanks, it would be precisely because people like us do not have the money to spend on cards. |
#21
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Jason L
I tried to express that thought above, albeit probably not in a terribly eloquent fashion...of course, exactly right...rising tide lifts all boats, but don't forget what happens at low tide |
#22
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Mike
What is the definition of "bottom falling out"? 25% drop? 50% drop? etc. etc. They become worthless? I am a collector, and always have been I have thousands of cards, and I believe I have only sold 4 in the last 20 years. I sold one card a year ago, and was able to pay my taxes, and take my wife to hawaii. So I am not opposed to the high heights that some cards have attained in the last 15 years. But to be brutally honest, I would not mind seeing a drop in prices. It would make my hobby ambitions easier to attain. And it might also allow some younger people, or less fortunate folks to get involved in the hobby. My 22 year old son, only sees this hobby, as something adults do. . Which is kind of sad. Again, being a collector only, I wouldn't mind seeing a drop in prices. maybe 25%. |
#23
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: E, Daniel
If there were a national/global reason for such a depression in the market, we'd all have more pressing issues to think about - like...... welcoming back into the home the son who never got married but still eats you out of house and home . |
#24
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: barrysloate
One of the things that will likely keep the market strong for a long time to come is the depth of interest in rare baseball artifacts of all kinds, with vintage cards near the top of that list. Lots of avid buyers would be the best way for prices to stay strong, but like I and others have said the world can be an unpredictable place. There are surely many scenarios where baseball cards would not be everyone's first priority. But you should never root for any market to collapse, because that would no doubt mean that some other bad stuff is going on. |
#25
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Jeff Lichtman
How about a major drop in the market -- for about a month? Oh, and I'd like some notice beforehand too. |
#26
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: peter chao
Jeff, |
#27
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Jeff Lichtman
I don't think so, Peter. I can barely sit through a baseball game on TV these days but my attraction to cards has not waned. The historical significance of the cards, attachment to bygone eras, etc. is what does it for me. The fact that the vintage card market continues to grow while today's kids barely show interest in current baseball cards suggests to me that our market will only be hit as part of a larger economic hit we all take. |
#28
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Judge Dred (Fred)
Barring the doom and gloom scenario for a total collapse in the card market, I would love to see the card market DUMP. Again, that would be without a catastrophe occuring. I think I could live with card prices where they were 10 years ago, heck, I'd take card prices from 5 years ago. As a hypothetical question - if the bottom fell out.... |
#29
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: LetsGoBucs
Stamps were the "baseball cards" of the mid-late 70's....They were widely collected...investors got involved...the prices attracted more collectors...prices went up and up.... |
#30
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: E, Daniel
For me, stamps are stamps - with pretty or interesting pictures on them, some of which exist in relatively small surviving numbers. |
#31
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: barrysloate
Jeff- your comment about advance notice is similar to my take on the stock market. I look at stocks that went way up the day before, and say to myself "I should have bought some of that yesterday." The fact that I never even heard of the company is irrelevant. |
#32
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Darren
I can only dream that the bottom will fall out. |
#33
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: peter chao
Darren, |
#34
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Rich Klein
The parts of the market which stay the strongest in any "vintage" correction are the best possible conditioned cards and the worst conditioned cards. |
#35
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: barrysloate
Good piece of wisdom Rich. And you have been watching market trends as long as anyone in this hobby. |
#36
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Dan Kravitz
Rich- Need to add one notation to your theory... rarity or scarcity of certain issues need to be taken ito account. Those will undoubtedly stay strong. One reason for that is that they will contiunue to sell privately, and just like land... They ain't building any more of it. |
#37
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Darren
Peter, |
#38
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: peter chao
Guys, |
#39
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: john/z28jd
I agree with Darren,if the bottom drops out im buying as many cards as i can before the price goes back up and if it never did go back up then id have what i would consider the ultimate collection hopefully by the time im done. In all honesty i cant see that ever happening because there would be too many collectors who wont sell their cards now for twice what theyre worth so why would they sell them then for alot less? |
#40
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: barrysloate
Good philosophy of life John. I admire your values. |
#41
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: peter chao
John, |
#42
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Dan Kravitz
Anyone who thinks that the vintage card market is going to crash and your just going to buy the cards you have always wanted, think again. If the market truly crashes, most likely our entire economy will be headed in the wrong direction and there will be some major problems in our society. None of you will be looking for a card if you need to feed your family or pay the gas bill. I do however; believe there will be a slight adjustment to prices as every market experiences. That is not a crash. Most collectors wouldn't just sell off their collections unless they had some major personal problems or they were getting out of the hobby. So, let's hope things continue at a reasonable pace and we all collect happily ever after. |
#43
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: warshawlaw
Interesting topic; perhaps the high level of responsiveness reflects a little anxiety on the part of would-be buyers?? |
#44
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: E, Daniel
Uh oh Adam, I didn't think we were talking mortgage money |
#45
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: john/z28jd
To Dan K,since i have mentioned it twice that id buy alot of cards,im sure im in a different boat than most people on here. I barely make above minimum wage,i work at a restaurant with free food and drinks which i take advantage of and i have a meager rent to pay,besides that its a cell phone bill and car insurance and thats it,no wife no kids,no dependants unless you count my dog,and even his bills i share with my brother.So chances are ill still be in the same situation even if theres a large change in the market. I can move back home and pay no rent and use a family car and can my cell phone if it got real bad so technically i could then work part time somewhere and still be in the same financial situation i am now |
#46
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: warshawlaw
Just that it would have to be that magnitude to take them away from me. Otherwise, they'll have to pry my cards from my cold, dead fingers. |
#47
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: MikeU
Personally, I would love to some "bearish" behavior. All the more for me to buy. |
#48
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Ted Zanidakis
I like your style of thinking. I have cards in my collection that I have been offered big $$$$, and |
#49
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: john/z28jd
Ted i also have a strong hope that people start burning up cards from the 80's and early 90's so the ones i have will be worth something.Id sell the doubles of them and then put the money i made right back into the vintage card market to help keep it strong |
#50
|
|||
|
|||
If the bottom fell out...
Posted By: Ted Zanidakis
I still have 10's of 1000's of useless cards from 1981 to the early '90s. Boy, are you're right, |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
55 bowman set. How do you fell about it? | Archive | Postwar Baseball Cards Forum (Pre-1980) | 13 | 10-05-2007 04:32 PM |
Click to bottom of page | Archive | Postwar Baseball Cards Forum (Pre-1980) | 14 | 08-14-2007 08:35 PM |
W/Strip card? fell from hole in my NY tenement ceiling yesterday | Archive | Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions | 11 | 12-17-2006 12:47 PM |
Re: t213 with name on top and bottom | Archive | Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions | 18 | 10-24-2005 06:19 PM |
From the bottom of my heart, I believe | Archive | Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions | 10 | 05-28-2004 10:47 AM |